NFL Betting Line Movement Analysis for Week 4 (2021)

Three weeks of the NFL betting season are in the books, and underdogs continue to be the hottest thing under the sun. After a historic showing in Week 1 and another winning effort in Week 2, dogs were barking once again last weekend. An 8-6 ATS effort in Week 3 now has them sitting at 30-18 ATS overall on the season, a 64% success rate. In addition, short road dogs of six points or fewer have been particularly successful, going 14-3 ATS thus far.

The Week 4 slate of games presents several intriguing underdogs once again. While most point spreads are yet to see a significant NFL betting line move from opening numbers, a handful of totals have already fluctuated. The following highlights some of the most significant and noteworthy NFL line moves and breaks down what might be behind each shift. As always, a table containing both the opening and current betting odds for each game on the Week 4 slate is included at the end of this column.

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Significant NFL Week 4 Line Moves | Point Spreads

Lions at Bears (CHI from -6 to -3)

This NFC North matchup has seen the largest point spread move of any Week 4 game. After opening as six-point favorites, the Chicago Bears are now laying just a field goal at home against the Detroit Lions. Given how both of these teams performed last Sunday, it’s no surprise to see the Lions drawing respect from the NFL betting market. It took a record 66-yard field goal by Justin Tucker for the Baltimore Ravens to knock off Detroit last week. Meanwhile, the Bears only managed 47 total yards of offense and were thoroughly dominated by the Cleveland Browns. 

For as bad as public perception has been regarding the Lions even back before the season began, laying points with Chicago right now would call for some serious stones. It’s extremely hard to back Matt Nagy’s offense no matter who gets the start this week at quarterback. That said, Andy Dalton is probably slightly more appealing than Justin Fields based on the rookie’s Week 3 performance.

Ravens at Broncos (DEN from +1.5 to -1)

The NFL betting line movement on Sunday’s showdown between the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos is worth highlighting given that the spread has moved through a pick’em. While it isn’t the most significant given that the number has stayed south of a field goal on both sides, the fact that Denver opened as a dog and is now laying one point at home is interesting. After struggling to knock off the Lions last week, it makes sense that public perception of the Ravens might be sinking. While the Broncos have beaten up on three teams who are a combined 0-9 through three weeks, Denver certainly hasn’t done anything to diminish the confidence of bettors. The Ravens’ injury woes are likely also playing a factor in this line move.

Buccaneers at Patriots (TB from -5.5 to -6.5)

For the second straight week, we have the reigning Super Bowl champs seeing the betting market move in their favor. Last week, the shift proved to be incorrect as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were beaten handily by the Los Angeles Rams as short road favorites. This week, the Bucs will be on Sunday Night Football against the New England Patriots as Tom Brady returns to Foxborough. After opening as 5.5-point favorites, Tampa Bay is now laying just short of a full touchdown. 

This move likely has more to do with the Patriots’ Week 3 performance than it does the Bucs. New England’s offensive line has been very disappointing thus far. Rookie QB Mac Jones was intercepted three times last week as the Pats lost at home to the New Orleans Saints. Of course, the revenge factor for Brady also has many NFL betting analysts expecting the Bucs to score in bunches. 

Significant NFL Week 4 Line Moves | Totals

Titans at Jets (48.5 down to 44.5)

The over/under for Sunday’s contest between the Tennessee Titans and New York Jets has come crashing down a full four points from opening. The line currently sits at 44.5, and the move aligns perfectly with what we have seen from the Jets through three weeks of play. A horrendous offensive line and nonexistent rushing attack have heaped all kinds of pressure on rookie quarterback Zach Wilson. He has responded by throwing seven interceptions over his first three NFL games. The Jets have scored all of six points over the last two weeks. Not exactly a team that screams to bet the over.

On the flip side, the Titans are actually a team that trends more to the over on paper. The offense is supremely talented, and they still have question marks defensively. However, there is a real possibility that both of the team’s best receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, are sidelined this week with injuries. This would likely see Tennessee only lean more on Derrick Henry, thus shortening the game. Add in the fact that the Jets defense has quietly played quite well through three games and this line move is warranted. It’ll be interesting to see if and when the market buys back in the other direction.

Giants at Saints (47 down to 42)

Yet another game involving a team from the Big Apple that has seen the total come crashing down. The steam has been solely on the under for Sunday’s matchup between the winless New York Giants and New Orleans Saints. The current line of 42 is a full five points lower than the opening number. On the Giants side of things, it’s impossible to trust Daniel Jones and the offense any given week. Furthermore, the defense actually played well in a close loss to the Atlanta Falcons last week. Meanwhile, the Saints’ defense is arguably the backbone of the team this season. Despite losing several key defensive pieces from a year ago, New Orleans has held their own in both victories and has forced seven turnovers through three games. Whether this line has moved a bit too far is another story.

Steelers at Packers (48 down to 45.5)

We round out our NFL betting line movement analysis for Week 4 with another total that has taken a nosedive. Given that unders went 10-4 in Sunday games last week and are now 28-20 on the season overall, the common theme of downward moves shouldn’t come as a huge surprise. In this instance, we have a 2.5-point move for the late-afternoon matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers.

In all honesty, this move can really only be attributed to the Steelers’ half of the equation in this matchup. The front seven for Pittsburgh defensively is among the best in the league. The other key factor is the current state of the offense. The Steelers have next to no run game, and Ben Roethlisberger has had the least amount of time to stand in the pocket and throw of any quarterback through three weeks. The offensive line is an absolute disaster. Until they get things corrected, bettors can expect the Steelers to be in a lot of low-scoring battles.

Week 4 NFL Betting Line Moves Table

Refer to the table below for a side-by-side comparison of the opening and current Las Vegas consensus lines for all Week 4 NFL games including those discussed above.

Note: All current odds reflect lines at 7 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, September 29th

Matchup	Opening Lines	Current Vegas Consensus
Jaguars Bengals	46 -7.5	46 -7.5
Washington Falcons	PICK PICK	-1 48
Lions Bears	44 -6	42.5 -3
Titans Jets	-6.5 48.5	-7 44.5
Browns Vikings	-1 49	-2 51.5
Colts Dolphins	45.5 -2.5	43 -2
Panthers Cowboys	50.5 -5.5	50.5 -4.5
Giants Saints	47 -6.5	42 -7.5
Chiefs Eagles	-6.5 54.5	-7 54.5
Texans Bills	48 -16.5	47 -16.5
Cardinals Rams	52.5 -6	55 -5
Seahawks 49ers	49.5 -3.5	52.5 -3
Ravens Broncos	-1.5 45.5	45 -1
Steelers Packers	48 -6.5	45.5 -6.5
Buccaneers Patriots	-5.5 50.5	-6.5 49
Raiders Chargers	52.5 -3	52.5 -3.5

 
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive.