New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens Odds & Game Pick

by Raju Byfield |
Dec 11, 2019

The Baltimore Ravens will take on the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football. Primetime is the ideal opportunity for casual fans to take in the marvel that is Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens offense. While this contest is likely to be a blowout, the current consensus point spread of -14.5 on Baltimore is going to make it a very interesting one from a betting perspective. Letâ€™s dig in.

FanDuel Sportsbook: View our review and access special sports betting offers >>

Details

Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -14.5 on the Baltimore Ravens. The consensus over/under total opened at 44 points. The point spread has seen some movement but has moved back to its opening line of -14.5. The over/under total has climbed to 45.
Current Line: Baltimore -14.5
O/U: 45
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
Start Time: 8:20 PM EST, Thursday, December 12th
Last Meeting: New York defeated Baltimore 24-16 â€“ October 23, 2016

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Jets at Ravens. >>

Overview

The 12-2 Baltimore Ravens have been the most entertaining team to watch in the entire NFL. Led by MVP front runner Lamar Jackson, the Ravens have completely transformed what was an offense stuck in the mud when led by long-time quarterback Joe Flacco just last season. Their defense is now playing at a level commensurate with their offense, and after victories over the New England Patriots, the San Francisco 49ers, the Houston Texans, and the Seattle Seahawks, it is fair to wonder if anyone can stop this Ravens team that has not lost since Week 4 of the regular season. Baltimore dropped two entirely winnable games in back to back weeks to the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cleveland Browns, but are now on a major roll. The Ravens have already punched their ticket to the postseason and will look to inch one step closer to home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a victory over the New York Jets on Thursday Night.

The New York Jets sit at 5-8 on the season but have won four of their last five contests. Star running back Leâ€™Veon Bell is due back for Week 15 after missing Week 14â€™s contest with the flu. The defense has been down C.J. Mosley for most of the season, traded away top defensive lineman Leonard Williams, and now will be without the services of Jamal Adams for the second straight week. Robby Anderson and Sam Darnold are starting to click again, and it has resulted in good things for the Jets offense. Their recent wins have come against four of the worst teams in the league in Washington, the Miami Dolphins, the New York Giants, and the Oakland Raiders. Facing the Ravens is going to be the most difficult matchup they have played in since Week 7 against the New England Patriots. They are going to have their work cut out for them.

Trends

New York is 5-8 ATS on the season.
New York is 2-4 ATS on the road this season.
Baltimore is 7-6 ATS on the season.
Baltimore is 2-4 ATS at home this season.
New York is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 contests.
New York is 1-5 ATS in their last six contests against the AFC.
New York is 1-4 ATS in their last five road contests.
New York is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road contests against teams with winning home records.
Baltimore is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests.
Baltimore is 4-0 ATS in their last four contests against the AFC.
Baltimore is 1-6 ATS in their last seven contests against teams with losing records.
Under is 7-3 in New Yorkâ€™s last 10 contests against the AFC.
Over is 5-2 in New Yorkâ€™s last seven contests as a road underdog.
Under is 9-4 in New Yorkâ€™s last 13 road contests against teams with a winning home record.
Over is 5-1 in New Yorkâ€™s last six contests following a loss ATS.
Under is 5-1 in Baltimoreâ€™s last six contests as a home favorite.
Under is 5-2 in Baltimoreâ€™s last seven home contests.
Under is 4-1 in Baltimoreâ€™s last December contests.

Prop Bets

Ravens team total over 30 points (-110)
The Baltimore Ravens are averaging 33.1 points per game this season and will be facing a New York Jets defense that has allowed the ninth most points per contest. Increasing the appeal of the over is the fact that Jamal Adams is likely to miss his second straight contest. His absence will severely weaken the Jets secondary, making it all the more likely that Baltimore is able to clear the 30 point total. The Ravens are a little banged up on the short week so it is imperative to wait until we get official statuses on Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews on the teamâ€™s final injury report on Wednesday. If either of them are designated as game-time decisions, waiting until game day inactives are announced is recommended before placing this wager. Baltimore has been held under 30 points in two straight contests, but those came against the San Francisco 49ers and the Buffalo Bills, teams with two of the best defensive fronts in the league. Baltimore scored 30 or more points in five straight contests before that. They have hit the 30 point total in eight of their 13 contests this season. Three of the contests they failed to hit 30 in came against divisional opponents. Lock this in as a two-unit play if both Jackson and Andrews suit up for Week 15.

Baltimore Ravens -9/Over 38 teaser (-110)
With the full game line set at such a high number on the Ravens, teasing the Ravens spread and the over/under total down gives us a nice way to hedge our action on the full game. The Ravens have scored 33.1 points per game by themselves this season, and with the Ravens team total over being our other prop play for this contest, the over 38 portion of this teaser prop has tremendous appeal. The Ravens have a strong chance of scoring 38 or more points on their own against a depleted Jets defense. As far as the teased down spread is concerned, Baltimore at -9 for this contest presents significant appeal and would be a multi-unit play if it was the line available for this contest. The win probability for the individual lines for this two-part prop is large enough to the decreased win probability that is automatically assigned to any multi-leg prop or parlay. This teaser deserves multi-unit consideration.

Bottom Line

The current -14.5 consensus point spread for this contest is ridiculous. For most, a line this large would result in an immediate play on the Jets to cover. The problem is however that the Ravens can pretty easily win by 15 or more points. Betting on them to do it however is something different entirely. The Jets have lost by one, 16, and 33 against the playoff-caliber teams they have faced this season. The one-point loss came to the offensively inept Buffalo Bills. Baltimore is the farthest thing possible from being inept on either side of the ball and could explode against one of the softer defenses in the league. The Ravens lead the league with an average scoring margin of 14.9 points. New Yorkâ€™s average scoring margin on the road is -10.3. The 14.5 number is still bigger than one would hope for as the point spread provides limited value on either side. Baltimore has a very strong probability of leading this contest by 15 or more points at some point in this contest, but the backdoor cover risk is too great to warrant anything more than a partial unit play. Lock this one in at -14.5 points at FanDuel before the line goes up, and focus your action on the prop plays listed above.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens -14.5 (-110)