New York Giants vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds & Game Pick (2021)
Is it time to press the panic button in Kansas City?
That’s the question many NFL fans and observers are asking right now. Frankly, the Chiefs seem a bit broken. Their offense is scuffling. Their defense is appalling. Things aren’t good in K.C. right now. But if there was ever a human form of a slump buster, it might be Daniel Jones and the New York Giants.
Can we trust the Chiefs to right the ship and cover a massive number on Monday night? Or will Jones and the Giants continue to be road warriors against the spread? Let’s break it down.
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Details
- Opening line: Kansas City -10
- Current line: Kansas City -9.5
- Total: 52.5
What are the New York Giants?
I’m genuinely asking because I don’t know for sure. The Giants have a tendency to be incompetent for a couple of weeks, then completely surprise you. That’s what happened last week when the G-men dominated the Carolina Panthers at home.
New York’s offense has been the walking wounded this season. Jones, Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, and Kadarius Toney have all missed time at various points of the year. But the Giants might finally be getting some good luck on the injury front, as coach Joe Judge said he expects Barkley, Golladay, and Toney all to get on the practice field Friday. If all three of them can play, that’d be an enormous boost to an offense that ranks 27th in overall DVOA.
As for Jones, he’s actually been less sloppy with the football. He has just four interceptions and two lost fumbles on the season, which is pretty good for him. I’ve never been a Jones believer and suspect the Giants will move on from him if things don’t turn around drastically this season. It starts with a good performance against a Chiefs defense that’s let everybody carve it up this season.
Defensively, the Giants are rather mediocre, ranking 19th in overall defensive DVOA, 16th in pass defense DVOA, and 22nd in run defense DVOA. New York only generates pressure on 19.6% of dropbacks, which means Patrick Mahomes could enjoy a clean pocket for most of the night.
Is it time to buy the dip on the Chiefs?
The public sentiment of the Chiefs probably hasn’t been this low since Patrick Mahomes took the reins as the team’s starting quarterback. And the doubt surrounding Kansas City starts with its defense. The Chiefs rank 31st in all major defensive DVOA categories and have given up at least 27 points in all but one game this season. They’re giving up 6.6 yards per play, the most in the NFL, and don’t do much, if anything well.
The Chiefs have never really had an elite defense during their recent run, but it’s never gotten this bad, as the team is weak at all three levels. After several years of elite QB play on a cheap contract, the Chiefs are struggling to add talent now that Mahomes’ record-setting contract has hit.
Kansas City’s defensive struggles have clearly impacted Mahomes and the Chiefs offense, which seems to be under pressure to score on essentially every drive. That burden is clearly weighing on Mahomes, who already has nine interceptions on the season.
It’s fair to wonder if teams are figuring this Chiefs offense out a bit. We’ve seen opponents show more two-high safety looks against the Chiefs in an effort to prevent Tyreek Hill from gauging them deeply. That’s caused the offense to scuffle, as the threat of Hill downfield tends to open up Travis Kelce and other weapons on intermediate routes over the middle.
At some point, the Chiefs have to adjust to how opponents are playing against them. And while this might upset fantasy football players, that means Kansas City needs to run the ball more. The Chiefs actually rank 4th in rushing DVOA and 10th in adjusted line yards.
What will help Kansas City the most right now is to play slower and with more patience offensively. The Chiefs play at the fourth-fastest pace in the NFL, and it’s doing them no favors. A 10-play scoring drive counts the same as a 5-play scoring drive. This offense didn’t suddenly get bad. It just needs to be more methodical. The best way Kansas City can protect its defense is to keep it off the field and prioritize efficiency over explosiveness.
Bottom Line
This might be crazy, but I’m going to buy low on the Chiefs here. Andy Reid is one of the smartest coaches of all time. He has to know his offense needs to change how it operates. And I suspect it’ll start this week.
Fortunately for the Chiefs, the Giants shouldn’t offer much resistance against the run. Mahomes will have his moments for sure, but I expect Kansas City to break out a new identity this week. And while the Giants have performed better on the road this year, I don’t trust Daniel Jones to take care of the football in a game where possessions are critical.
This feels like a get-right game for Kansas City at a point where believers are starting to jump off the bandwagon. I’d wait to see how far this line dips, as I expect more money to come in on the Giants. But give me the Chiefs with a lean on the under.
The pick: Chiefs -8.5 or better, lean under 52.5
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.