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NFL AFC Championship Picks & Player Prop Bets (Bills vs. Chiefs)

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This Sunday, the NFL AFC and NFC Championship Games presents an exciting two-game slate that promises to deliver action-packed matchups, perfect for both casual fans and serious bettors. With games featuring teams battling for their tickets to Super Bowl LIX, there’s plenty to focus on from a betting perspective, including prop bets, spreads, totals, and same-game parlays.

These games offer a wide array of betting opportunities, with two exciting matchups with everything on the line.

Whether you’re targeting individual player props or looking to make the most of the total points and game spreads, this slate is stacked with betting angles to explore. Let’s dive into what you should be keeping an eye on and how to maximize your bets for this exciting Sunday NFL playoff action. Here are our top NFL game picks and player prop bets for the AFC Championship Game: Bills vs. Chiefs.

NFL Conference Championship Picks & Predictions: Bills vs. Chiefs

Sides:

  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 games against teams that held a winning record (72%).
  • The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 12 games (75%)
  • The Chiefs starters have won 22 of their last 23 games.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last 17 games as favorites.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last 11 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in 13 of their last 24 games.
  • The Chiefs have scored last in seven of their last eight home games.
  • The Chiefs are sub-50% ATS at home in their last 28 home games
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in six of their last seven postseason games.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 road games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 20 of the Chiefs' last 31 games.
  • The Chiefs have won eight of their last 10 games as underdogs.
  • Overall, KC is 9-10-1 as road favorites (45%).
  • The Chiefs are 1-7 ATS this season, covering spreads of -6.5 points or greater
  • The Bills have covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in 11 of their last 17 games against AFC opponents.
  • The Bills have won 21 of their last 26 games.
  • Josh Allen is 58% ATS as an underdog (20-14-2). The Bills are 4-4 as underdogs in their last eight appearances as such.
  • The Bills have won 13 of their last 14 home games.
  • The Bills have won each of their last 10 home games.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 23-8 as a favorite since the start of last season and 16-15 ATS.
  • Since the start of 2023, the Bills have been 18-2 straight up and 12-8 ATS at home.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in nine of their last 13 games as favorites (66%).
  • Bills are 9-7 ATS as road favorites.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record (56%).
  • The Bills have won their last 16 home games against opponents on a losing streak.

Totals:

  • KC is 4-5 O/U at home this season, averaging under 42 points per game.
  • Sixteen of the Chiefs' last 25 games have gone UNDER the total points line (19 of the last 27, 70%).
  • Twenty of the Chiefs’ last 26 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line (77%).
  • Three of the Chiefs' last six road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have allowed just three teams to score 27 points against them (the Bills in Week 11, the Panthers in Week 12, and the Broncos in Week 18).
  • Buffalo has scored 30-plus points in 10 of their last 12 games with their starters.
  • Sixteen of the Bills’ last 21 games have gone OVER the total points line – 21 of their last 27 road games.
  • Each of the Bills’ last four road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of the Bills’ last six games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Bills’ last 13 road games have gone OVER the total points line (54%).
  • The Bills have been the first to 20 points in their last 10 home games.
  • Eleven of the Bills’ last 13 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 8-2 toward the over this season (over 50 points per game).
  • Twelve of the Bills’ last 15 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Do you want to be on the opposite side of the Kansas City Chiefs in a close game? I do not. Because all that the team does is win close games.

And that includes projected close games. KC has played three games with a +/- 2-point spread since last year's Super Bowl. They won twice but lost against the Bills this season.

Buffalo has had similar success in +/- 2.5-point spreads, boasting a 4-0 record in applicable matchups (5-2 overall and ATS).

As I noted last week, I felt strongly that the Bills would bring their best against the Ravens. As a result, the game went over the 51-point total even after the Ravens failed to convert the final two-point conversion.

I feel similar about this matchup. Because I strongly believe that Buffalo cannot enter this game with the mindset that they can win a close game versus KC.

They beat the Chiefs by nine points in their earlier matchup in Buffalo. The game went over the 46-point total and Buffalo easily covered.

But the Bills didn't leave anything to chance by winning by two scores. Given that Buffalo is the road team (while also preparing for KC to get favorable calls from the officials), I think they enter this game with an aggressive mindset - very much unlike last week's win against the Baltimore Ravens.

I opened this week leaning toward the under at 47.5 points, but it doesn't take a genius to figure out a game between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen will score 50-plus points.

Each of the Bills’ last four road games have gone OVER the total points line, when they have adopted more aggressive game planning.

And although the Chiefs game went under last week, the Houston Texans are a vastly superior defense to Buffalo (third in DVOA this season).

I like the over at 47.5 points. I also like the Bills' team total at over 23.5 points (-108 DK Sportsbook). They have scored at least 24 points versus the Chiefs in four of the last five matchups.

Buffalo has scored 23-plus points in 79% of their games this season.

As for the final take on the sides...

I'm backing the Chiefs. I can't bet against Mahomes in the playoffs in a close game. The easiest way to ruin your Sunday football viewing experience is to bet against Mahomes. And this seems to be somewhat contrarian. According to BetMGM, 72% of bets placed  are on the Bills to win outright (67% of money wagered).

However, I do say this with the caveat that if Buffalo wins, I think it's by more than a field goal. They need to dominate Kansas City to beat them. It's part of the reason why I like taking Buffalo's team total as they should be aggressive regardless of the Chiefs' offensive approach.

Props:

Travis Kelce has 14 straight games of 70-plus receiving yards in the postseason. Kelce has also averaged one TD per playoff game in his last 11 postseason games.

Noah Gray added 3 catches for 13 yards (three targets) against the Houston Texans.

In his first matchup versus the Bills, Kelce caught just 2 passes on 4 targets for 8 yards. Gray was more involved, recording four receptions on five targets for 23 yards and two touchdowns on a team-high 17% Target share.

I like the over on Gray's 1.5 receptions. He has averaged 2.4 catches this season and has gone over 1.5 receptions in 7 of his last 10 games.

Isiah Pacheco has LESS THAN 34.5 rushing yards in four straight games.

Patrick Mahomes has tossed for 250-plus passing yards in seven of his last 11 games and in eight of his last 11 home games dating back to last year's postseason. Take the OVER on 249.5 passing yards this week (opened 241.5).

Xavier Worthy has four catches or more in eight straight games (5-plus in six straight), with 40-plus yards in all contests. Take over/more than for Worthy's 4.5 receptions and receiving yards this week.

Back in Week 11 versus the Bills, Worthy led the team with four receptions on five targets (17% Target share), amassing 61 yards and a touchdown. All his production came in the first half.

Hollywood Brown had two targets in the first half of last week’s game. He was not heavily targeted, but his snaps were a season-high at 67% with his route participation at 71%. He also had an end zone target but also failed to catch a deep ball from his quarterback (67 air yards).

Even though Brown didn't post a strong box score, the usage was very encouraging for his stats moving forward. Take the over on his 34.5 receiving yards prop (more than 37.5 on Prizepicks). 10 of the last 10 most comparable WRs to Brown have gone over their receiving yards projection versus the Bills.

Brown has 45-plus receiving yards in two of his three games played this season.

DeAndre Hopkins has gone UNDER his receiving yards projection in seven of his last eight games played with the Chiefs this season including the last two games with Marquise Brown in the starting lineup.

Khalil Shakir led the receiving group with 67 yards on 6 catches and seven targets (32% Target share, 27 air yards), including a long reception of 34 yards. Shakir was the only Bills WR to see more than one target in the first half.

According to Next Gen Stats, Shakir recorded all his production against zone coverage, hauling in all 6 of his targets for 67 yards vs. zone (no receptions on one target against man coverage).

Shakir caught a reception against six different Ravens' defenders, where only Brandon Stevens forced an incompletion as the nearest defender. Shakir's only incompletion came in a tight window.

Shakir has gone for 48-plus yards in 10 of 17 games this season (58%). Take the OVER on his 55.5 receiving yards this week (it opened at 53.5 receiving yards on Prizepicks).

Shakir recorded eight receptions on 12 targets (32% Target share) for 70 yards in the first matchup versus the Chiefs (although tight end Dalton Kincaid did not play).

Keon Coleman also missed the first matchup versus the Chiefs.

The Bills rookie WR has 26+ receiving yards in six straight road games.

Last week, Coleman had just 1 target and 1 reception for 5 yards. But Coleman picked up a DPI on a deep pass from Allen. He also remained at the top of the roster in terms of snaps (66%) and routes run (48%) among Bills wideouts.

Among all the Bills WRs, Coleman's receiving yardage prop seems the most exploitable. Keep in mind that in half of those road games, he was going for 49-plus receiving yards. Those were all games where the Bills were road underdogs.

The BP projections have him well north of 19 yards (27.2). I also love his long-shot anytime touchdown odds as a major red-zone threat.

I really like his outlook this week, and I think he’s a fun bet to lead all WRs in receiving yards on Sunday. The odds are listed +3100 on FanDuel Sportsbook. Coleman’s 125-yard game this season is tied for the second-largest yardage game among remaining players left in the playoff pool. McLaurin has a 125-yard game but is unlikely to hit that number against the Eagles. Goedert has the largest game at 170 receiving yards, but that came when Brown was injured back in Week 4.

Amari Cooper last week: 1 target, 0 receptions, 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, long 0 yards. He played 34% of the snaps. Cooper secured 2 of 3 targets for 55 yards, averaging 27.5 yards per catch, with a long of 30 yards in the first matchup versus the Chiefs this season. Leaning toward the MORE THAN on his 1.5 receptions this week. Such a low bar to pass. However, I think I like his teammate slightly more.

Curtis Samuel had 2 targets, 2 receptions, 9 yards, 0 touchdowns with a long of 8 yards against the Ravens. Samuel also had a short 8-yard game taken off on a penalty. He played the 5th-most snaps among Bills WRs. But in the first matchup versus KC, Samuel caught 5 of 6 targets (16% Target share) for 58 yards and a touchdown.

Given the amount of designed looks Samuel gets, I think he easily gets over 1.5 receptions in the rematch versus the Chiefs. He caught three passes in the first half in the 1st Chiefs matchup.

Josh Allen has attempted fewer than 31.5 passes in four straight games. However, they have all been at home. In Allen's last four road games, he has gone OVER 31.5 pass attempts and thrown for more than 280 passing yards.

If Buffalo wants to win this game, they won't be able to be as conservative as they have been over the last month. Before the final four games of the season, Allen had attempted 32-plus passes in seven of eight games.

I think that also makes them very live to score the first touchdown (which you then bet the subsequent Chiefs ML). My approach was initially to not over think this one. Josh Allen first TD lock of the week? Not quite. He only has two 1st TDs all season (same as James Cook). Cook scored the first TD when these teams first played earlier this season. Cook also had seven red-zone touches last week but didn’t score. Given Cook can also score from outside the red zone  – KC’s run defense hasn’t been as good since the start of the season – I like his 1st touchdown odds the most at close to 9-1.

My Picks:

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