NFL Best Bet for Buccaneers at Patriots: Sunday Night Football (Week 4)
If you’re like me, you fall victim to the Sunday scaries every week. The crushing reality of work yet-to-be-done starts to sink in sometime in the afternoon, and it’ll ruin the rest of the day if you let it. Fortunately, it doesn’t have to — just change the channel to ESPN! It’s much easier to procrastinate with Sunday Night Football occupying your attention.
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Picks YTD: 2-1-0 (+0.57u)
All NFL Bets YTD: 12-8-0 (+1.4u)
Mac Jones o37.5 Passing Attempts | -120 (.75u) at PointsBet
Mac Jones o261.5 Passing Yards | -115 (.25u) at PointsBet
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have fallen off defensively. Their secondary has allowed the most passing yards through three weeks (1,046) on the most attempts (144). Dak Prescott threw for 403 yards on 51 attempts against them in Week 1, Matt Ryan went for 300 yards on 46 attempts in Week 2, and Matthew Stafford posted 343 yards on 38 attempts in Week 3. All of those figures sit well above this total. While Mac Jones may not be as good as any of those players, he doesn’t need to be for this prop to hit.
So what’s going on with Tampa’s secondary? Well, they lost cornerback Jamel Dean to an injury last week, and cornerback Carlton Davis has been playing through some injuries of his own. To fix these issues, Tampa signed Richard Sherman. The veteran was decent for the 49ers last year, and ProFootballFocus gave him a 67.7 for his efforts. That isn’t bad, but it won’t be enough to keep Mac Jones from surpassing his yardage total.
Tampa Bay’s defense is also a classic pass funnel. With a stacked defensive line featuring the likes of Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh, the Buccaneers rank seventh in adjusted line yards (3.47) and have surrendered the seventh-fewest rushing yards to running backs (172). As a result, opposing teams have opted for pass-heavy game plans.
The game script also favors the over here. As 6.5-point underdogs, Vegas expects the Patriots to be playing from behind. That will keep them throwing. We saw them do this (futilely) last week against the Saints. Jones attempted 51 passes on his way to 270 passing yards in that game.
I advise that you split a unit on the two props listed above. If you’re looking to use your $20 risk-free bet, bet on Jones’ passing attempts.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.