NFL Anytime TD Scorers Picks & Predictions: Week 1 (2026)
Each week in this space, I will highlight several of my favorite NFL anytime touchdown bets for the Sunday slate. I’ll include at least one longshot every week for the people. Just remember to keep your bet sizes in check, especially on longshot bets. I generally try to win one unit on each wager priced at -101 odds or higher. That is why you will rarely ever see me list some of the chalkier running backs. The risk is too high for my liking. If a player offers plus-money odds, I will bet enough to win at least one unit unless otherwise designated. For example, if a player is +250 to score, I will generally risk 0.4 or 0.5 units. The odds on these bets can vary a lot as game time approaches and injury information comes in. So, always shop for the best price possible. Here are my NFL Week 1 anytime touchdown scorer picks.
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NFL Week 1 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET) | +115 at BetMGM
Anytime the Detroit Lions play at home, their passing game is worth a look for anytime touchdown bets. Jared Goff's home numbers during his time in Detroit are off the charts. Since 2022, Goff has thrown 81 touchdown passes in 34 regular-season home games. Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to earn more looks as Goff's primary target by the goal line. St. Brown's targets inside the opponents' 10-yard line over the past four years are as follows: 7, 12, 15 and 21. The 21 targets last season were exactly half of Detroit's total targets inside the 10-yard line.
Sunday's matchup against the New Orleans Saints could also work in the wide receiver's favor. The Saints' defense was much improved last season, particularly in the run game. New Orleans ranked third in EPA (expected points added) and fifth in yards per carry allowed against the run last season. They were slightly above average in both EPA versus the pass and touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers.
Detroit does not have much running back depth behind Jahmyr Gibbs. When the Lions are in scoring territory, St. Brown should be a featured option. Given these factors, this is a solid anytime touchdown bet to kick off the Week 1 proceedings.
David Montgomery (RB – HOU) | +105 at Fanatics Sportsbook
Amon-Ra St. Brown's former teammate, David Montgomery, enters the next phase of his NFL career with the Houston Texans. Montgomery's efficiency metrics have dipped in recent years. But his presence down by the goal line will be a welcome addition to a Houston squad whose running backs struggled mightily in that area of the field in 2025.
Texans running backs carried the ball 20 times inside their opponents' 5-yard line last year. Those 20 rushing attempts resulted in just three touchdowns and -1 rushing yard. Some of those woes can be attributed to Houston's offensive line. However, Montgomery's veteran savvy should enable him to find a crease if given the opportunity. Montgomery earned 48 carries inside the 5-yard line as a member of the Detroit Lions across three seasons, and he scored on 22 of those runs.
Montgomery and the Texans have a favorable matchup on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo allowed 24 rushing scores last season, tied for the most in the NFL. They ranked 30th in yards per rush and 31st in EPA against the run. New defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard should be able to turn things around eventually, but it may take some time. Montgomery will have fresh legs heading into his home debut in Houston. This is a prime spot for the 29-year-old to find the end zone and start his Texans tenure on the right foot.
Mark Andrews (TE – BAL) | +200 at Fanatics Sportsbook | *0.6 Units
Mark Andrews caught just five touchdown passes in 2025 after securing more than twice that many (11) the year prior. But it wasn't a role change or dramatic loss of talent that did Andrews in. It was mostly a case of negative regression after an uber-efficient season in the red zone.
In 2024, Andrews was targeted 15 times in the red zone. He caught 13 of those 15 passes, including a perfect 6-for-6 inside the 10-yard line. Last season, Ravens quarterbacks targeted the tight end 14 times in the red zone, including nine times inside the 10-yard line. However, Andrews caught just two of those nine attempts.
If we project Andrews' 2026 touchdown baseline to be between the extremes of the past two seasons, this anytime touchdown bet is an intriguing one at a +200 price point. I think anything at +150 or above is reasonable. Baltimore's matchup against Indianapolis may also work in our favor.
Indianapolis was slightly above average in allowing touchdowns to tight ends last season. But they did allow the second-most receiving yards and third-most targets to the position. With Sauce Gardner on the outside and the Ravens letting Isaiah Likely walk in free agency, Andrews should be one of Lamar Jackson's primary reads throughout this game, especially in the red zone.
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN) | +170 at DraftKings Sportsbook | *0.7 Units
It feels like the sportsbooks are holding Justin Jefferson's 2025 campaign against him regarding his anytime touchdown prop. I am happy to take what feels like a sizable discount. Let's break down Jefferson's touchdown numbers based on the relative competency of Minnesota's quarterbacks.
Jefferson scored 29 touchdowns in 54 games with Kirk Cousins while Cousins was in Minnesota. Following Cousins's departure, Sam Darnold was given the keys to the Vikings’ offense. The result was Jefferson scoring 10 times in 17 games in 2024. That is 39 total touchdowns for Jefferson in 71 games whenever a competent quarterback has been under center. In Jefferson's other 23 career NFL games, he has scored four touchdowns.
This year, Kyler Murray comes to town. Murray should be an upgrade over J.J. McCarthy by default, but the former No. 1 overall pick has some gas left in the tank. Sunday's matchup against the Green Bay Packers is much less daunting without Micah Parsons to account for.
Over the past two seasons, Murray has thrown 24 touchdowns and six interceptions from a clean pocket compared to three touchdowns and eight interceptions when under pressure. Murray should have time to operate and find his new top target.
Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell realizes how frustrating last season was for Jefferson. Considering Jefferson went all of 2025 without scoring a touchdown at home, I think there will be extra incentive to feed him down by the end zone. I am betting on Jefferson to find paydirt and officially put last season in the rear-view mirror.
Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE) | +700 at FanDuel Sportsbook | *0.2 Units
Most of us do not like Deshaun Watson for a variety of reasons, both on and off the field. Having said that, there is some value here from a betting perspective when it comes to him scoring a touchdown on Sunday afternoon.
Watson is back in the saddle for the Cleveland Browns as their starting quarterback. His Week 1 assignment is a tough one against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville ranked second in the NFL in EPA against the pass last season. Watson has only thrown 19 touchdown passes in 19 games as a member of the Browns, so I would rather not target a member of Cleveland's receiving corps.
Jacksonville only allowed 13 rushing touchdowns a season ago. But five of those were scored by opposing quarterbacks. And if you assume these were scored by players like Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts, think again. The five quarterbacks who ran for scores against the Jaguars last season were Jake Browning, Patrick Mahomes, Davis Mills, Riley Leonard and Cam Ward. Mahomes is the only member of that group who scored more than two rushing touchdowns last season.
It is hard to say how much Watson will run after suffering multiple Achilles tears. But he did run five times during the preseason while attempting just 27 passes. He may never produce on the ground as he did during his heyday in Houston. However, at these odds, this anytime touchdown bet is worth a sprinkle.