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New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals Odds & Game Pick

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Coming off back-to-back losses, the Patriots will look to get back on track when they travel to Cincinnati to take on the 1-12 Bengals. The Patriots do not hold the tiebreaker over any of the other current division leaders, so they will need to win and stay a game ahead of the Chiefs if they want to secure a first-round bye in the playoffs.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: FanDuel had the odds open as Patriots -10; O/U 40.5. The spread has moved just a half-point, and the total has gone up one point.
  • Current Line: Patriots -10.5
  • O/U: 41.5
  • Location: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
  • Start Time: 1:00 pm ET
  • Television: CBS
  • Last Meeting: October 16, 2016 – The Patriots defeated the Bengals 35-17 in Foxborough.

Overview

The Patriots’ offense has looked terrible over the last few weeks and is averaging just 17.6 points per game over their last five contests. During that span, the team is 2-3 and has dropped games to all three of the current division leaders in the AFC. The defense, which early in the season was on pace to be historically good, has given up 20+ points in back-to-back games for the first time all season and is just barely hanging on to the best yards allowed per game total in the NFL. 

But while the Patriots have not looked good of late, they are good at doing one thing and that is beating up on bad teams. Early in the season they weren’t just beating the worst teams in the league, they were destroying them, winning seven of their first eight games by two or more touchdowns. Their competition was not strong, but it won’t be again this week when they take on the Bengals who are poised to have the number one pick in next year’s NFL Draft.

After briefly letting Ryan Finley take over the starting quarterback role, Zac Taylor wisely opted to re-insert Andy Dalton into the lineup, and the Bengals managed to get their first win of the season two weeks ago. Though they have the worst record in football, and Dalton is just 1-9 as a starter this season, the Bengals have only lost four of those 10 games by 10 or more points, none of which have come since Dalton took the job back from Finley.

Statistically, the Bengals are just as bad as you would expect a 1-12 team to be. Defensively they’re giving up the second-most total yards per game, and while their pass defense doesn’t rank near the bottom of the league, it’s mainly because their NFL-worst rush defense is allowing 156.7 yards per game. The Bengals also rank 30th in the league in turnover differential, -11, and are tied for 30th with the Dolphins in turnovers forced with 12.

Trends

  • The Patriots are 7-6 ATS this season.
  • The Bengals are 6-7 ATS this season.
  • The total has gone under in nine of the Patriots’ 13 games this season.
  • The total has gone under in eight of the Bengals’ 13 games this season.
  • The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone under in four of the Bengals’ last six games.

Prop Bet

Patriots Win/Sony Michel 100+ Yards (+280)
What I love so much about this prop is that you’re really only betting on Sony Michel 100+ yards. That’s still a scary proposition, though, as he has yet to do that all season and is coming off a five-carry, eight-yard performance against the Chiefs. But like with the rest of the Patriots, Michel excels against bad teams. His highest rushing totals this season are 91 against Washington, 86 against the Giants, 85 against the Cowboys, and 83 against the Dolphins. This week, he’s up against the worst run defense in all of football. Like the rest of the Patriots, this is a get-right spot for Michel as he and the team lock up a playoff berth and continue their pursuit of a first-round bye.

Bottom Line

The Patriots have lost in back-to-back weeks, their offense has not looked good at all, and their defense has struggled, yet they always seem to right the ship just when all hope seems lost. The fact is, the Patriots have lost to three division leaders, which is only something to be ashamed of if you are used to winning the way the Patriots are. Luckily for them, not only are the Bengals not a division-leading team, they’re a terrible one that’s on track to have the number one pick in next year’s NFL Draft. The Patriots are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS when favored by double-digits, so while they’re struggling against good teams, they’re destroying the teams they should be. With Andy Dalton at the helm, the Bengals are at least playing close in games, but the Patriots are going to want to wash the taste of the last two weeks out of their mouths. The defense gets back on track and does what it did early in the season, beat up a bad offense. 

Pick: Patriots -10.5

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Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.