NFL Betting Line Movement Analysis for Week 8 (2021)

It was yet another rough NFL betting weekend for Sportsbooks in Week 7. For the third straight week, favorites dominated the action, and bettors were big winners along with them. Some bookmakers in Las Vegas are calling these last three weeks unprecedented. Rare is the occasion that the house is such a hefty loser three NFL Sundays in a row. Will that streak run to four in Week 8? There has been plenty of betting action, as well as several notable line moves throughout the week thus far. We’ve certainly got plenty to break down and diagnose in this week’s column.

The following article highlights some of the most significant and noteworthy NFL line moves and breaks down what might be behind each shift. As always, a table containing both the opening and current betting odds for each game on the Week 8 slate is included at the end of this column. 

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Significant NFL Week 8 Line Moves | Point Spreads

Dolphins at Bills (BUF from -11.5 up to -14)

Rare is the occasion that we see a two-touchdown spread for a matchup between divisional rivals. Yet, that is precisely what we find after the line move for Sunday’s AFC East battle between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. One could argue that this move might be more a reaction to what the Dolphins are not this season than what the Bills are. Miami dropped their sixth consecutive decision last week. The defense is a shell of itself from a year ago. Many NFL betting analysts pointed to Miami’s fortunate turnover margin as a primary reason this year’s Dolphins would regress. That has been precisely the case. 

While Tua Tagovailoa did his best to keep Miami in it last week by throwing four TD passes, he’ll be lucky to get more than one against the stout Bills’ defense. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Buffalo emerge from their bye week and lay it on thick against a hated rival.

Bengals at Jets (CIN from -3.5 up to -10.5)

This seven-point line move marks the biggest shift of the Week 8 NFL betting slate. Fresh off an impressive upset win over a divisional foe last Sunday, the Cincinnati Bengals are now laying double-digits at the Meadowlands this week. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have been a thing of beauty through the first seven weeks. The former LSU teammates don’t appear to have missed a beat after being reunited in the pros. Cincinnati’s defense has also drastically exceeded expectations.

While the Bengals bandwagon continues to grow, this line move has just as much to do with the situation facing one-win New York Jets on Sunday. After losing rookie QB Zach Wilson to an injury last week, the Jets will be sending little-known Mike White out for his first career start. The former fifth-round draft pick out of Western Kentucky certainly lowers the appeal of New York in the eyes of bettors. 

Giants at Chiefs (KC from -13 down to -10)

Oddly enough, all three of this week’s significant ATS moves feature games with double-digit spreads. After opening as 13-point favorites for their Monday night home game against the New York Giants, the Kansas City Chiefs are now laying just 10. Recency bias for both teams certainly plays a part in this adjustment. The Giants went out and took it to the Carolina Panthers last Sunday as home dogs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs had their doors blown off by the Tennessee Titans as short road favorites. 

Will Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have the cure for what ails the struggling K.C. offense on Monday night? Possibly, but trusting the Chiefs’ defense to generate stops is also difficult to do at this juncture. Assuming Daniel Jones has at least a couple of his top offensive weapons back from injury, the Giants should be able to score some points. The keyword being ‘should.’ 

Significant NFL Week 8 Line Moves | Totals

49ers at Bears (43 down to 39.5)

A week ago, after each team lost in lopsided fashion, the San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears will be vying to get back on track this Sunday. The over/under for this NFC battle has plummeted down by three and a half points from opening. From the Chicago side of things, the line move is pretty self-explanatory. Rookie QB Justin Fields is nowhere near being NFL-ready. Yet, the Bears continue to trot him out there as their starter. On the other hand, rookie running back Khalil Herbert has played exceptionally well in relief of the injured David Montgomery.

The 49ers have also struggled mightily after a 2-0 start regardless of whether veteran Jimmy Garoppolo or rookie Trey Lance has been under center. The former will start once again for San Fran on Sunday. Expect a lot of running from both sides. Such a game script will help speed up the game and further benefit this move to the under.

Cowboys at Vikings (51.5 up to 55)

The NFL betting market expects points in this week’s Sunday Night Football showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings. Based on the numbers alone, this is a peculiar line move. After all, both teams boast top-10 defensive efficiency rankings. That being said, each has the offensive personnel to capitalize in this matchup potentially. For the Cowboys, that would be the backfield tandem of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. The two have done damage every week and should both produce again on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Vikings have been explosive through the air in almost every game so far. With Dalvin Cook back and healthy, Minnesota’s offensive attack is truly two-fold. 

Outside of their season-opening loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Cowboys have yet to face an opponent with an offensive as capable as the Vikings. Of course, the defenses for both sides could surprise some people on Sunday night, but it’s hard to bet against these star-studded offenses coming off of a bye week.

Week 8 NFL Betting Line Moves Table

Refer to the table below for a side-by-side comparison of the opening and current Las Vegas consensus lines for all Week 8 NFL games, including those discussed above.

Note: All current odds reflect lines at 3 p.m. EDT on Thursday, October 28th

Matchup	Opening Lines	Current Vegas Consensus
Packers Cardinals	52.5 -3.5	50.5 -6.5
Dolphins Bills	49 -11.5	48.5 -14
Panthers Falcons	48 -2.5	46 -3
Eagles Lions	-3.5 49.5	-3.5 48
Titans Colts	49 -2.5	50.5 -1.5
Rams Texans	-14 45.5	-14.5 47.5
Bengals Jets	-3.5 45	-10.5 43
Steelers Browns	45 -2.5	42.5 -3.5
49ers Bears	-3.5 43	-4 39.5
Jaguars Seahawks	43.5 -3	44.5 -3
Patriots Chargers	47.5 -5.5	49 -5
Washington Broncos	44.5 -4	44 -3
Buccaneers Saints	-4 50	-5.5 50
Cowboys Vikings	-2.5 51.5	-1.5 55
Giants Chiefs	54 -13	52 -10

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.