NCAA Tournament Teams to Fade: Midwest Region (2025)
The 2025 NCAA Tournament is here and it’s time to dish out advice for filling out your March Madness brackets. Picking the right upsets in your NCAA Tournament bracket pools is always a tricky strategy. Every year we have top-seeded teams losing early - predicting which ones is the tough part.
Let’s take a closer look at three teams from the Midwest region of the bracket you should fade.
Whether you’re filling out March Madness brackets or placing bets on the NCAA Tournament games or futures, fading certain teams can be a winning strategy. Note that all efficiency stats mentioned below are via KenPom unless otherwise noted.
Without further ado, let’s dive into three teams from the NCAA Tournament Midwest region who may be on upset alert. Enjoy.
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NCAA Tournament Teams to Fade: Midwest Region
No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky has proven multiple times this season it can beat elite teams. The Wildcats boast wins over Duke, Florida and Tennessee (twice). However, they also profile as a potential first-round upset candidate.
The Wildcats have an elite offense but it's also one that relies on three-point scoring. Plus, they don't rebound well on the offensive end. Kentucky also has a shaky defense that ranks 341st in turnover rate and 289th in opposing two-point shooting.
Then there's Kentucky's multiple injury issues. Jaxson Robinson is out for the season while Lamont Butler is dealing with a shoulder injury that's limited him for the past two months. The Wildcats' backcourt lacks reliable depth heading into the NCAA Tournament.
Kentucky's first-round opponent, Troy, could present a sneaky-tough matchup. The Trojans employ a unique defensive scheme that uses the press and zone looks frequently to force opponents into mistakes. Troy also ranks seventh nationally in steal rate, 38th in block rate and 20th in two-point defense.
If the threes aren't falling for Kentucky, an upset could be brewing for Troy. It's also worth noting that Wildcats coach Mark Pope has yet to win an NCAA Tournament game, going 0-2 with BYU. That includes a first-round loss to No. 11 seed Duquesne a year ago.
No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers
This time last year, Purdue's journey to the Final Four and a National Championship appearance was just beginning. That was last season, though. This current Boilermakers team is trending down heading into the 2025 NCAA Tournament and looks vulnerable in the first round.
Purdue has lost six of its last nine games coming into this matchup vs. High Point. It's also beaten only one NCAA Tournament team since the beginning of February (UCLA at home). The last time we saw the Boilermakers in action, they lost by 18 points to Michigan in the Big Ten quarter-finals.
The Purdue offense is elite but its defense has some serious question marks. The Boilermakers rank 350th nationally in two-point defense and 356th in defensive block rate. They've struggled to replace Zach Edey's presence in the paint, at least on defense.
Meanwhile, High Point can exploit that weak interior defense. The Panthers are 15th in the country in two-point shooting, 12th in effective field-goal percentage and 25th in offensive efficiency. They average 82.2 points per game (18th) and boast a variety of scoring options on a deep roster.
Unlike other mid-major teams in the Big Dance, High Point has multiple players formerly at power-conference programs - Bobby Pettiford (Kansas), D'Maurian Williams (Texas Tech) and Kimani Hamilton (Mississippi State). That's not even including leading scorer Kezza Giffa or 7-foot-0 center Juslin Bodo Bodo.
No. 6 Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois has been up and down all season. The Illini were 12-3 at one point back in January before going 3-5 over their next stretch. They also got blown out by Michigan State, Wisconsin and Duke in consecutive games in February - losing by 14, 21 and 43 points, respectively.
Plus, the Illinois just got crushed by Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament quarter-finals, 88-65. This team has plenty of talent with future NBA Draft picks on the roster and boasts a top-tier offense. Yet, some major flaws have been exposed multiple times this season.
The Illini rank 360th nationally in defensive turnover rate and are shooting just 31.1% from three-point range (316th). Those are worrisome numbers and help explain the multiple blowout losses recently.
Illinois will face the winner of the Texas/Xavier First Four game. Both teams can exploit the Illini's issues. Xavier would be more live to pull off the win, but Texas is certainly capable as well. The Musketeers, though, are 12-4 in their last 16 games and playing like a top-25 team over the past month.
Brad Underwood's squad reached the Elite Eight last year, but the Illini failed to get past the second round in their three prior NCAA Tournament appearances.