NFL: AFC West Sports Betting Guide (2019)
This is the fifth of an eight-part series breaking down each NFL division and its future market.
Last season the AFC West accounted for the two best records in the AFC in Kansas City and Los Angeles who boasted a combined +243 point differential. In the other half of the division, the Broncos let go Vance Joseph and brought in the defensive-minded Vic Fangio to lead a team that showed glimpses of hope last season before going 0-4 in their last four to close out the year. In Oakland, the story has and will most likely remain to be Antonio Brown, who is showing exactly why they got him for the bargain they did. Let’s dive into the division’s future market to see if we can find an edge.
Check out all AFC West future odds here.
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What are the odds?
These odds were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook on August 15, 2019.
| Team | Super Bowl | Division | Win Totals | To Make Playoffs |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +800 | -155 | o10.5 (+115) / u10.5 (-135) | Yes (-304) / No (+240) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +1600 | +170 | o9.5 (-160) / u9.5 (+135) | Yes (-198) / No (+160) |
| Denver Broncos | +7000 | +1300 | o7 (-105) / u7 (-115) | Yes (+380) / No (-550) |
| Oakland Raiders | +10000 | +1600 | o6.5 (+165) / u6.5 (-195) | Yes (+560) / No (-850) |
What happened last year?
| Team | SU Record | ATS Record | O/U | Points For | Points Against | Net Points |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 12-4 | 9-6-1 | 10-5-1 | 565 | 421 | 144 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 12-4 | 9-7-0 | 8-8-0 | 428 | 329 | 99 |
| Denver Broncos | 6-10 | 6-9-1 | 3-12-1 | 329 | 349 | (20) |
| Oakland Raiders | 4-12 | 6-10-0 | 6-9-1 | 290 | 467 | (177) |
Best Bet?
Oakland Raiders – UNDER 6.5 Wins (-195)
I know this is a lot of juice to be laying on a season-long future, so do shop around, but I don’t see any road to this team winning more than five games this season. Led by a head coach Jon Gruden who arguably should even have a head coaching job if it wasn’t for Raiders’ owner Mark Davis’ propensity for shiny things, they have a quarterback in Derek Carr whose TD-Interception Ratio (19:10 last season) has declined every year since 2015. He will soon learn that while Antonio Brown is surely an all-time talent, he can expect his interceptions to rise even further this season after repeated demands for targets from the get-go.
The Raiders struggled mightily last season but especially on the road where they were 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS, numbers that shouldn’t be expected to improve this season. After two early home games against division foes Denver and Kansas City, the Raiders play seven of their road games in the 1 p.m. EST time slot this season including the London game in Week 5. Following the bye in Week 6, which they could easily go into 0-5, they go back to back games on the road against Green Bay and Houston.
Beyond a brutal schedule, the Raiders did little this offseason to indicate they can improve on their AFC worst -177 point differential. While bringing in Brown and other splash names such as Tyrell Williams and Lamarcus Joyner, they lost arguably their best guard in Kelechi Osemele and veteran tight end Jared Cook.
All in all, this is one of the more perplexing season win totals for me as I just can’t find the three wins the Raiders will need to improve from a division worst 4-12 this season. If anything, the rest of the AFC West has improved, while I expect this team to continue to descend into the AFC’s cellar as their move to Vegas sits on the horizon.
AFC East Sports Betting Guide
AFC South Sports Betting Guide
AFC North Sports Betting Guide
NFC North Sports Betting Guide
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.