New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Odds & Game Pick

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These odds were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook on December 27, 2019.

The final week of the NFL regular season is finally upon us and the playoffs are rounding into form for what should be an exciting month of postseason football. For both the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots, both team’s seasons have largely gone how we could’ve expected. The Patriots once again have won their division and are poised for a first-round bye come January, while the Dolphins are once again the division (and leagues) basement dwellers. Let’s take a look at this familiar matchup between divisional foes to see where we can find an edge.

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Details

• Opening Lines: The Patriots opened up at -16.5 and the over/under opened at 43.5. The numbers have moved slightly in favor of the Dolphins and Over
• Current Line: Patriots -16
• O/U: 45
• Location: Gillette Stadium,  Foxboro, MA
• Start Time: 1:00 pm ET
• Television: CBS
• Last Meeting: September 15, 2019 – New England defeated Miami 43-0 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Dolphins at Patriots>> 

Overview

For a record 11th consecutive season, the Patriots found themselves in the postseason well before the final game of the regular season once again this year. This season, however, potentially more so than any in the Brady-Belichick era the team has had to rely almost entirely on their defense while their offense has slogged along as one of the most pedestrian-like units in the entire NFL. Through 15 regular-season games, the Patriots rank 16th in the league in total offense per game with just 354.1 yards per game while posting 26 points per game. The defense has far and away been the story for New England this season, allowing a league-leading 13.2 points per game and 268 yards of total offense per game.

For the Dolphins this season, to put it in the words of Dennis Green; they are who they thought they were. Currently slotted for a top 5 pick come April’s NFL Draft, the Dolphins struggled to find consistency on both sides of the ball this season starting first and foremost at the quarterback position. The recently acquired Josh Rosen, who was hoped to be the future in Miami, struggled to stay on his feet behind a putrid offensive line and was ultimately swapped in for veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick who kept this team somewhat competitive down the back half of the season. Allowing over 400 yards of offense and 31 points per game, this Miami defense could just be the kick start the Patriots need heading into the postseason.

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Bottom Line

Even though the Patriots have won the division and secured a spot in the playoffs, they still need a win in this one to secure a first-round bye week. The last time these two teams played Antonio Brown was the team’s leading receiver and the Patriots offensive woes were just getting started. While the offense has certainly struggled down the stretch, there is no better team in the NFL to get going against than this Miami Dolphins defensive unit. In addition to being better in almost every aspect of the game, the Patriots have the added motivation, as Belichik has put it this week, of this being a playoff game for all intents and purposes. I like the Patriots to improve on their 6-1 ATS home record this season and win this one in decided fashion.

Pick: Patriots -16

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