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New York Jets at Buffalo Bills Odds & Game Pick

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The Bills have clinched the fifth seed in the AFC, so there’s really no incentive for them to play their starters for four quarters. Having said that, Bills’ coach Sean McDermott mentioned that the majority of his usual guys will play in Week 17. Backup QB Matt Barkley is expected to see some action, but we can only speculate how much. Most media outlets think QB Josh Allen will see a quarter or so before giving way to Barkley. That certainly changes how this game will be viewed from a betting standpoint. 

The Jets have won two of their last three games, as the defense stepped up in last week’s 16-10 victory at Pittsburgh. WR Robby Anderson is questionable with a calf injury, and there’s a chance he’ll play limited snaps if he’s active. That’s the main injury news from the Jets’ camp, as they will look to close their season on a strong note. New York has actually been solid down the stretch, going 5-2 over their last seven games. They stumbled early in the season, which was mainly due to QB Sam Darnold missing several weeks with an illness. He’s fully healthy now and looking to pull off the upset in Buffalo. 

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Details

  • Opening Line: The spread opened at Bills -1 with the total at 37. 
  • Current Line: Bills -1.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
  • O/U: 36.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
  • Location: New Era Field – Buffalo, NY
  • Start Time: 1:00 ET
  • Television: CBS
  • Last Meeting: September 8, 2019 – Bills won 17-16 in New York 

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Jets at Bills >>

Overview

This is not an easy game to handicap, as we have so many moving parts with Buffalo wrapping-up the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs. Bills’ QB Josh Allen is only expected to see about a quarter of action, but will that hold true for the rest of the starters as well? Can QB Matt Barkley get the job done while holding down the fort for 75% of the game? The Jets rank second in overall rushing defense, so there will be pressure on him to consistently move the chains. The Bills defense is definitely stingy, but how long will we see the starters on that side of the ball? 

Trends

  • The Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five as road underdogs. 
  • The Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last si against the AFC East. 
  • The under is 4-1 in the Jets’ last five games overall. 
  • The under is 4-1 in the Bills’ last five games overall. 

Prop Bet

Le’Veon Bell OVER 57 Rushing Yards
Bell has been a huge part of the Jets’ offense over the last two games, seeing 46 carries for 159 combined yards over that span. I’m expecting him to see another 20-25 touches in this divisional tilt, which should push him over this 57 rushing yard threshold. The Bills are extremely tough against the run, but they could be a little more forgiving if the starters only play a fraction of the game. 

Bottom Line

As mentioned earlier, this is a difficult game to handicap. 77% of the public has sided with the Bills, but I’m going in the opposite direction. I believe the Jets will pick up the outright road victory against Buffalo’s backups. 

Pick: Jets +1.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook

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Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 17

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Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (+3.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-16.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+1)
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+3)

Spencer Limbach is a featured writer at BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Spencer, check out his archive and follow him @spencer_jl.