NFL Anytime TD Scorers Picks & Predictions: Week 10 (2026)

by Mick Ciallela |
Nov 14, 2026

Sometimes, the ball doesn't bounce your way. That was the case last week, as I only hit one of my NFL anytime TD scorers. It was only the second time all season that I failed to connect on multiple bets. The good news is I feel encouraged by the reads themselves. The logic and process remain sound, so we move forward. Below are some of my favorite anytime touchdown bets for Sunday's NFL slate.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Week 10’s Best NFL Anytime TD Scorers

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET) | -111 at BetMGM

For my first pick, I'm running it back with one of last week's losing picks. I am going with Amon-Ra St. Brown of the Detroit Lions against the New England Patriots. Both sides showed many encouraging signs for this pick last week. I expect these trends to help lead the Sun God into the end zone.

Let's start with St. Brown's usage. He earned 40% of Jared Goff's targets last week and caught 47% of his completed passes. Two of those came in the red zone, so both the volume and quality of targets were there. Detroit couldn't find paydirt. They scored just one touchdown for the first time all season. I expect the Lions to do better against a New England Patriots defense that Green Bay's passing attack just torched.

Jordan Love threw for 372 yards and three touchdowns on just 29 pass attempts against the Patriots last week. New England has now allowed three straight quarterbacks to throw for multiple touchdowns.

That includes Miami quarterback Malik Willis, who has thrown four touchdown passes in his other seven games combined. Of the seven passing touchdowns the Patriots have allowed in their last three contests, wide receivers have scored six. They have also allowed the second-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts this year.

If none of that information moves the needle for you, join me on a trip to narrative street. Sunday's game will be played in Germany. St. Brown is a dual American-German citizen. This will be his first NFL game in Germany. He is also currently in the midst of his longest touchdown drought (five games) since 2022.

Still, no NFL wide receiver outside of the injured Michael Wilson has earned more targets inside their opponents' 10-yard line this season. The Lions were already likely to target St. Brown down by the goal line. But I think they’ll have extra incentive to do so under these circumstances.

**DJ Moore (WR – BUF) | +205 at DraftKings Sportsbook | *0.7 Units**

The Buffalo Bills and New York Jets are headed in opposite directions heading into their Week 10 clash. Buffalo won four in a row, and their offense has led the way. They scored at least 33 points in the first three of those victories before last week's 23-6 win. The 23 points they put up against the Vikings are their lowest point total of the season. Meanwhile, the Jets have lost four straight, allowing at least 26 points in each instance. The question isn’t whether Buffalo will score touchdowns; it’s how often.

That said, we have a quandary. Josh Allen has already scored nine rushing touchdowns this season, while James Cook III has scored eight. Both are priced at -155 at theScore Bet to score a touchdown on Sunday. I don't think the odds on either player are too far off. But they are also right at the threshold where I balk at playing an anytime touchdown bet, especially when there are other solid options. Of course, that could present another challenge.

Four Bills have already scored multiple times this season. All four players (Keon Coleman, DJ Moore, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid) are priced similarly, in the +200 range. New York has allowed 10 passing touchdowns in its last four games. They also deploy man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Those two factors swing the pendulum toward Moore for me.

When the Bills face zone coverage, Allen spreads the ball very evenly among his top four pass-catchers. Kincaid has the highest target share among the quartet at 20.7%. Coleman has the fewest targets at 16.9%.

Against man coverage, Moore has earned 35% of Allen's targets. The next highest mark is Kincaid at 24.3%. We're working with small margins here, so I’d take Moore at +205 over Kincaid at +210 or Shakir at +220. Coleman at +290 is intriguing, but I still prefer Moore.

Kyren Williams (WR – LAR) | -127 at BetRivers/Bally's

I fully expected an anytime touchdown bet on Kyren Williams to cost at least as much as James Cook III and Josh Allen. So I was more than happy to grab this at -127 on BetRivers/Bally's. I believe anything under -150 is a bargain.

The Los Angeles Rams are 9.5-point favorites in Arizona on Sunday. That is the second-highest point spread on the Week 10 slate. Oddsmakers seem to believe the Rams will play in a favorable game script and coast to victory. The data supports this hypothesis, and I think Williams is poised to capitalize.

