Nets vs. Celtics ATS Pick for 1/28 (Sports Betting)
Tonight’s slate is uncharacteristically small for an NBA Monday. Excitement-wise, nothing jumps off the screen unless you want to see two European centers battle it out (Gasol vs. Jokic). Thus, tonight’s pick lies in a game that doesn’t appear competitive on paper. It is a rematch of the highly competitive 2002 Eastern Conference Finals.
Current Form
Nets
Brooklyn storms into Monday night’s game on a six-game winning streak. Winners of 10 of their last 12, the Nets have emerged as a legitimate playoff team in the Eastern Conference. Brooklyn put the finishing touches on a 3-0 homestand by edging the Knicks 119-109 Friday night. However, it’s not all roses in Brooklyn as the team has recently been bitten by the injury bug. Spencer Dinwiddie, who is second among reserves in points per game (17.2) and assists (5.0), will have surgery on his thumb and is expected to miss three to six weeks. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Joe Harris are also questionable for tonight’s game. The Nets will be playing this game on two day’s rest (5-1 record in such situations).
Celtics
The Celtics’ uneven season continued Saturday in a spirited loss to the Warriors. Despite winning six of their last seven games, Boston’s offensive chemistry remains awkward. The offense continues to be heavily dependent on Kyrie Irving. The All-Star point guard has been shooting the ball extremely well of late. Over his last four games, he is averaging 55.8% from the field, 51.7% from three, and 81% from the free-throw line. Al Horford also turned in an encouraging performance Saturday night with 22 points, 13 rebounds, two blocks, and outstanding defense against Demarcus Cousins. Boston is 19-11 on one day’s rest.
Edge: Celtics
Both teams come into this matchup sizzling hot playing their best basketball of the season. However, Boston gets the slight edge with the healthier roster and dominant record when playing on one day’s rest.
Statistical Breakdown
Nets
There are very few teams that are more analytically driven on offense than the Nets. The majority of their shot attempts come from the three-point line or at the rim. Brooklyn ranks fourth in percentage of points from three-pointers (33.3), sixth in three-pointers attempted per game (34.4), eighth in the NBA in field goals attempted per game within five feet of the basket (33.6), and eighth in percentage of points from free throws (17). Conversely, the Nets rank 27th in the league in percentage of points from the mid-range (5.8) and 25th in two-pointers per game (55.5).
The Nets biggest defensive strength is their stinginess on the perimeter. Brooklyn ranks ninth in the league in opponent three-point percentage (34.5) and third in opponent points per game from three-pointers (29.5). Additionally, Jarret Allen has done a nice job protecting the rim, as he ranks 12th in the Association in blocks per game (1.5).
Turnovers have been the Nets’ Achilles’ heel this season. Brooklyn ranks 25th in turnovers per game (15.4) and 23rd in turnovers per offensive play (13.3).
Celtics
Unlike other coaches, Brad Stevens tailors his offense to fit his personnel. Boston’s best offensive players (Kyrie, Horford, Tatum, and Morris) all prefer operating from beyond the arc or in the mid-range. Subsequently, the Celtics offense is heavily based on three-point shots and mid-range jumpers, with very few shot attempts coming at the rim. Boston ranks second in the NBA in percentage of points from three-pointers (35.3), third in three-pointers attempted per game (35.7), and eighth in percentage of points from the mid-range (12.1). The Celtics also rank 27th in the league in field goals attempted per game within five feet of the basket.
While the offense has been inconsistent, the Celtics’ defense has been their calling card. The Celtics have stuffed their roster with capable wing defenders who have bought into Stevens’ system. Boston has the fifth highest defensive rating in the league (104.9). Similar to the Nets, the Celtics biggest defensive strength is their ability to defend the three-point line. The Celtics rank third in the league in opponent three-point percentage (33.5). Boston also has thrived in forcing turnovers. They rank eighth in opponent turnovers per game (15.9).
Edge: Celtics
The Celtics have the clear matchup advantage in tonight’s game. While both teams excel at defending the three-point line, Boston does it a higher level. Furthermore, the Nets lack Boston’s caliber of isolation players to turn to if their three-point shots aren’t falling. Brooklyn’s propensity to turn the ball over will fare poorly against a Boston squad that is among the league’s best in forcing them.
With Dinwiddie unavailable, D’Angelo Russel will struggle defensively against Kyrie. Russel has had issues defending shifty point guards all season (i.e. Kemba Walker) and his shortcomings will again be on display tonight. Dinwiddie’s absence will also hinder the Nets’ ability to get to the free-throw line. Dinwiddie ranks 30th in the league in free-throw attempts per game (5.08).
Line Analysis
The line for this game opened at -10 Boston. So far, the public has been split on who to back for this game as only 51% of public bets have been placed on the Celtics’ spread. However, the line has already shifted to -10.5. This movement indicates that the sharp bettors have already found value in Boston and are responsible for the slight movement in the line. I expect the sharps to nudge this spread up to 11 points by tip-off.
Edge: Celtics
Boston’s current line of -10.5 contains value. The combination of the sharp’s backing and the future line movement gives Boston’s current number some value.
Verdict: Celtics
By all accounts, the Celtics have a significant advantage tonight. Boston is healthier, playing on ideal rest, a nightmare matchup for the Nets’ guards, and have the sharp bettor’s backing. Kyrie will have his way with the Nets guards en route to another impressive scoring performance. Take the Celtics -10.5 in a wire to wire victory.
All stats courtesy of TeamRankings.com and NBA.com.