NFL Best Bet for Colts at 49ers: Sunday Night Football (Week 7)
If you’re like me, you fall victim to the Sunday scaries every week. The crushing reality of work yet-to-be-done starts to sink in sometime in the afternoon, and it’ll ruin the rest of the day if you let it. Fortunately, it doesn’t have to — just change the channel to ESPN! It’s much easier to procrastinate with Sunday Night Football occupying your attention.
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Picks YTD: 5-2-0 (+1.29u)
All NFL Bets YTD: 20-19-0 (-2.76u)
Kyle Juszczyk o14.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at PointsBet
The books do not respect fullbacks. Fortunately, that creates some betting value on their lines. Kyle Juszczyk, the NFL’s highest-paid player at the position, is averaging 27 receiving yards per game, nearly double his posted total. He has hit this over in four of five games.
San Francisco has had to feature Juszczyk in a larger role because their running backs are bad. Rookie sixth-rounder Elijah Mitchell has potential, but he has been inconsistent this year and doesn’t have much of a role in the passing game. He has caught just four balls in three games on 22 routes. Meanwhile, rookie third-rounder Trey Sermon has basically no role with Mitchell healthy and takes a back seat to Juszczyk. They’ll get JaMycal Hasty back for this game against the Colts, and while he could sap some of Juszczyk’s volume out of the backfield, there’s another reason why I’m targeting the fullback here.
With star tight end George Kittle hurt, the 49ers are likelier to line Juszczyk up from the slot. We’ve seen them do it earlier this year: the fullback turned a slot target into a 22-yard gain against the Steelers in Week 2. He may not see a ton of looks split out wide, but you don’t need him to in order for this prop to cash — he just needs two to three targets.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.