New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams Odds and Game Pick (2020)
NFL bettors have another quick turnaround this week, as Thursday Night Football makes its triumphant return. A pair of playoff contenders are set to meet in a pivotal cross-conference showdown between the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Rams. While the betting odds are in favor of the home team, we have seen sharp action on both sides throughout the week.
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Details
- Opening Lines: Rams -6.5; O/U 45
- Current ATS Line: Rams -5
- Current Over/Under: 44.5
- Location: SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
- Start Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
- Television: FOX, NFL Network
- Last Meeting: February 3, 2019 – The Patriots defeated the Rams 13-3 in Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta.
- Attendance: No fans will be allowed to attend.
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NE
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+5
-109
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o44.5
-109
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+205
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LAR
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-5
-112
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u44.5
-112
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-240
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View consensus odds, picks, and matchup notes from top betting experts for the Patriots vs. Rams >>
Overview
No one can deny that Bill Belichick has done an impressive job with the current New England roster. Last week’s 45-0 demolition of the Chargers in the same SoFi Stadium that will be the site of Thursday night’s game kept the Patriots alive in the AFC playoff chase.
The offense looks different in New England this year than it has in years past. A multi-faceted rushing attack combines the various skillsets of Cam Newton, Damien Harris, and James White. Defensively, Belichick developed a perfect game plan to stop the Rams in the Super Bowl two years ago. It wouldn’t be shocking to see another strong effort from a unit that has continually outperformed their adjusted metrics this season.
The Rams have been unpredictable in recent weeks. After looking phenomenal in a Monday night win over the Buccaneers, L.A. laid a major egg against the 49ers the following week. Now coming off a solid road victory over the Cardinals, Sean McVay will look to have more solutions to solving the Patriots defense than he did in Super Bowl LIII. Cam Akers has been gaining traction in the Rams backfield, an encouraging sign given the recent inefficiency of Darrell Henderson. Teams have run the ball well against New England all season, and establishing the ground game early Thursday night will be critical to reducing the burden on Jared Goff.
Trends
- Patriots 2020 Betting Trends: 6-6 ATS; 4-8 to the Over
- Rams 2020 Betting Trends: 7-5 ATS; 4-8 to the Over
- The Patriots are 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS in their last six head-to-head meetings against the Rams.
- The Patriots are 10-1 straight up in their last 11 Thursday night games.
- The Rams are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight December games.
Prop Bet
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Cam Akers (-106 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
The pendulum has shifted for the Los Angeles running back stable in recent weeks. Rookie second-round pick Akers has seen an increased workload compared to Henderson and Malcolm Brown. What’s more, Akers has looked great in this larger role. He was the only Rams RB to muster anything against the 49ers two weeks ago, picking up 84 yards and a score on just nine carries. He followed that up with a 21-carry, 72-yard outing against Arizona last week, once again finding the end zone.
Perhaps most encouraging of all for this touchdown prop was Akers toting seven carries inside the 10-yard line as the featured red-zone back last week. The Patriots have surrendered 11 rushing touchdowns in 12 games, making Akers an intriguing play at -106 odds.
Bottom Line
Both the spread and total for this Thursday night affair have been bet in all directions since the lines opened. The Patriots unsurprisingly took substantial money Sunday night into Monday before buyback on the Rams eventually led the line to settle somewhere in between the opening 6.5 and the low point of Rams -4.5. The total has also bounced back and forth between the opening line of 45 and the current 44.5.
Both teams are in sore need of a victory when it comes to their respective postseason pushes. The Patriots are in must-win mode for essentially the remainder of the 2020 season, while the Rams are looking to inch closer to securing an NFC West title. On paper, the Rams are the more talented team on both sides of the ball. But Los Angeles’ recent zig-zag performances from week to week, combined with Belichick’s presence on the opposing sideline, has led me to throw the “on paper†handicap out the window for this one.
I’m itching to support an under play, but I have been brutal at picking totals recently. Because of this, I’ll opt for the road underdogs as my preferred game pick. Betting against Belichick is never appealing. Betting against Belichick in playoff mode is next to impossible. New England is very much a live dog in this matchup, and having more than a field goal in my pocket in terms of the spread will suffice.
Pick: Patriots +5 (-109 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.