New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds and Game Pick (2020)
The New England Patriots don’t ordinarily find themselves in such a precarious position this late in an NFL season because, in the Tom Brady era, they never did struggle to this extent. You can look it up: Even when the Patriots struggled in 2002 – finishing with a 9-7 record – they were 6-5 through 11 games. When the Patriots failed to make the playoffs in the 2008 season, they still finished with an 11-5 record. The last time the Patriots were 5-6 or worse through 11 games in an NFL season was in 2000, the year before Tom Brady made his emergence on the national scene with the Patriots under head coach Bill Belichick. It has been 20 years since the Patriots were in this bad a position through 11 games of a season.
If there is any hope of a playoff berth for this season’s New England Patriots, they have to not only win this weekend against the Chargers; they have to win two games this upcoming week in the same stadium. The Patriots play the Rams in SoFi Stadium next Thursday, so they will be camped out in Los Angeles for the next several days. If they don’t go 2-0 in L.A., their place in the playoffs – one of the most automatic aspects of NFL life over the past 17 seasons – will vanish.
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Details
- Opening Line: Chargers -2.5
- Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
- Start Time: 4:25 PM ET
- Last Meeting: Chargers 28 vs. Patriots 41 (1/13/19)
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NE
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+1.5
-110
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o46.5
-110
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+105
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| VIEW PICKS |
LAC
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-1.5
-110
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u46.5
-110
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-125
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View consensus picks and matchup notes from top betting experts for the Patriots vs. Chargers >>
Overview
The Patriots did not play well on offense this past weekend against the Arizona Cardinals, in line with most of their season. The Patriots played well on offense in Week 2 of the season, scoring 30 points against the Seattle Seahawks, but in most of their games this season, their offense has struggled. Cam Newton has not been able to find a rhythm as a downfield passer. When he throws the ball to the sidelines, he doesn’t have the zip on his passes or the fluidity of reads needed to outflank opposing defenses. Newton completed just 9 of 18 passes for only 84 yards with two interceptions.
Yet, the Patriots won. Their defense carried them again.
Everything good the Patriots do and everything they accomplish comes from their defense. Belichick might not have Tom Brady, but he can still coach defense. The Patriots bottled up Arizona Cardinals quarterback and 2019 NFL Rookie of the Year Kyler Murray. The Patriots stuffed the Cardinals on a fourth and goal from the 1-yard line just before halftime, an important play in the larger scheme of things. The Patriots prevented the Cardinals from getting a late first down in a 17-17 tie, forcing a long field goal the Cardinals missed. The Patriots got the ball back and – aided by a 15-yard penalty by the Cardinals – worked their way into field goal range. Nick Folk kicked a game-winning 50-yarder to give New England a 20-17 triumph.
The defense is fine, and it can contain Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, but the offense is the big problem. It will have to find a way to carry more of the workload if the Patriots are going to make the playoffs.
The Chargers are coming off a 27-17 loss to the Buffalo Bills, a competitive game in which the Chargers forced multiple turnovers against Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen. The Chargers have a bad record but have been competitive in nearly every game they have played this season. If they can contain Josh Allen, they have to love their chances against Cam Newton. As long as Herbert doesn’t commit huge mistakes against the Patriots’ savvy defense, Los Angeles has to like its odds here.
Trends
- The Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games versus opponents with a losing home record.
- The Patriots are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games in December.
- The Chargers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog.
Bottom Line
The Patriots’ recent loss at the Houston Texans – on another day when Cam Newton could not give the offense an extra dimension and could not push the ball downfield in the passing game – feels like a representative occurrence, the kind of case study which needs to be kept in mind going into this game. If the Patriots couldn’t beat a below-average Houston team on the road, why would they be expected to beat a below-average Charger team on the road as well? The Patriots have not earned the benefit of the doubt – it’s that simple.
Pick: Chargers (-1.5)
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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.