New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Sports Betting Guide
The New England Patriots are trying to become the second team in NFL history to make four straight Super Bowls after the Buffalo Bills in the 1990-1993 NFL seasons. The Miami Dolphins are trying to merely avoid being completely embarrassed for a second straight week. It is hard to imagine a wider gulf between two teams at one point in time, and that is why we could have a game with a 20-point spread at the time of kickoff between the Pats and ‘Phins in Miami.
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Details
- Opening Line: Patriots -14.5
- Current Line: Patriots -19 at PointsBet
- O/U: 47.5
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
- Start Time: 1:00 pm ET
- Last Meeting: December 9, 2018 – Miami defeated New England 34-33 at Hard Rock Stadium
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Overview
The Patriots might not have Antonio Brown available for this game, but everyone will have to wait and see after a lawsuit alleging sexual abuse by Brown. He’s trending towards playing, but it’s also possible the team holds him out since he’s not completely familiar with the playbook and they probably don’t need him this week.
While that situation is sorted out, it remains that the Patriots looked very good without Brown in Week 1 versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. New England romped to a 33-3 win, cruising behind an offense which was able to do what it wanted, and a defense which enjoyed a very encouraging outing. The Patriots have their various component parts working very well together, a big reason why they are such overwhelming favorites to win in Miami. Even without Brown, Josh Gordon and Phillip Dorsett looked great last week and Julian Edelman is as steady as ever. Miami will have a lot of challenges even if Brown doesn’t suit up.
Speaking of the Dolphins, they hired the man who was Bill Belichick’s defensive coordinator last season in New England. Brian Flores helped Belichick win Super Bowl LIII with a masterful defensive game plan against the Los Angeles Rams. The Patriots shut down a Rams’ offense which had been one of the very best in the NFL. New England held the Rams to three points. This was the same Rams team which had won a game over the Kansas City Chiefs, 54-51, earlier in the season. Flores certainly made a name for himself, and the Dolphins hoped he could bring the Patriots’ winning ways to Miami.
Then came Week 1.
The Dolphins were completely humiliated 59-10 by the Baltimore Ravens. It was a terrible thrashing which indicated just how much the Dolphins are rebuilding and trying to start over. It seems hard to shake the feeling that the Dolphins are going to be one of the two or three worst teams in the NFL this year, possibly making a push for 0-16. They will try to push back against that possibility in Week 2. They’ll need their offensive line to be much better this week, though, as they gave up more pressures in Week 1 than any other team in the NFL.
Trends
- The Patriots are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games versus AFC East opponents.
- New England is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games against opponents with a losing record.
- The Patriots are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games versus opponents with a losing home record.
- The Dolphins are 12-26-1 in their last 39 games following an ATS loss.
- Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four games.
- The Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games versus a team with a winning road record.
Bottom Line
The 19-point spread is warranted but remember that the Patriots struggle in Miami. For whatever, reason, the Dolphins seem to have their number. Since 2013, they have five wins against the Patriots. That’s more than the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-6), Kansas City Chiefs (2-3), Baltimore Ravens (1-3), Los Angeles Chargers (0-3) and Houston Texans (0-6) combined. Even so, this doesn’t feel like it’s their week.
New England could come out a bit sleepy as they are coming off a stomping of a rival in primetime. Now they have a game where they can probably sleepwalk through and still win. That being the case, I’ll take a shot with the +19 as it’s so many points.
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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.