Week 8 NFL Picks Against the Spread & Over/Under

We are nearly halfway through the NFL regular season, which means we should have a clear picture of the contenders from the teams that barely belong on the field. While we have a good idea about the teams that are struggling (or tanking), determining clear contenders is tougher than it has ever been, unless we’re discussing the Patriots. I think they actually have a shot at the title this year, which is my bold prediction for the week.

Most divisions are up for grabs, and even when we have an undefeated team like the San Francisco 49ers, it’s still tough to label them as a favorite when stacked up against other top NFC talent. This makes for crazy games, odd spreads and, most of all, exciting football as we head into the cold season.

To make sense of some of the spread for this Week 8 slate of NFL action, here are the five best NFL bets.

See the consensus lines and odds for all games here.

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Cincinnati Bengals (+13) at Los Angeles Rams
The Bengals are bad and will almost definitely lose this game, but the fact that they have hung around in games should give bettors confidence that they can clear the double-digit spread on a neutral field. Excluding the two blowouts against the 49ers and Steelers, the Bengals lost their other five games by an average of 4.8 points, mostly due to the production from Andy Dalton and the passing game. The key to this working is Cincinnati getting pressure on Goff, which I think they will be able to do. Last week, they were able to pressure Gardner Minshew on 25 plays, totaling two sacks. As long as they hurry Goff, he will make mistakes, opening the door for a rare play to be made by this defense. Offensively, Dalton continues to be solid enough to put up points for Cincinnati, just not good enough to make winning plays.
Pick: Bengals (+13)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) at Tennessee Titans
After a bye week, Jameis Winston and the Bucs’ offense should come out looking better. While Tennessee’s defense is solid, there are key matchups Tampa can exploit. For example, Malcolm Butler will face Mike Evans for most of the day. Butler has struggled this season, giving up three touchdowns and 12.9 yards per catch. But Evans also has a six-inch advantage and will use it well down the sideline. Defensively, Tampa has completely turned around from last season. They give up just 68 rushing yards per game, and this is with games against Alvin Kamara, Todd Gurley, the 49ers’ committee, Saquon Barkley, and two against Christian McCaffrey. This is bad news for Derrick Henry, and the Titans’ offense will start and end with Ryan Tannehill. In the two games that Henry has averaged fewer than three yards per rush this season, the Titans scored just seven points total. The game will be on Tannehill’s back to keep them in it, and in this scenario, I’m putting my money on Bruce Arians and the Bucs.
Pick: Buccaneers (+3)

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (Under 54)
It looks like the Falcons will have two big losses to their offense this week. First, they traded away Mohamed Sanu, who has been one of the most consistent, reliable weapons on the offense in recent seasons. It also appears that Matt Ryan could miss the game with an injury, which means that Mr. Pick Six, Matt Schaub, would be back throwing passes. With Seattle losing a terrific receiving option in Will Dissly, their offense has taken a hit. Still, they are projected to win this game, being favored by 6.5 points. In wins, Seattle naturally runs the ball a lot more. Chris Carson averages just 12.8 carries in losses, but 20 in wins. We should see a heavy dose of Carson and the rushing attack for Seattle on Sunday, slowing down the game, limiting possessions, and leading long drives.
Pick: Under 54

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Packers seemed to put it all together last week for the first time under Matt LaFleur, with Aaron Rodgers reminding the rest of the country how good he is. This week, they face a Chiefs defense that has only looked good against Joe Flacco and the Denver offense, which shouldn’t give anyone confidence. Sure, it’s tough to come into Arrowhead and win games, but you know who did? The Texans and Colts both did in the last two home games for the Chiefs, and the Ravens nearly pulled off the upset in their one other home game. Patrick Mahomes is not ruled out yet, which is idiotic. If he plays, it’s a benefit to the Packers and the talented pass rushers they have. But of course, Mahomes will not play and Matt Moore will be the one throwing passes. One would assume the Chiefs try to establish the run early to attack the Packers’ weakness and take some pressure off of Moore, but the Kansas City offensive line is not good enough to do it, shown by their 111 rushing yards in their last two games combined.
Pick: Packers (-3.5)

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)
The Colts get the home advantage and are the much better team in this game. After beating Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson in back-to-back games, they have “elite” Joe Flacco coming to town after losing one of his top receiving weapons to a trade. Essentially, it’s Flacco and a bunch of inexperienced players on this offense. He has two second-year receivers, two second-year running backs, and a rookie tight end. Meanwhile, the Colts are finding their rhythm with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback after he posted four touchdowns last week. With advantages with their depth of offensive weapons, in the trenches, and with their coaching staff, Indy will clear this spread at home.
Pick: Colts (-5.5)

Week 7 Results: 3-1-1
Season to Date: 19-14-2

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Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.