NCAA Tournament West Region Betting Primer (2022 March Madness)
The West Region features the top overall seed, the Gonzaga Bulldogs, along with a bunch of highly talented but inconsistent squads. Duke, Texas Tech, Arkansas, UConn and even Alabama and Memphis could go deep into March or go home in the first weekend.
There are also some dangerous double-digit seeds thrown into the West, as Rutgers, Notre Dame, Davidson, New Mexico State and Vermont all have “Cinderellability,†a word I just made up right now. This is a region that could have its fair share of chaos.
The West Region will also answer the biggest storyline entering this tournament: How far will Duke go in Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s final year. Below is a detailed breakdown of how the West Region could be won.
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(1) Gonzaga Bulldogs (25-3 SU, 14-11-2, ATS, 11-16 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: -160
Strengths: Gonzaga has an elite offense that runs at a breakneck pace. The Bulldogs rank third in adjusted offensive efficiency, second in effective field goal shooting, 17th in 3-point percentage and second in 2-point percentage, per BartTorvik.com. They also play at the fourth-highest pace in the country while turning the ball over on only 15.9% of their possessions.
Weaknesses: Gonzaga doesn’t really have a fatal flaw. The questions of its quality of schedule can’t be brought up, as they played Texas, UCLA, Duke, Alabama and Texas Tech this year. If not for an off shooting night in the regular-season finale against St. Mary’s, there wouldn’t be any questions about this group. If Gonzaga does have a weakness, it’s not having a takeover guard like Jalen Suggs to get buckets when needed. This year’s rendition is built around forwards Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren.
X-Factor: As mentioned above, Gonzaga’s guards will need to step up at some point during this tournament. If they can get consistent production from Julian Strawther, Andrew Nembhard and Rasir Bolton, the Zags will be awfully tough to beat.
Prediction: Gonzaga makes it to consecutive Final Fours.
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(2) Duke Blue Devils (26-5 SU, 18-13, ATS, 16-15 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +330
Strengths: Duke once again is armed with loads of talent, led by NBA lottery pick Paolo Banchero. Duke can light it up on just about anyone, ranking fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency and 14th in effective field goal percentage. The Blue Devils are particularly proficient inside, where they rank 14th in 2-point shooting percentage.
Weaknesses: The Blue Devils tend to play too much in isolation offensively. They’ve also been extremely sloppy on the defensive end to close out the season. Duke ranks 42nd on the season in adjusted defensive efficiency, but they ranked 152nd in that category over their last 10 games. If Duke is going to cut down the nets in Coach K’s last season, they’ll have to outshoot their opponents.
X-Factor: Can Duke big man Mark Williams dominate this field? The 7-footer will need to come up big at some point in this tournament, especially if they face Gonzaga.
Prediction: Coach K’s farewell season ends in the Sweet Sixteen, if not sooner.
(3) Texas Tech Red Raiders (23-8 SU, 20-11 ATS, 15-16 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +450
Strengths: Chris Beard is gone, but first-year coach Mark Adams has this Texas Tech team defending as good as it ever has. The Red Raiders are the top defensive team in the country, per Torvik. They smother opponents inside and limit you on the glass.
Weaknesses: The Red Raiders aren’t an elite offensive team, ranking 61st in adjusted efficiency. Their biggest weakness is taking care of the ball, as they rank 294th in turnover rate. Texas Tech also struggles mightily from distance, making just 31.4% of their threes.
X-Factor: Who steps up for the Red Raiders to help leading scorers Bryson Williams and Terrence Shannon Jr.? Texas Tech will need a third scoring option to make it out of this region.
Prediction: Texas Tech’s defensive prowess gets it to the Elite Eight, but the run ends there.
(4) Arkansas Razorbacks (24-7 SU, 18-12-1 ATS, 18-13 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +1400
Strengths: The Razorbacks were one of the hottest teams in the country to close the season, winning 14 of 16 games to close the regular season. Arkansas plays tenacious defense in the paint and turns teams over at over a 20% clip.
Weaknesses: Arkansas is a really bad 3-point shooting team, ranking 310th in 3-point percentage. The offense relies heavily on senior guard J.D. Notae to be the engine. Arkansas also has a tendency to start games slowly on the offensive end, a troublesome trend come tournament time.
X-Factor: Notae can take this team on a deep run if he can enter superhero mode.
Prediction: Arkansas is definitely on upset alert against a dangerous Vermont team in the first round, however, they have enough talent to squeak into the Sweet Sixteen.
