NFL Betting: 10 Non-Quarterbacks Who Most Impact the Spread (2022)
It’s no secret that QBs have the largest impact when it comes to point spreads in the NFL, but what about other positions and players? Many factors come into play when assessing a player’s value toward the spread. Still, it boils down to a combination of performance on the field, importance to their team’s scheme, and the drop-off in production at the replacement level. This article will break down the 10 non-QBs who mean the most to the point spread in the 2022 NFL season.
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10. Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN) | 0.5-1 points
Jefferson wasted no time bursting onto the scene in 2020, catching 88 balls for 1,400 yards (good for the third-highest mark of all time for a rookie). He significantly upped his production in 2021, recording the second-most receiving yards in the NFL (1,616) on 108 receptions (4th highest in 2021). Jefferson earned his stats by commanding an insane 45% target share on balls thrown to Vikings WRs (29% target share in the entire offense), even with the presence of Adam Theilen and the emerging KJ Osborn.
The change in head coach from the defensive-oriented Mike Zimmer to the former Rams OC Kevin O’Connell has generated a ton of buzz about the potential of the 2022 Vikings offense, indicating that Jefferson has potentially not yet reached his ceiling. Other comparable receivers over the past half-decade (Tyreek Hill, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins) have tended to affect the spread around 0.5-1 points when they missed time, and Jefferson should be valued as having a similar impact.