NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Picks: South Region (March Madness)
We’re now into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, as the Sweet 16 gets underway on Thursday. Let’s break down the two matchups in the South region of the March Madness bracket. These games carry plenty of intrigue and both should be tight battles. We get a Big Ten rematch between Iowa and Nebraska, before Illinois and Houston wrap up the night in a marquee showdown. Here are a few of our top NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 picks.
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NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Game Picks (South Region)
Check out these game previews for both Sweet 16 matchups in the South region. Find out which key stats, trends, and metrics are worth paying attention to. We’ll also outline how each team got here and look at the betting odds for the pair of games. Enjoy these Sweet 16 game previews as you place your NCAA Tournament college basketball picks and bets.
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook)
No. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes vs. No. 4 Nebraska Cornhuskers
It's not often we get a same-conference matchup in the Sweet 16, but that's the case here. Iowa and Nebraska already faced each other twice in the regular season, with each winning at home. The Big Ten rivals will now meet for the third time in a little over a month with an Elite Eight berth on the line.
Iowa just pulled off an unlikely upset over defending national champion Florida in the Round of 32. The Hawkeyes clinched the victory with a three-pointer by backup center Alvaro Folgueiras in the final seconds. They also impressively held the No. 1 seed Gators to one of their lowest point totals of the year.
Meanwhile, Nebraska defeated No. 5 seed Vanderbilt in the second round to advance. The Cornhuskers survived a back-and-forth, close game that was also decided in the final few seconds. Braden Frager dramatically scored the winning layup with two seconds remaining, before Vandy's Tyler Tanner nearly drained a half-court heave to steal it.
Vanderbilt and Nebraska will now have to regroup this week after both endured thrilling battles in the Round of 32. It's currently a tight spread with a lower over/under before the familiar foes and conference rivals face off yet again. Let's break down a few keys to the matchup.
Perimeter shooting is always the big deciding factor for Nebraska's offense. The Cornhuskers attempt the 14th-most three-pointers per game in the country, and they're tough to beat when those start going in. That was evident in the first two rounds as they made 14 threes against Troy, and then went 9-for-19 from deep (47%) vs. Vanderbilt.
Iowa will certainly try to limit that perimeter scoring. The Hawkeyes rank 30th nationally in three-point attempts allowed per game while playing at the fifth-slowest tempo in the sport. When they beat Nebraska earlier this season, the Cornhuskers shot just 5-for-24 from three-point range and managed just 52 points.
If Nebraska can't get going from deep, then the offense can struggle at times. The Cornhuskers don't get many second-chance scoring opportunities or get to the line often, ranking 311th nationally in offensive rebounding rate and 356th in free-throw attempts per game. Those issues have cost them in a few close losses already this year.
On the other end, Nebraska boasts the sixth-best defensive efficiency in the country (per KenPom) and allows just 65.8 PPG (15th nationally). The defense will need to be on point as Iowa ranks 18th in the country in effective field-goal percentage. More specifically, the Cornhuskers' three-point defense will play a major role.
Nebraska is holding opponents to just 30.1% from beyond the arc this year, ranking eighth nationally. However, the Huskers also give up the seventh-most three-point attempts per game. They regularly force opponents into tough perimeter looks late in the shot clock. Yet, if teams get rolling from three, then the defense is vulnerable.
Iowa, meanwhile, is shooting a poor 31.0% on threes over the past 12 games. That ranks 283rd in the country during this stretch since February 11. The Hawkeyes prefer to score inside, ranking 13th nationally in two-point shooting percentage this year.
No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 2 Houston Cougars
We have chalk in the bottom half of the South region bracket. No. 3 seed Illinois will take on No. 2 seed Houston, with the winner heading to the Elite Eight. This is arguably the best Sweet 16 matchup on Thursday or Friday. Let's break it down.
Houston has dominated its first two opponents so far. The Cougars beat Idaho by 31 points in the opening round and then handled Texas A&M in an 88-57 victory. Illinois has also started out with a pair of impressive results. The Fighting Illini first dominated Penn by 35 points before earning an 11-point victory over VCU in the Round of 32.
This is an intriguing matchup because it features one of the country's top offenses against an elite defense. Illinois ranks second nationally in KenPom offensive efficiency while averaging 84.7 points per game (17th in Division I). Meanwhile, Houston is fourth in defensive efficiency and allows just 62.3 PPG (second).
Illinois has been able to lean on its high-powered offense all year, but Houston can certainly hold the Illini in check. The Cougs defend the perimeter well while holding opponents to the ninth-lowest shooting percentage from two-point range. They also force turnovers at a top-15 rate in the sport. Conversely, Illinois is ninth nationally in offensive turnover rate, third in offensive rebounding, and 20th in two-point offense.
It will be fascinating to see which team has the edge and can assert its dominance when Illinois is trying to score. Houston's hounding defense can suffocate even the best offenses, plus Kelvin Sampson's squad has routinely proven that in March over the years. Illinois still has a slew of versatile scorers who should be up for the challenge.
On the other end, Houston and Illinois both have their respective strengths and flaws on offense/defense. The Cougars are 10th in offensive efficiency, while the Illini are 24th in defense. One key stat to watch is the turnovers. Houston avoids turning it over at the fifth-best rate in the country and Illinois struggles in that department, ranking 365th in defensive turnover rate. That's dead last in the entire sport.
Even so, Illinois has a glaring edge in another key area. The Illini allow the fewest free throws per game in the whole country. They do an exceptional job at avoiding fouling while having length at every position. Meanwhile, Houston struggles to get to the free throw line, ranking 351st in foul shots attempted per game.