NFL Betting Line Movement Analysis for Week 5 (2021)

For the first time all season, NFL betting underdogs suffered a losing week against the spread in Week 4. Oddly enough, it came in the same weekend when three dogs of at least 4.5 points managed to win their respective matchups outright. Two of those teams that won outright, the New York Jets and Giants, were underdogs of more than a touchdown. While backing dogs ATS and betting totals to go under have both been profitable thus far, there have been a handful of surprising moneyline upsets each week as well. Nothing comes easy in the National Football League. Expect that sentiment to hold true in Week 5.

This week’s slate of games presents several intriguing lines once again. We have already seen plenty of movement throughout the NFL betting market on various spreads and totals. Expect more to come between now and Sunday as injury news, and player availability becomes clearer. The following article highlights some of the most significant and noteworthy NFL line moves and breaks down what might be behind each shift. As always, a table containing both the opening and current betting odds for each game on the Week 5 slate is included at the end of this column.

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Significant NFL Week 5 Line Moves | Point Spreads

Broncos at Steelers (DEN from -2 to pick ’em)

Based on the first four weeks of the season, it was no surprise to see the Denver Broncos open up as short favorites for this road game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, several NFL betting analysts have expressed some concern regarding the easy schedule the Broncos had in the first three weeks. The three teams the Broncos have beaten this season have combined to win just two games through four weeks. Week 4 saw Denver lose at home to the Baltimore Ravens. The absence of both starting guards proved costly, as Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out of the game with a concussion. 

Bridgewater has been in the league’s concussion protocol this week, and the jury is still out on whether he will be able to play against the Steelers on Sunday. Whether it is he or Drew Lock under center, the Broncos will have to contend with one of the NFL’s top defenses. Of course, Pittsburgh has lost three straight and is really in must-win mode coming into Week 5. For as bad as Ben Roethlisberger and the offense have looked, this line move likely is more about the Broncos’ injury concerns than it is a show of support for this Steelers outfit.

Giants at Cowboys (DAL from -8.5 to -7)

The marquee late afternoon game this week pits NFC East Division rivals against one another. The New York Giants pulled off a shocking overtime upset last week and will look to keep the momentum going against a Dallas Cowboys team that has won three straight. The media may like to criticize his every move, but Giants QB Daniel Jones is proving to be legit. He had over 400 yards through the air in last week’s win over the New Orleans Saints.

Both Jones and Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott have plenty of offensive weapons at their disposal. However, the Cowboys’ defense has been much sharper than the Giants so far this season. Dallas has owned this rivalry in recent years, but the games tend always to be competitive. Considering the throngs of public support on the Cowboys, this reverse line movement down on the spread is noteworthy.

49ers at Cardinals (ARZ from -2.5 to -5.5)

For the second straight week, all four NFC West teams are playing within the division. The San Francisco 49ers are facing a major question mark at quarterback after starter Jimmy Garoppolo was forced out of last week’s game with an injury. He is yet to practice as of Thursday morning but has not officially been ruled out for Sunday. If Garoppolo cannot go, rookie Trey Lance will draw the start. Despite the mobility he brings to the table, Lance is undoubtedly a slight downgrade regarding the 49ers’ power rating at this juncture. 

The Arizona Cardinals were extremely impressive in routing the Los Angeles Rams last week on the other side of the equation. The Cardinals are the only remaining unbeaten team, and Kyler Murray is the new NFL betting favorite to win the MVP award. It’s no surprise to see this game line shift in Arizona’s direction right along with the MVP futures odds.

Significant NFL Week 5 Line Moves | Totals

Titans at Jaguars (52 down to 48.5)

For the second straight week, the Tennessee Titans are involved in a game that has seen a significant line move to the under. Last week’s game would have stayed under the adjusted total if not for a fourth-quarter scoring outburst and overtime. The Titans will look to pick up the pieces after being upset by the New York Jets against another winless foe, the Jacksonville Jaguars. While it’s debatable whether the Jaguars are more competent than the Jets on offense, there is no doubt that Tennessee will be facing a weaker defensive opponent this week. The health of receivers Julio Jones and A.J. Brown has likely also factored into this shift.

Packers at Bengals (48 up to 51)

This cross-conference showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Cincinnati Bengals could very easily deliver some offensive fireworks. Defensively, the Packers leave a lot to be desired. They also may be without top cornerback Jaire Alexander due to an injury in Week 5. While the Bengals have shown a lot of improvement and grade well in adjusted defensive efficiency through their first four games, trying to slow down Aaron Rodgers is a completely different animal altogether. Rodgers and Joe Burrow both have a real chance to shine in a game with sneaky shootout potential. 

Colts at Ravens (49.5 down to 45.5)

Rounding out our Week 5 NFL betting line moves is the Monday night matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens. The total has fallen a full four points from opening. It seems reasonable to say that neither team has exactly lived up to expectations offensively through the first four weeks. The other factor to consider here is game script. Both the Colts and Ravens prefer to run the football behind their earth-moving offensive lines. More running plays will keep the clock moving and shorten the game. 

While both defenses have proven to be vulnerable against the pass, one could also argue as to whether either offense has the necessary weapons to exploit this flaw. Should bettors really trust Carson Wentz and Lamar Jackson to air it out and turn this matchup into a high-scoring affair? We could be in for some good old-fashioned smashmouth football on Monday night.

Week 5 NFL Betting Line Moves Table

Refer to the table below for a side-by-side comparison of the opening and current Las Vegas consensus lines for all Week 5 NFL games including those discussed above.

Note: All current odds reflect lines at 10 a.m. EDT on Thursday, October 7th

Matchup	Opening Lines	Current Vegas Consensus
Rams Seahawks	-1 53	-2.5 54
Jets Falcons	44 -4	46 -3
Dolphins Buccaneers	49.5 -9.5	48 -10
Eagles Panthers	46.5 -4	45 -3
Saints Washington	-1 43	-2 43.5
Titans Jaguars	-7.5 52	-4 48.5
Lions Vikings	49.5 -8	49 -9.5
Broncos Steelers	-2 41.5	PICK PICK
Packers Bengals	-3 48	-3 51
Patriots Texans	-7.5 41.5	-9 39.5
Bears Raiders	45 -7	44.5 -5.5
Browns Chargers	PICK PICK	47 -1.5
Giants Cowboys	49.5 -8.5	52 -7
49ers Cardinals	52.5 -2.5	50 -5.5
Bills Chiefs	56.5 -4	57 -2.5
Colts Ravens	49.5 -6.5	45.5 -7

 
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.