Los Angeles will be without both Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, who are on injured reserve (IR). Williams and Blake Corum should be plenty busy in both building and protecting a Rams lead in this game. Corum is a popular pick, but I still think Williams is a better value even at a higher price.

Williams has 19 opportunities (carries plus targets) inside opponents' 10-yard line this season. That is tied for the seventh-most in the NFL. Corum has only earned four such chances. Even if the split between the two is not as pronounced in this game, their anytime touchdown odds are relatively close. That has me leaning towards Williams.

Williams has scored in six of nine games overall (67%) this season. He has also scored in five of seven games (71%) against Arizona since Nick Rallis became their defensive coordinator in 2023.

These trends, combined with the expected usage and game script, suggest a high likelihood of Williams scoring in this game. Yet, a -127 price implies about a 56% probability of scoring. I will take those odds any day of the week, including this Sunday in the desert.

**Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR – SF) | +185 at theScore Bet | *0.75 Units**

My final non-longshot pick is Deebo Samuel Sr. of the San Francisco 49ers. I expect Samuel to make his return to action felt by finding the end zone against the Dallas Cowboys.

This game features the highest implied total on the slate at 55.5 points. That is a massive number, as is San Francisco's 29.5-point implied total. Brock Purdy should have plenty of opportunities to lead the 49ers into the end zone on Sunday afternoon.

The matchup between the pass offense of the 49ers and the pass defense of the Cowboys is a mismatch in nearly every aspect. San Francisco leads the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per pass play, while Dallas ranks dead last defensively in the same metric. San Francisco has plenty of players who can score in this game. But I think Samuel's versatility in scoring territory will help him get on the scoreboard.

Samuel leads San Francisco wide receivers with four targets inside the 10-yard line this season. He is tied for 15th among NFL wideouts in that stat despite having not played since Week 5. His usage down by the goal line will come in handy against a Dallas defense that has struggled in the red zone. The Cowboys allow a 57% red-zone success rate, the highest in the league. That is a problem, considering they also allow the fifth-most red-zone possessions per game in the NFL.

Samuel lines up all over the formation, so targeting a specific individual matchup may be a fool's errand. But DaRon Bland has been a liability in coverage all season. Among 117 qualified cornerbacks, Bland ranks 106th in Pro Football Focus' (PFF) coverage grade and has allowed four touchdowns.

Rookie Caleb Downs has been playing mostly out of the slot for Dallas in recent weeks with mixed results. He has given up 15 completions on 19 targets in slot coverage, including two touchdowns. I expect Kyle Shanahan to potentially dial up multiple looks for Samuel to score on Sunday.

**Longshot Anytime Touchdown Bet: Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAX) | +500 at DraftKings Sportsbook/BetMGM | *0.35 Units**

Anytime you can place an anytime touchdown bet on a player with one total reception in the last four games, you have to do it. In my defense, a couple of factors are at play that have me picking Brian Thomas Jr. of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Jacksonville declined to deal the third-year wideout at this week's trade deadline. I think that signals Thomas will have a role on this team as they look toward the playoffs. That also means the team will have to get Thomas to keep buying into a declining role. I believe that the best way to do that is to throw Thomas the proverbial occasional bone. In this case, that means end-zone targets. That strategy isn’t unlike what the Jaguars have used for most of the season.

Since Week 4, Thomas ranks second among Jacksonville wide receivers in targets inside the 10-yard line despite being targeted just nine total times in those five games. If Trevor Lawrence keeps looking Thomas' way in the end zone, the pair has a strong chance of connecting against Tennessee. The Titans rank last in the NFL in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) against the pass. A major reason is their poor secondary, especially their cornerbacks.

I mentioned in the Deebo Samuel blurb that only 11 of 117 qualified cornerbacks grade worse than DaRon Bland in coverage. Well, two of those 11 are Tennessee Titans. Joshua Williams ranks 109th, while Alontae Taylor is 116th. Taylor has been so bad that Tennessee may opt to replace him with Marcus Harris. But Harris has not exactly excelled. Opposing receivers have caught 24 of 28 passes against Harris. Cor'Dale Flott has been Tennessee's best corner, and he gave up six catches and a touchdown last week.

Even in a reduced role, I like Thomas’ chances to score in this matchup. Thomas scored in 25% of his games this season, and we are getting him at +500 under extremely favorable conditions. This feels like a good spot for Thomas to make us some money in Music City.

Navigate