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New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons Odds & Game Pick

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The Saints are currently tied for the second-best record in the NFC at 9-2. One of those losses came in a shocking upset against the Falcons on November 10. You better believe New Orleans will be looking for revenge while traveling to Atlanta for this Thanksgiving tilt. As predicted, the Saints bounced-back nicely following that disappointing loss, taking care of business with victories over the Buccaneers and Panthers in their last two games. 

It had appeared the Falcons turned a corner following their bye week. Atlanta pulled off the aforementioned 26-9 upset of the Saints while beating the Panthers 29-3 in Week 11. However, the Buccaneers provided a reality check to the Falcons, beating them 35-22 last Sunday. It appears there are still holes in Atlanta’s defense after a pair of solid showings against divisional opponents. Drew Brees and company will look to take advantage on Thursday. 

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The spread opened at Saints -6 before jumping to Saints -6.5. The over/under has remained at 49. 
  • Current Line: Saints -6.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
  • O/U: 49 at FanDuel Sportsbook
  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA
  • Start Time: 7:20pm ET
  • Television: NBC
  • Last Meeting: November 10, 2019 – Falcons defeated the Saints 26-9 in New Orleans 

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Saints at Falcons >>

Overview

Do the Falcons have what it takes to keep things close? If you would’ve asked that question in the middle of last week, the answer may have been more optimistic. However, the Buccaneers pulled on the thread of this Falcons’ defense to exposure some glaring weaknesses. Will the Falcons be able to pick themselves up in a shortened week? Even if they do, will that be enough to remain competitive against the Saints? After all, New Orleans represents the class of the NFC South, and they are hungry to secure a first-round bye (and home-field advantage) in the playoffs. 

Trends

  • The Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games. 
  • The Falcons are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. 
  • Over is 4-1 in the Saints’ last five vs. NFC South. 
  • Under is 4-1 in the Falcons’ last five home games. 

Prop Bets

Alvin Kamara OVER 51 Receiving Yards
Kamara has been right around this number for three straight games, and he’ll see plenty of opportunities to hit the over. The New Orleans running back has drawn 27 targets over his past three games, and the Saints will continue to feed him through the air. The only thing holding Kamara back is his failure to make a big play receiving, as his longest catch is 17 yards over his past three games. A discouraged Falcons’ defense playing on a shortened week will help him reach the over. 

Bottom Line

An overwhelming 76% of BettingPros’ experts and 67% of the public are siding with the Saints -6.5 here. I’m in agreement with them, as I believe the Falcons have the Saints’ full attention after what happened earlier this month. New Orleans rolls in their quest to clinch a first-round bye. 

Pick: Saints -6.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook

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Spencer Limbach is a featured writer at BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Spencer, check out his archive and follow him @spencer_jl.