NCAA Tournament Teams to Fade: West Region (2025)
We made it, folks! The day I've been waiting for since April 9 last year, the day after UConn took down Purdue in the 2024 NCAA Championship. March Madness truly is like nothing else, and now is the time for the best water cooler chats, the time to get your nine-year-old to pick teams randomly, and they will do better than your bracket because of the team's colors. It's inevitable. What a time to be alive.
In this article, I'm covering teams to fade from the West Region. The region that features Florida at the top is one of the strongest in the entire tournament but there are a few teams that I'm going to fade from making a deep run and I'd love to tell you why.
Here are the biggest teams on upset alert out of the West region.
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Memphis Tigers
Let's start with the obvious here. It feels a little bit like a cheat putting Memphis here, considering they aren't even favored in the first round, but they're still a top-five seed so I'm throwing them in here. Colorado State (49th) actually ranks higher than Memphis (51st) in neutral court games this year, per Bart Torvik. The Tigers defense ranked 147th in those same neutral games.
Even if Memphis manages a first-round upset, Maryland is my favorite four-seed in the field and I can't expect them to make it past the Terrapins. I haven't even mentioned the Tyrese Hunter injury! He's the best shooter on the team and will seriously limit Memphis' spacing and ability to take advantage of Colorado State's middling perimeter defense. Everything screams to fade Memphis here, so I wouldn't overthink it.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Listen, I wouldn't be surprised if Texas Tech makes a deep run here and puts together a few wins. They actually have the best Sweet Sixteen odds of any 3 seed this year, but the Chance McMillian and Darrion Williams injuries are just a bit too concerning for me. After both missing the Big 12 tournament game against Arizona, they appear to be on track to play against UNC-W. Without them, the Red Raiders basically had a six-man rotation and fell to Arizona.
Of course, if they're 100%, then that's a different story. But on a quick turnaround time for the Round of 32 games, I don't expect that to be the case, even if they are back to open tournament play. On neutral site games, Tech fell to Saint Joseph's and barely beat a bad Syracuse team. Analytically, their defense took a step back and momentum isn't on their side as their defense ranks 70th on Bart Torvik over the final month of regular season play. Not to mention, the 3-seeded Big 12 rep hasn't fared historically well in the tournament for one reason or another.
While I don't expect the Red Raiders to fall in the opening round, it's tough to trust this team to make a deep tournament push if they aren't 100% and if their defense isn't in top shape. It only takes one solid shooting night to send a team home, and Texas Tech is on high alert for that type of game going against them.
Otherwise, it's seriously hard to find a team I'm out on in this region. St. John's offense is a bit of a concern but they have some of the highest Shot Volume in the league and are playing their best ball. Maryland has some depth concerns but they might have the best starting five in hoops and I only expect their lack of depth to hold them back the deeper they make it into the tournament. Florida is my pick for national champion. It's hard to see who they lose to in this region and is a clear pick to make it to the Final Four.