Football fans, it’s finally here! The 2021 NFL season will kick off in style on Thursday night with the defending Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in action. We’ll then get a loaded slate of Week 1 games over the weekend. Hope has been renewed, and the entire season is in front of every player, coach, and general manager. The same can be said for bettors. The preseason is great and all, but there isn’t anything like having action on games that count! Since it’s Week 1, bettors have had an entire summer to gather intel and follow storylines. As such, we’ve seen plenty of NFL betting line movement across the board.

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NFL Betting Line Movement Column Overview

The following column is written to highlight and analyze the largest line moves across the NFL betting market. We will discuss a handful of games whose spread or total has shifted from the opening number each week. In addition to looking at the move itself, we will explore the possible reasons sharp bettors used when placing wagers that ultimately moved the number. 

Understanding how the NFL betting market views a matchup is a key part of any handicapping strategy. With this in mind, readers will find a table at the end of this column that lists both the opening and current betting odds for each game on the Week 1 slate. 

Significant NFL Week 1 Line Moves | Point Spread

Cowboys at Buccaneers (TB from -6.5 to -8.5)
It’s only fitting that we kick off with the very first game of the season. The NFL betting market has backed the reigning Super Bowl champs ahead of this season’s kickoff game. The Buccaneers opened south of a touchdown as 6.5-point favorites. The move up a full two points to 8.5 is likely due to a combination of factors. One is some recency bias following Tampa Bay’s dominant Super Bowl win. The other cause comes from the Cowboys’ side: Dak Prescott’s health. While he will return under center after a gruesome ankle injury ended his 2020 campaign early, Prescott has been battling a shoulder injury throughout camp and the preseason. Given how Dallas struggled without him on offense last year, it’s no surprise that the line has shifted.

Seahawks at Colts (SEA from +3 to -3)
This cross-conference battle is one of two Week 1 games to see a massive line shift through a pick’em. After opening as three-point favorites at home, the Colts are now field-goal underdogs to the Seahawks. Of course, given Indy’s preseason injury bug, this shouldn’t come as a huge surprise. Even though quarterback Carson Wentz will be good to go, the Colts’ offensive line remains ravaged by injuries. Without what was one of the best lines in the NFL a year ago, Indy could have a tough time keeping up on the scoreboard against a talented Seattle offense.

Broncos at Giants (DEN from -1 to -3)
Although this line never moved through zero, we again see a west coast team taking money as a favorite on the road. The Broncos have been bet up from a one-point favorite to an even field goal. Bettors and analysts have offered mixed feelings about Denver’s decision to start Teddy Bridgewater over Drew Lock. While he isn’t the flashier talent, Bridgewater is probably the safer option. Add in a plethora of injuries affecting the Giants’ offensive skill positions, and perhaps this was all the market needed to back the Broncos. A star-studded defense against a turnover-prone quarterback in Daniel Jones also helps.

Packers vs. Saints (GB from +3 to -4)
Perhaps no game on the Week 1 schedule has taken as many twists and turns as this Packers-Saints showdown. In the months since New Orleans opened as a three-point favorite, the Saints named Jameis Winston their starting quarterback and lost out on what was supposed to be a true home game. Thanks to the ongoing hurricane season, this matchup has been moved to Jacksonville. Despite the Packers having a track record of struggling in the Florida humidity, the betting market has continued to support earlier shifts in their direction. Green Bay is up to a four-point favorite in what is now a neutral-site game. For those who might have bet this game before the venue change, be sure to check your book’s rules as to whether those tickets are still valid.

Jaguars at Texans
We close out the point spread portion of the Week 1 column with a game whose current spread is identical to the opening number. But while the Jaguars remain three-point road favorites against the AFC South rival Texans, developments behind the scenes are worth discussing. A couple of books have taken as much as 81% of bets and 94% of the handle on Jacksonville. Yet, despite these lopsided figures, this number actually ducked down to 2.5 earlier in the week. Although it has since trickled back up, the fact that this reverse line movement did occur may signal that Houston is a sharp play. This is far from the most exciting game on the slate, but tracking how the line shifts up to kickoff will be fascinating.

Significant NFL Week 1 Line Moves | Total

Steelers at Bills (49.5 down to 48.5)
Despite the presence of MVP candidate Josh Allen in this Steelers-Bills matchup, the NFL betting market has shaded the total down a full point from 49.5 to 48.5. Truth be told, both Pittsburgh and Buffalo bring excellent defenses to the table. With this being a rivalry game geographically, a hard-hitting defensive affair could make for a popular handicap.

Bears at Rams (44.5 up to 46.5)
Contrary to our first game, the Week 1 Sunday Night Football matchup features two teams known for playing great defense. Despite this, the over/under line has gone up a full two points from 44.5 to 46.5. There is tremendous optimism surrounding the Rams’ offense and new quarterback Matthew Stafford. Combined with the raw truth that Chicago’s defense simply isn’t that good anymore, and you have the two most likely reasons for the shift.

Week 1 NFL Betting Line Moves Table

Refer to the table below for a side-by-side comparison of the opening and current Las Vegas consensus lines for all Week 1 NFL games, including those discussed above.

Note: All current odds reflect lines at 8 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, September 8th

Matchup	Opening Lines	Current Consensus
Cowboys Buccaneers	52 -6.5	51.5 -8.5
Steelers Bills	49.5 -6	48.5 -6.5
Jets Panthers	43 -4.5	44 -5.5
Jaguars Texans	-3 45.5	-3 45
Cardinals Titans	51 -2.5	52 -3
Chargers Washington	-1.5 44.5	-1 44.5
Eagles Falcons	47 -3.5	48 -3
Seahawks Colts	52 -3	-3 50
Vikings Bengals	-3 48	-3 47.5
49ers Lions	-7 45.5	-7.5 45
Browns Chiefs	53 -6.5	54.5 -6
Dolphins Patriots	44.5 -2.5	43.5 -3
Broncos Giants	-1 42	-3 42
Packers Saints	50.5 -3	-4 50
Bears Rams	44.5 -6.5	46.5 -7.5
Ravens Raiders	-3.5 51	-4 51

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive.