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NFC South: Win Totals and Record Projections for Falcons, Panthers, Saints, and Buccaneers

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The NFL schedule is official, which means hungry sports bettors can rejoice knowing that NFL team futures can finally be placed. Obviously, there is still plenty of time for rosters to change between now and the start of the regular season, but I’m going to take a look at the schedules for NFC teams and provide advice on individual team’s win totals based on what each team looks like right now.

Today I’ll be focusing on what is shaping up to be the best division in football, the NFC South. All win total projections come from FanDuel.

Find consensus odds and over/unders for all teams’ win totals using BettingPros Team Future Lines >>

ATLANTA FALCONS

  • 2019 Record: 7-9
  • 2020 Strength of Schedule: (.525) – T-5th hardest
  • 2020 Win Total: Over 7.5 (+100) / Under 7.5 (-120)

This may surprise some, but I have this one as one the easier overs of the season. The Falcons finished last season winners of six of their last eight games, including a victory in San Francisco over the eventual NFC champion 49ers. Because of the way the team performed after a terrible 1-7 start, head coach Dan Quinn gets one more shot to try to get the Falcons back to the Super Bowl contender they were just a few years ago.

With all eyes on the inevitable clash between Tom Brady and the Bucs and Drew Brees and the Saints, a lot of people are overlooking the Falcons and writing them off before the season even begins. The truth is, they’re a better team than they were last year, and due to some close losses last season, they could have easily been 9-7 or 10-6. Looking at this season’s schedule, finding eight wins isn’t all that difficult.

The Falcons will likely trade wins and losses in their first seven games, with four home victories coming against the Seahawks, Bears, Panthers, and Lions, and three road losses to the Cowboys, Packers, and Vikings. But the Lions win will propel them onto a three-game winning streak as they take down the Panthers in Carolina and the Broncos at home. That puts the Falcons at 6-3 heading into the bye, with four games against the Saints and Buccaneers on the schedule in the back half.

The good news for the Falcons is that their schedule is quite favorable in terms of travel. They don’t play back to back road games until Week 16 and 17, which means they will never be too far from Atlanta all season long. 

The Week 11 matchup in New Orleans will be interesting, as the Falcons will be coming off their bye. The edge goes to the Saints, but the Falcons could surprise in New Orleans. The Falcons will then rattle off four straight victories, taking down the Raiders, Saints, and Bucs in Atlanta, and the Chargers on the road in LA. 

Some might wonder if the Falcons are really good enough to take down both the Bucs and Saints this season, but one key on the schedule for the Falcons is that their divisional games take place close together. The Falcons will see both the Saints and Bucs twice in three weeks. The coaching staff that loses the first contest will have a quick turnaround time to carve up some revenge and make the necessary adjustments. 

And even if the Falcons get swept by both Tampa and New Orleans, that would still put them at 8-8, which is still over 7.5 wins. This one is going over.

Week 1 vs Seahawks Win Week 9 vs Broncos Win
Week 2 at Cowboys Loss Week 11 at Saints Loss
Week 3 vs Bears Win Week 12 vs Raiders Win
Week 4 at Packers Loss Week 13 vs Saints Win
Week 5 vs Panthers Win Week 14 at Chargers Win
Week 6 at Vikings Loss Week 15 vs Buccaneers Win
Week 7 vs Lions Win Week 16 at Chiefs Loss
Week 8 at Panthers Win Week 17 at Buccaneers Loss

 
2020 Record Prediction: 10-6

The Pick: Over 7.5 wins

CAROLINA PANTHERS

  • 2019 Record: 5-11
  • 2020 Strength of Schedule: (.500) – T-14th easiest
  • 2020 Win Total: Over 5.5 (-130) / Under 5.5 (+110)

The Panthers made a lot of changes in the offseason. Cam Newton is gone, Teddy Bridgewater is in. Head coach Ron Rivera was let go which paved the way for Matt Rhule. The signing of Bridgewater is exciting for a team that struggled at the quarterback position during the back half of last season, but will it be enough to get the Panthers to six wins?

Simply put, no. Bridgewater is a solid quarterback and did great things for the Saints last season when Drew Brees was out with injury. But the problem with Bridgewater is that he’s not going to win you games. He’s not going to lose you them either, which will be a relief for the Panthers after a season’s worth of Kyle Allen, but the Panthers defensive unit isn’t nearly as good as the Saints’ was last year, meaning the Panthers are going to likely ask too much of Bridgewater in his first season under center.

It also doesn’t help that their schedule is hard. I have them going 0-6 in the division, and while they may be able to pull off a surprise victory in one game, that’s really as far as I see it going. The Saints, Bucs, and Falcons are all just better teams than the Panthers, so 1-5 seems like a best-case scenario.

Even if they manage to win three out of four over the AFC West, knock off the Cardinals and takedown Washington, it’s still unlikely they cross the 5.5 win threshold. Their other four games are against the NFC North, giving them home games against the Bears and Lions, and road games against the Packers and Vikings. They definitely get the easier opponents at home, but the Lions and Bears are still much better teams than the Panthers.

And who’s to say they are able to win the five games mentioned? They could easily lose to the Chargers, Broncos, and Raiders, and a late-season road game in Washington where neither team has anything to play for could be a real toss-up. This is a team destined for five or fewer wins.

Week 1 vs Raiders Win Week 9 at Chiefs Loss
Week 2 at Buccaneers Loss Week 10 vs Buccaneers Loss
Week 3 at Chargers Loss Week 11 vs Lions Loss
Week 4 vs Cardinals Win Week 12 at Vikings Loss
Week 5 at Falcons Loss Week 14 vs Broncos Win
Week 6 vs Bears Loss Week 15 at Packers Loss
Week 7 at Saints Loss Week 16 at Washington Loss
Week 8 vs Falcons Loss Week 17 vs Saints Loss

 
2020 Record Prediction: 3-13

The Pick: Under 5.5 wins

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

  • 2019 Record: 13-3
  • 2020 Strength of Schedule: (.590) – 9th easiest
  • 2020 Win Total: Over 10.5 (+100) / Under 10.5 (-120)

After being knocked out of the playoffs in heartbreaking fashion each of the past three seasons, all eyes are on Drew Brees and the Saints as they look to finally end the season on top. The win total is high, and the division is certainly more competitive than the one they dominated last season, but 10.5 wins aren’t out of reach by any means.

First, let’s take a look at the division. As with everyone else, I see the Saints sweeping Carolina. After that, they split with Tampa and Atlanta giving them four wins before looking at the other 10 games on their schedule.

The schedule lines up well for them to sweep the AFC West since they get the Chiefs at home rather than in Arrowhead. They’re up to eight wins now, with six games left. A home game against the Packers in Week 3 will draw a lot of attention, and is one place for a possible slip, as is the game the following week in Detroit. Matthew Stafford always seems to play well against Brees. The Saints split those two games bringing them to nine wins.

They get their tenth win in Chicago and knock off the 49ers in the Superdome in a rematch of last season’s most entertaining game, to achieve 11. But even if they fall to the 49ers, they should still be able to hit 11 wins with a Week 16 home game against the Vikings. The Saints are always hard to beat in the Superdome and most of their difficult non-division games take place there: Packers, 49ers, Chiefs, and Vikings.

In a worst-case scenario, the Saints split those four home games which brings them down to 11 wins, but barring an epic slip up to a team far beneath their talent level, it’s hard to see them dropping to 10.

Week 1 vs Buccaneers Win Week 10 vs 49ers Win
Week 2 at Raiders Win Week 11 vs Falcons Win
Week 3 vs Packers Loss Week 12 at Broncos Win
Week 4 at Lions Win Week 13 at Falcons Loss
Week 5 vs Chargers Win Week 14 at Eagles Loss
Week 7 vs Panthers Win Week 15 vs Chiefs Win
Week 8 at Bears Win Week 16 vs Vikings Win
Week 9 at Buccaneers Loss Week 17 at Panthers Win

 
2020 Record Prediction: 12-4

The Pick: Over 10.5 wins

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

  • 2019 Record: 7-9
  • 2020 Strength of Schedule: (.502) – T-16th easiest
  • 2020 Win Total: Over 9.5 (-130) / Under 9.5 (+110)

The Bucs made the biggest move of the offseason bringing in Tom Brady, and now have one of the most exciting offenses in the league coming into the season. Under the Bruce Arians air-raid passing attack, Brady might be just the guy Tampa needs to get the ball to Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, OJ Howard, and the newly acquired Rob Gronkowski. This is not an argument that Brady will be able to throw long balls to the receivers setting up countless big plays. It’s no secret that he’s past that point of his career. But he also won’t be throwing 30 interceptions as Jameis Winston did a year ago. The Bucs managed to finish 7-9 and had the offense not had to play defense more often than not they could have snuck in a few more wins to get above .500.

Because of Brady, an area that is being overlooked is the Bucs rush defense. They ranked number one in the league last year, giving up 73.8 yards per game. They were trailing a lot, which meant they could stack the box, but a lot of other teams were in the exact same situation and they weren’t giving up that few yards on the ground per game.

If the offense can be as explosive as expected, the Bucs should be fine. But if the offense struggles for some reason, the run defense will be able to keep them in games long enough to get the ball back into the offense’s hands for a game-winning drive. This number is not an overreaction to Brady, but rather a fair number for a solid team.

Looking at the schedule, I have the Bucs finishing 4-2 in the division and rattling off an epic 10 game winning streak after a Week 1 loss to the Saints. During that span, there are certainly losable games. A Week 6 matchup against Green Bay stands out, as does the possibility of a home loss to the Saints in Week 9. But based on where the games are being played, the Bucs should be favored in every single game from week 2 through Week 11. 

In Week 12, they drop a game to the defending Super Bowl champions, then knock off the Vikings before losing two of their final three games to the Falcons and Lions. This would put them at 12-4, a record that may be a little ambitious, but gives them plenty of wiggle room to still go over 9.5 wins. Maybe they lose to the Packers and get swept by the Saints. They would still find themselves at 10-6, which gives you the win if you took the over.

Week 1 at Saints Loss Week 9 vs Saints Win
Week 2 vs Panthers Win Week 10 at Panthers Win
Week 3 at Broncos Win Week 11 vs Rams Win
Week 4 vs Chargers Win Week 12 vs Chiefs Loss
Week 5 at Bears Win Week 14 vs Vikings Win
Week 6 vs Packers Win Week 15 at Falcons Loss
Week 7 at Raiders Win Week 16 at Lions Loss
Week 8 at Giants Win Week 17 vs Falcons Win

 
2020 Record Prediction: 12-4

The Pick: Over 9.5 wins

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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.