NFL Best Bets: Week 3 (2019)
The NFL will look very different than what we are accustomed to in Week 3. We will see the likes of Daniel Jones, Luke Falk, Teddy Bridgewater, Mason Rudolph, and likely Kyle Allen take snaps at quarterback. This isn’t a scenario we could have envisioned even a week ago. However, it presents interesting opportunities not only for these young players but also for us as bettors looking to make a buck. There is a lot of uncertainty around the league this week but let’s dive into five of the best bets for NFL Week 3. See the consensus lines and odds for all games here.
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Atlanta Falcons (+1) at Indianapolis Colts
To start, the Colts’ best defensive player, linebacker Darius Leonard, is still in concussion protocol and is looking more like he will be absent for this game. This is a massive playmaker that is the core of this defense, which opens everything up more for the Falcons offensively. Atlanta’s offense began to click last week, with Matt Ryan passing for over 300 yards and both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley having 100-yard games. The key to this game is the Falcons stopping the Colts’ running game. Last week, Atlanta fully shut down the Philly backfield, giving up just 2.3 yards per carry. I don’t think it’ll be quite that effective, but they will limit the Colts’ backfield enough for Ryan to outplay Jacoby Brissett in the quarterback battle, winning this game for Atlanta, who currently is the more complete football team and the team with more playmakers.
Kansas City Chiefs (-6) vs Baltimore Ravens
Some sites have the Chiefs -7, so playing on FanDuel gives us an extra point to work with. The spread for Kansas City is again narrow, so they will look to win against the spread for a third time this season. To start, the Ravens will be traveling to Arrowhead, which is one of the toughest places to play in the league. The Chiefs outscored opponents by 14.8 at home last season, going 8-1. This is also the Chiefs’ home opener, so you know it will be loud and crazy. Yes, I am aware Lamar Jackson led the Ravens into Arrowhead and forced overtime last season, but this was a better defensive team for Baltimore. Last week, they gave up 349 passing yards to Kyler Murray and let the Cardinals get within three points in the fourth quarter. Even without Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs have too many offensive weapons for the Ravens to contain and keep up with for four quarters. This should be a high-scoring game but look for home-field advantage to shine through and let the Chiefs go 3-0 against the spread to begin the season.
Dallas Cowboys (-22.5) vs Miami Dolphins
I simply do not see a scenario where the Cowboys do not put up at least mid-30s for points. They have averaged 33 points, and the Dolphins have been outscored by an average of 46 points. Dallas typically gets out to fast starts at home. Last season, they averaged eight first-quarter points per game. They scored seven in their home opener this year. Miami has given up 28 first-quarter points. Pro Football Focus gives the Cowboys offensive line a 25 percent advantage in the running game. They will dominate from the opening kickoff. The reason this spread hits will be Dak, who has been looking to attack deep this season. He has completed 6-of-8 passes over 20 yards and all nine of his passes between 10-20 yards. The Dolphins have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 5-of-7 passes over 20 yards and 12-of-14 between 10 and 20 yards. Now, they don’t have Minkah Fitzpatrick and will be even worse Sunday. Look for Dallas to come out hot and never look back.
Houston Texans (+3) at Los Angeles Chargers
This game comes down to offensive weapons and playmakers. The Chargers are still without Melvin Gordon and lost Hunter Henry, so they are down to Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler. The Texans feature players all over their offense that can break loose, including arguably the best receiver in football, DeAndre Hopkins. The biggest knock on the Texans coming into this season was their offensive line, which allowed Deshaun Watson to get killed last season. However, the Chargers have been among the worst in the league at getting pressure this season, getting pressure on only 10 percent of passing snaps. If you give Watson time on 90 percent of his passes, he will make you pay with downfield shots or scrambling with his legs. We know no game played in Los Angeles is a true home game for the Chargers, due to their small stadium and lack of fans support, so look for the Texans to come in and win outright, which doesn’t feel much like an upset at all.
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) vs Carolina Panthers
This game opened with the Panthers being the 2.5-point favorites, but the script has flipped with Cam Newton likely being out with a foot injury. The Cardinals are now 2.5-point favorites at home, which they will be able to clear and find their first win of the season. This offense is beginning to click, after back-to-back 300-yard games from rookie Kyler Murray. He led his team into Baltimore last week and put up a fight, losing by only six points and clearing the spread. The difference for the Cardinals this week will be their running game, which has been mostly contained through two weeks. Carolina nearly gave up 100 yards to a rusty Todd Gurley in Week 1 then gave up 82 yards to Peyton Barber last week. David Johnson will find room to run this week, which will give this offense a balanced attack, making the play-action from Murray that much more dangerous, not to mention the threat of his legs being added to the backfield. Put your money on the 0-1-1 Kyler Murray, not Kyle Allen and the 0-2 Panthers.
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Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.