NCAAB Big Ten Conference Tournament Betting Preview (2021)
The Big Ten is the most loaded conference in the nation and should get the most teams in the NCAA Tournament of any conference.
Aside from the bottom four teams, every team in the Big Ten Tournament has something to play for. Top dogs like Michigan, Illinois, and Iowa are looking to bolster resumes and solidify strong seeds. Like Wisconsin and Ohio State, some teams are trying to find their mojo after closing the regular season poorly.
And then there are several teams fighting for NCAA Tournament bids. Whatever you’re looking for, this tournament’s got it. Here’s my preview and prediction for the 2021 Big Ten Tournament.
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Big Ten Conference Tournament
Dates: March 10-14
Site: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
No. 1 seed: Michigan Wolverines
Previous winners
2020 – Cancelled due to COVID-19
2019 – Michigan State
2018 – Michigan
2017 – Michigan
2016 – Michigan State
Favorite to Watch
Illinois Fighting Illini (+375)
While the Big Ten is the deepest conference in the nation, Illinois and Michigan have emerged from the pack as the clear top two teams. While I love this Wolverines team, their +175 price doesn’t generate enough value. Meanwhile, I love the Illini just as much and can get them at almost 4/1 odds.
Illinois enters the Big Ten Tournament red hot. They’ve won 11 of their last 12 games, with the only loss coming on the road to Michigan State. More importantly, Illinois proved it can win without its star player, Ayo Dosunmu.
It seemed the Illini were doomed after Dosunmu, a Naismith Player of the Year candidate, broke his nose during the loss to the Spartans. Instead, Illinois beat Nebraska at home, then went on the road and took down Wisconsin and Michigan.
Illinois has the traits of a team that can make some noise in March. They have a lethal inside-out combination featuring Dosunmu at guard and 7-footer Kofi Cockburn handling the middle. And we learned they have enough depth to overcome a poor shooting night from Dosunmu.
Freshman guard Andre Curbello has emerged as a key contributor late in the season and has scored in double figures in Illinois’ final five regular-season games. Senior guard Trent Frazier is a streaky player who makes the Illini even more dangerous when his shots fall.
The analytics also love the Illini, who are ranked 5th by KenPom and 6th by Torvik. Per Torvik. Illinois ranks 11th in adjusted-offensive efficiency and 16th in adjusted-defensive efficiency. Illinois is also one of the country’s best shooting teams, ranking 14th in effective field goal percentage. With Cockburn down low, the Illini are also excellent at cleaning up the glass.
Illinois’ path to the Big Ten Tournament final will begin with either Rutgers or Indiana, two wildly inconsistent teams. A rematch with Iowa in the semifinals would be a fantastic game. However, the Hawkeyes don’t get it done consistently on the defensive end, and Cockburn can contain Iowa’s star center, Luka Garza.
Cockburn’s defensive prowess will also be critical if the Illini match up with Michigan in the final. The Illini beat the Wolverines by 23 points without Dosunmu in the first meeting, and Cockburn was a big reason. He dominated Michigan’s star center, Hunter Dickinson, holding him to just six points on 1-of-8 shooting.
Illinois has all the pieces, and they’re coming together at the perfect time. At these odds, they’re a great bet to win the Big Ten title.
Top Live Underdog
Purdue Boilermakers (+500)
Purdue quietly closed the regular season on fire. Since January 30th, the Boilermakers are 7-2, with their losses coming by a combined three points. Purdue is anchored by its monster in the middle, Trevion Williams. But it’s Purdue’s freshman class that’s catalyzed this hot stretch.
Over the last month, freshmen Jaden Ivey and Zach Edey have emerged to round out Williams’ supporting cast. Ivey has averaged 14.1 points per game in Purdue’s last seven contests. Edey, a 7-foot-4 center, has averaged 12.8 points per game in that same span.
The key player is streaky junior guard Sasha Stefanovic. When Stefanovic is hitting his threes, the Boilermakers are really tough to beat. Stefanovic is only 8-for-23 from deep during Purdue’s five-game winning streak, so he could be due for some positive shooting regression.
To get to the tournament final, Purdue will first most likely have to get past Ohio State. The Buckeyes were once deemed a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament but are falling apart at the worst time. Plus, the Boilermakers swept the Buckeyes during the regular season early in conference play when they were still finding their footing.
Michigan would most likely be next in the semifinal. The Boilermakers lost their only meeting to the Wolverines, 70-53, but shot horribly from the field.
Like Illinois, Purdue is peaking at the right time. Matt Painter’s group has what it takes to make a run.
Best Longshot Play
Michigan State Spartans (+5000)
Finding a long shot in this field is really difficult. I can’t endorse taking any of the teams playing in the first round. And that left me with erratic teams like Michigan State, Maryland, Indiana, and Rutgers.
The Scarlet Knights intrigue me because of their defensive prowess and the duo of Geo Baker and Ron Harper Jr. However, Rutgers is too susceptible to awful stretches of offense to trust.
In the end, I’m going with the best coach of the bunch, Tom Izzo. Michigan State likely secured an NCAA Tournament bid with its win over Michigan in the regular-season finale. One could argue the Spartans are playing with house money, having nothing to lose.
This year’s version of the Spartans prides itself on its defense. Michigan State ranks 39th in adjusted-defensive efficiency and has held teams to 31.6% behind the 3-point line. Unfortunately, Tom Izzo’s squad is a mess offensively, ranking 262nd in effective field goal percentage.
That’s not to say this roster isn’t talented. Michigan State is led by upperclassmen Aaron Henry, Joshua Langford, Gabe Brown, and Joey Hauser. Sophomore guard Rocket Watts can also get hot, as we saw when he scored 21 points against Michigan in the season finale.
Defense and good coaching is all you can ask for in a longshot bet. Michigan State has both, but its run in the Big Ten Tournament will hinge upon whether the offense can do its part.
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.