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New York Jets vs New England Patriots NFL Sports Betting Guide 

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This is going to be an interesting contest. On one side we have a quarterback many consider the greatest of all-time. On the other side we have the New York Jets third-string quarterback. The Patriots continue to dominate the AFC, and more specifically the AFC East. This is expected to a one-sided affair that is hard to watch when Falk is forced to throw the ball. The Jets’ season opened with a lot of promise as the team opened their wallet in free agency, but a bout of mono, a season-ending injury to Quincy Enunwa, a suspension to Chris Herndon, and the release of third-round steal Jachai Polite has left the team in much different shape than they found themselves in entering OTAs. The Patriots, despite losing first-round pick N’Keal Harry to injured reserve, look much more formidable than they did heading into August.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The line for this contest opened at -10 for New England. The over/under total opened at 48 points. There has been some unprecedented movement on the point spread. The spread has more than doubled and hit a high of -23 on New England. It now sits at -22.5. The total has also seen significant movement and has dropped from 48 to 43.5.
  • Current Line: New England -22.5
  • O/U: 43.5
  • Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts 
  • Start Time: 1:00 PM EST, Sunday, September 22nd
  • Last Meeting: New England defeated New York 38-3 – December 30, 2018

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Overview

The New York Jets seemed to have infused their team with enough talent to be a dark horse to make the playoffs. After just two games their postseason hopes have already been dashed. Sam Darnold is out with a case of mono, an illness that can sideline him for up to two months. The Jets are a tad more optimistic about his timeline, but only time will tell. The New York Jets had a really good draft, won in free agency, and then fired their general manager. This is an organization in disarray and only their Pro Bowl level talents can help keep them afloat. Le’Veon Bell will be forced to act as the key cog the Jets paid him to be. On the defensive side of the ball, C.J. Mosley provides them with a player opponents may scheme to avoid. Leonard Williams was joined by exciting rookie Quinnen Williams this offseason. They are one of the most exciting and talented defensive front line duos in all of football. New York lost its first game without Sam Darnold 23-3 but could very well score more points against the Patriots. The current Vegas total and spread peg them for at least 10 points. In 2018, the Jets tied the Raiders for the worst mark in the AFC at 4-12. With Luke Falk potentially under center for more than half of the season, it is going to be a tough task to better that mark. With that said, New York does have the schedule, particularly in the mid-to-late season, to improve on their 2018 record

The New England Patriots are once again the favorites to win the Super Bowl. They had a strong offseason that saw them add Antonio Brown and first-round pick N’Keal Harry at wide receiver. The team also chose to load up their running back room during the NFL Draft and selected starter-ready Damien Harris from Alabama in the third round. While Harris has been inactive for the first two contests, Antonio Brown made his Patriots debut in Week 2. On defense, the Patriots lost star Trey Flowers to Matt Patricia and the Detroit Lions. They attempted to make up for the loss by bringing back defensive end Michael Bennett and drafting exciting Michigan edge rusher Chase Winovich. They added to their linebacking corps by bringing back another familiar face in Jamie Collins. New England has opened the season with a convincing 2-0 record. They have shredded their opponents on offense and have played surprisingly strong defense. They have yet to face a team projected to make the playoffs and will not face one until Week 8 against Cleveland. The New England Patriots went 11-5 in 2018 and have a shockingly soft 2019 schedule that may allow them to achieve a 14-2 mark. 

Trends

  • Under is 6-0 in the last six contests between these two teams. 
  • The home team is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine contests between these two teams. 
  • The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests between these two teams. 
  • New York is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests against New England.
  • New York is 0-3-1 ATS in their last four contests in New England. 
  • New York is 2-5 ATS in their last seven road contests. 
  • New York is 2-7 ATS in their last nine contests following a straight-up loss. 
  • New York is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road contests against teams with winning home records. 
  • New York is 1-6 in their last seven contests following a loss ATS. 
  • New York is 1-7 ATS in their last eight contests against the AFC East. 
  • New York is 0-5-1 in their last six contests against teams with winning records. 
  • New York is 0-5 ATS in their last five September contests. 
  • New York is 0-3-1 ATS in their last four contests against the AFC.
  • New England is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home contests against teams with a losing home records. 
  • New England is 7-2 ATS in their last nine contests against the AFC East. 
  • New England is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 contests against teams with losing records. 
  • New England is 10-4 in their last 14 September contests. 
  • New England is 35-17-2 in their last 54 contests against the AFC. 
  • New England is 19-7 in their last 26 contests following a straight-up win. 
  • Under is 4-1 in New York’s last five September contests. 
  • Under is 6-2 in New York’s last eight contests against the AFC East. 
  • Under is 5-1-1 in New York’s last seven contests following a double-digit loss. 
  • Under is 4-1 in New York’s last five road contests against teams with winning home records. 
  • Under is 4-0 in New England’s last four September contests.
  • Under is 5-1 in New England’s last six home contests. 
  • Under is 7-1 in New England’s last eight contests against the AFC East. 
  • Under is 8-3 in New England’s last 11 contests against the AFC. 
  • Under is 7-3 in New England’s last 10 contests following a straight-up win. 
  • Under is 20-8 in New England’s last 28 contests against teams with losing records. 

Prop Bets

Le’Veon Bell over 50 receiving yards (+106)
Unless he gets hurt, Bell is a strong bet to cover this total. He piled up 10 receptions for 61 receiving yards in Week 2. If Luke Falk taught us anything by his Week 2 performance it is that he is going to feed his stud running back. Over 25 yards rushing is also available at PointsBet and should be considered by anyone willing to eat some heavy juice and place action on a -334 line. The Bell receiving props are by far the best values of the player props currently offered for this contest. If you have the extra units to work with, the suggestion is to hedge. Lay enough units on the over 25-yard prop to return the unit total you place on the over 50-yard prop. This strategy here is that you, in essence, insure your action on the more riskier of the two bets. Bell is almost assured to cross the 25 receiving yard total. 

Home team moneyline and under 43.5 (-114)
The trends suggest that this is the safest wager to make for this contest. The prop offered by 888Sport would have much more appeal at 48 points, but there still appears to be some semblance of value on the under. The Jets are going to have a very hard time scoring on the road against a tough New England defense. Based on the current total and point spread, New York is projected to score between 10-13 points. This prop should be seriously considered.

Bottom Line

The line movement in this contest is staggering. With that said, one has to take into account that the Week 2 lines that saw the massive movement were offered well before Sam Darnold fell victim to mono. -22.5 is a line to fade. Three touchdowns plus could easily be covered by the Patriots, but there is limited value in the line. If we do a little line shopping with the books we have listed on our live odds page, we can see that -22 is available at 888Sport. The juice is -115 but is preferable to taking the extra .5 and losing out on the push opportunity. The ideal way to approach this line if one is set on taking spread action on the full game is to buy points. We can buy points and move the line to -20 (-20.5 and -21 are not offered). The odds on this alternative line currently sit at -159. As you can see from the prop bet choices listed above, juice is never a deterrent when there appears to be more value on the line than the odds reflect. Buy yourself some breathing room and take New England -20 for a full unit return. 

Pick: New England Patriots -20 (-159)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.