NFL Betting Line Movement Analysis for Week 11 (2021)

While NFL betting underdogs may not have had quite the same outright success last Sunday as they did two weeks ago, it was yet another winning weekend for those teams catching points. Dogs managed to go 8-5 ATS in Week 10 and are covering the spread at a 57% clip on the season to date. Closing line value has been rendered obsolete on multiple occasions this season. The league’s mounting injury toll and distorted market perceptions of numerous teams are again poised to influence the NFL betting line moves and action in Week 11. 

The following article highlights some of the most significant and noteworthy NFL line moves and breaks down what might be behind each shift. As always, a table containing both the opening and current betting odds for each game on the Week 11 slate is included at the end of this column. 

Significant NFL Week 11 Line Moves | Point Spreads

Dolphins at Jets (MIA from -2.5 to -3)

Although the line move is currently only a half-point in size for Sunday’s AFC East Division clash between the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets, the key number of three sits front and center in this discussion. Not only has the NFL betting market bumped the Dolphins up to a full field goal favorite in this road game, but books heavily juiced the consensus line in their favor at the time of writing. This suggests a potential move through three to -3.5 could be on the horizon. 

Miami certainly rides momentum into this game after upsetting the Baltimore Ravens last week. Tua Tagovailoa played hero ball in jumpstarting the offense during last Thursday’s win. With a few extra days of rest on the long week, the Dolphins announced that Tagovailoa would start Sunday’s divisional matchup. Meanwhile, Jets Nation is puzzled by the announcement that veteran QB Joe Flacco will start this week over Mike White. That said, if the Dolphins’ defense plays anything like it did last week, it won’t matter who is under center for the Jets.

Cardinals at Seahawks (ARZ from +2 to -2)

Despite Colt McCoy failing miserably to replicate his Week 9 success last Sunday, the Arizona Cardinals have gone from being two-point underdogs to now laying the same number ahead of this NFC West Division matchup. One component that is undoubtedly behind the shift is the pending return of Kyler Murray at quarterback. He was officially a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice, but reports indicate that he is trending in the right direction. Star wideout DeAndre Hopkins also has a chance to return for Arizona on Sunday.

On the flip side, the Seattle Seahawks got their star QB back from injury last week. However, it was arguably the worst performance of Russell Wilson’s NFL career in a shutout loss on the road. With a 3-6 record, the Seahawks are officially in desperation mode if they hope to track down a playoff spot. While a home win over the division-leading Cardinals would be a great place to start, Wilson’s horrendous outing last week has undoubtedly played a significant part in the betting market moving against Seattle. Should this line creep closer to the key number of three, the move would be considered even more significant.

Steelers at Chargers (LAC from -3 to -6.5)

Neither the Pittsburgh Steelers nor the Los Angeles Chargers did anything to warrant a line move in their favor last week. This NFL betting market adjustment is undoubtedly linked to the clouded status of Steelers’ quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger. After he was scratched from last week’s game due to that good old virus, the Steelers had all they could do to play the winless Detroit Lions to a tie. While Justin Herbert and the Chargers have seemingly come back down to Earth after a terrific start, there’s simply no way that L.A. would lose to a Mason Rudolph-led Pittsburgh outfit.

After initial reports regarding Roethlisberger’s Week 11 status were somewhat pessimistic, that tune changed on Tuesday. Bettors are best advised to hold off until we receive official confirmation. However, if all signs point in the positive direction regarding his return, one cannot deny the current value on Pittsburgh in this spot. The Steelers probably have a better shot to win this game outright than lose by seven or more. In addition, star Chargers’ pass-rusher Joey Bosa is now on the virus list as well. The betting lines for this Sunday night matchup will undoubtedly move again once we gain further clarity.

Significant NFL Week 11 Line Moves | Totals

Packers at Vikings (50.5 down to 48.5)

The first installment of this NFC North Division rival sees both teams come in with top-12 defenses in adjusted efficiency on the year. That statistic alone is enough to justify the initial NFL betting line move that has dropped the total a full two points. From a general handicapping angle, divisional rivalry games tend to be lower scoring thanks to increased familiarity between the teams. Diving into this specific game further from the perspective of the Green Bay Packers, they now rank third in scoring defense after pitching a shutout in last week’s win over Seattle. The Pack are allowing just 18.0 points per game and have not allowed any opponent to score more than 22 in seven contests since the calendar turned to October.

Concerning the Minnesota Vikings, the defense showed up and flustered Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Hebert into making numerous mistakes last week. While the Vikings are young in the secondary, they grade out sixth in adjusted efficiency defending the pass, a mark that sits a lot better than their 28th-place ranking against the run. Seemingly every home game for Minnesota this season has been a low-scoring affair. Trusting Kirk Cousins and the offense to produce against a top-tier NFL defense has not gone well thus far. In addition, Minnesota catches a break defensively as the Packers will be without star running back Aaron Jones due to injury.

Cowboys at Chiefs (52.5 up to 56)

If last Sunday night’s beatdown of the Las Vegas Raiders was any indication, it appears that Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and the Kansas City Chiefs have rediscovered their offensive mojo. It couldn’t come at a better time with a high-profile matchup looming against Dak Prescott and the loaded Dallas Cowboys offense. While both teams have been putting together some better games defensively in recent weeks, it remains difficult to trust either defense. That sentiment is only magnified in a head-to-head matchup that also features these superbly talented offenses. Whether or not the Chiefs are fully back to their usual ways remains to be seen. One could argue that a 3.5-point line move based on one impressive performance is a slight overreaction.

Week 11 NFL Betting Line Moves Table

Refer to the table below for a side-by-side comparison of the opening and current Las Vegas consensus lines for all Week 11 NFL games, including those discussed above.

Note: All current odds reflect lines at 10 a.m. EDT on Thursday, November 18th

Matchup	Opening Lines	Current Vegas Consensus
Patriots Falcons	-4 46	-6.5 47
Lions Browns	46.5 -10	43.5 -11.5
49ers Jaguars	-5.5 47	-6.5 45.5
Colts Bills	50 -7	50 -7
Dolphins Jets	-2.5 45.5	-3 45
Washington Panthers	43 -2	43 -3.5
Ravens Bears	-6 45	-4.5 45
Saints Eagles	PICK PICK	43.5 -1.5
Texans Titans	46.5 -10	45 -10
Packers Vikings	-2 50.5	-2 48.5
Bengals Raiders	PICK PICK	-1 50
Cardinals Seahawks	50.5 -2	-2 48.5
Cowboys Chiefs	52.5 -2.5	56 -2.5
Steelers Chargers	48.5 -3	47 -6.5
Giants Buccaneers	51 -12.5	49.5 -11

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.