(5) Connecticut Huskies (22-8 SU, 12-17-1 ATS, 18-12 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +1500
Strengths: UConn is a well-balanced team with three double-digit scorers. While they don’t shoot the ball particularly well, they crash the glass relentlessly and rank first in the nation in offensive rebound rate. The Huskies also have a strong interior defense and do a great job of limiting looks from the outside. If you’re going to beat UConn, you best not battle them in the paint.
Weaknesses: UConn can go cold offensively for stretches. And while they limit 3-point shots, they allow 34.5% of the threes that do get taken to go in. They also foul at a relatively concerning rate.
X-Factor: Big man Adama Sanogo will be critical on the glass for a Huskies team that can endure shooting droughts. If he’s collecting boards, UConn will always be in the game.
Prediction: UConn gets to the Sweet Sixteen but struggles to keep up with Gonzaga.
(6) Alabama Crimson Tide (19-12 SU, 11-21 ATS, 21-10-1 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +2500
Strengths: When Alabama is on, it is most definitely on. The Crimson Tide can shoot anyone out of the building and rank 10th in 2-point field goal percentage. This team as an enormously high ceiling, the only problem is…
Weaknesses: Alabama is the most unpredictable team in the country. The Tide have beaten Gonzaga, Houston and Tennessee and have lost to Iona, Georgi and Vanderbilt. They shoot the three at the 12th-highest clip in the country, but rank 306th in making such shots. They aren’t particularly good at anything defensively and are bad on the defensive glass. You just never know what you’re going to get from Nate Oats’ bunch.
X-Factor: Can Alabama play more consistently as a mid-range seed with nothing to lose? Can Keon Ellis, Jaden Shackleford and Jahvon Quinerly benefit from last year’s tournament experience? Who the heck knows?
Prediction: Alabama could lose in the first round or go to the Final Four. I’m not even kidding. However, I lean more toward an early exit.
(7) Michigan State Spartans (20-11 SU, 15-16 ATS, 17-14 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +3500
Strengths: Michigan State makes nearly 38% of the threes they take and they also defend the perimeter well. They move the ball well and rank 15th in assist rate. Tom Izzo’s teams with less expectations can be a tough out in the tournament.
Weaknesses: Michigan State went 8-10 down the stretch after starting the year 14-2. They also lost their biggest tests against Kansas and Baylor in the non-conference slate. The Spartans also don’t have an elite player they can rely on like in years past.
X-Factor: If Michigan State is to make a run, Gabe Brown will have to carry them.
Prediction: Michigan State is ripe for a 7-10 upset, but they’ll more likely give Duke a hard time before losing in the Round of 32.
(8) Boise State Broncos (24-7 SU, 16-14 ATS, 14-16 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +4500
Strengths: The Mountain West tournament champions excel at cleaning up the glass and defending without fouling. Don’t expect too many second chances or trips to the foul line. They play at a snail’s pace and pride themselves on grinding games out.
Weaknesses: Boise State isn’t a great shooting team, ranking 126th in effective field goal percentage. They managed to win the MWC by holding their three opponents to under 70 points. That’ll be a tougher ask in their bracket.
X-Factor: Forward Abu Kigab is Boise State’s top scorer and will need to lead the way for a Broncos team that isn’t offensively proficient.
Prediction: Boise State will be eliminated in the opening round.
(9) Memphis Tigers (19-9 SU, 13-15 ATS, 15-13 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +2800
Strengths: Memphis seemed left for dead in late January at 9-8. But then the Tigers got hot winning 12 of their final 14 games before coming up just short against Houston in the American title game. Memphis is a strong defensive team that blocks shots at the fourth highest rate in the country. Memphis also loves to turn defense into offense in transition, as they rank 31st in tempo.
Weaknesses: Memphis’ fast-paced offense can get it into trouble, as it turns the ball over at one of the highest rates in the country. They also don’t shoot free throws well. Those are two troubling trends for a tournament run.
X-Factor: Can Memphis take care of the ball? If they get into a track meet with Gonzaga in the second round, they’ll need to value every possession.
Prediction: Memphis gets past Boise State before being downed by the Zags.
(10) Davidson Wildcats (25-5 SU, 18-11 ATS, 16-13 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +5000
Strengths: Davidson has an elite offense that ranks 13th in adjusted efficiency. They also are lethal from 3-point land, making 38.4% of those attempts.
Weaknesses: Davidson can’t survive an off night shooting, as evidenced by their loss to Richmond in the A10 title game. The Wildcats rank 159th in adjusted defensive efficiency and give up a bunch of threes.
X-Factor: Foster Loyer averages 16.6 points per game and will need to put up a big day to get Davidson to the Round of 32.
Prediction: Davidson can be dangerous. If it’s hitting its shots, it can very well take down a Duke team that sometimes treats defense as optional.
(11) Rutgers Scarlet Knights (18-12 SU, 13-14 ATS, 12-14-1 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +10000
Strengths: Rutgers closed the season strong and did it on the heels of its strong interior defense, which ranks 49th in the country. Rutgers veterans Ron Harper Jr. and Geo Baker can leverage last year’s tournament run this time around.
Weaknesses: The Scarlet Knights don’t have an overly glaring weakness. However, they aren’t really good at anything. They give up a lot of threes, don’t shoot particularly well and don’t cause much havoc defensively.
X-Factor: Can Rutgers’ dynamic duo of Harper and Baker lead the Scarlet Knights on another deep run?
Prediction: Rutgers is eliminated in the play-in game.
(11) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (22-9 SU, 17-14 ATS, 16-14-1 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +10000
Strengths: The Irish return to the dance with a team that can light it up from deep, ranking 19th in 3-point shooting. They protect the ball, play slow and bank on making the most of every possession.
Weaknesses: Notre Dame is a tad undersized and is susceptible to getting beaten up inside.
X-Factor: Can Notre Dame shoot its way to a tournament run?
Prediction: Notre Dame will prevail against Rutgers and could knock off Alabama in the first round.
(12) New Mexico State Aggies (24-6 SU, 15-13 ATS, 15-13 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +10000
Strengths: New Mexico State is a stingy defensive team that ranks 20th in defensive effective field goal percentage. They defend both interior and perimeter shots at an impressive rate.
Weaknesses: The Aggies are sloppy with the ball and turn the ball over on 20.7% of their possessions. They also weren’t tested much throughout the season.
X-Factor: Teddy Allen is New Mexico State’s engine.
Prediction: New Mexico State might be a popular 5-12 upset pick, but I don’t see it against a UConn team that’s more talented within the interior.
(13) Vermont Catamounts (26-5 SU, 17-12-1 ATS, 18-12 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +10000
Strengths: The America East champions can light up the scoreboard and rank 46th in adjusted offensive efficiency and third in effective field goal percentage. They’re 3rd in 2-point shooting, 36th in 3-point shooting and are the best team in the country on the defensive glass. Vermont also ranks 19th in 2-point defense.
Weaknesses: If Vermont misses, they likely aren’t getting a second shot. They also are a little susceptible on the perimeter.
X-Factor: Vermont’s offense is catalyzed by forward Ryan Davis and guard Ben Shungu. They’ll need to shoulder the load to pull off a big upset.
Prediction: Vermont knocks off Arkansas and gives UConn a run for its money. This team is my favorite bet to be a Cinderella.
(14) Montana State Bobcats (24-7 SU, 14-14-1 ATS, 15-14 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +20000
Strengths: The Big Sky champions can shoot, ranking 26th in 3-point percentage and 53rd in 2-point percentage.
Weaknesses: The Bobcats rank outside the top 100 in all major defensive efficiency metrics.
X-Factor: If Montana State is to threaten Texas Tech, they’ll need to drill their threes.
Prediction: Montana State loses in the first round overwhelmed by Tech’s swarming defense.
(15) Cal State Fullerton Titans (18-10 SU, 14-11-1 ATS, 11-14-1 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +25000
Strengths: The Big West champs get to the line at a high clip and can make their free throws.
Weaknesses: The Titans can be torched from deep, allowing teams to shoot 37.1% from distance.
X-Factor: Fullerton will have to find a way to defend Duke from beyond the arc.
Prediction: The Titans are overwhelmed by Duke’s elite offense.
(16) Georgia State Panthers (18-10 SU, 10-13 ATS, 6-17 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +10000
Strengths: Georgia State ranks 27th in the country in 2-point defense.
Weaknesses: The Panthers are a miserable shooting team and have allowed teams to shoot nearly 38% from three.
X-Factor: Can Georgia State force enough misses inside to cover a large number against Gonzaga?
Prediction: Georgia State puts up a fight but fails to cover against the Zags.
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