NFL Betting Line Movement Analysis for Week 9 (2021)

After a solid three-week run for NFL betting favorites, last Sunday saw the pendulum swing sharply back in the other direction. Sportsbooks cleaned up shop over the public bettors last week as a whopping seven underdogs not only covered the spread but won their respective games outright. From Mike White and the New York Jets to Trevor Siemian and the New Orleans Saints, it was a week filled with surprises and upsets. While it’ll be tough to have the same volume of outright underdog victories in Week 9, it seems wise to expect more chaos. Bombshell news reports, key injury updates, and shifting public perceptions have all been driving factors behind various Week 9 NFL betting line moves that have already taken place.

The following article highlights some of the most significant and noteworthy NFL line moves and breaks down what might be behind each shift. As always, a table containing both the opening and current betting odds for each game on the Week 9 slate is included at the end of this column. 

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Significant NFL Week 9 Line Moves | Point Spreads

Texans at Dolphins (MIA from -7 to -5.5)

Sunday’s matchup between the Houston Texans and Miami Dolphins comes nowhere close to being the “marquee” NFL betting game on the Week 9 slate. However, this game has already seen a significant line move, and there very well could be more coming before kickoff. On Thursday, Houston coach David Culley announced that Tyrod Taylor would be activated off IR and start Sunday’s game. Before Taylor’s injury, the Texans were averaging over six yards per play offensively. They beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in the season-opener and led the Cleveland Browns at halftime in Week 2. However, we haven’t seen Taylor on the field since the first half of that eventual loss to Cleveland ended. 

He comes back at a reasonable time against a Dolphins outfit that has not won a game since Week 1. With Taylor under center as opposed to Davis Mills, the Texans have a legitimate chance to not only cover this spread but win the game outright. Unfortunately, the NFL betting market reacted to the update on Taylor’s status by shifting the spread down from a full touchdown to favoring the Dolphins by 5.5. That still feels way too high for this fairly even matchup between AFC bottom-feeders.

Broncos at Cowboys (DAL from -7.5 to -10)

The NFL betting public is in love with the Dallas Cowboys after they toppled the Minnesota Vikings with backup quarterback Cooper Rush at the controls last week. All signs point to Dak Prescott being back under center for Dallas this week. As a result, they were confirmed as big favorites against a struggling Denver Broncos team. The market took the opening line of Cowboys -7.5 up to double-digits earlier in the week. 

Although the Broncos snapped a four-game losing streak last week, it was hardly a pretty effort at home. Denver also traded away cornerstone linebacker Von Miller at the deadline earlier this week. In addition, the Broncos’ defense was drastically overrated coming into the year. As it stands now, they rank just 25th in adjusted efficiency and figure to have a tough time containing the bevy of Dallas weapons on Sunday.

Packers at Chiefs (KC from -2.5 to -7)

This week, the real bombshell news report in the NFL betting world was that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers would not be available for Sunday’s highly-anticipated showdown against the Kansas City Chiefs. As a result, a betting line that was trending towards pick’em following another disappointing performance by the Chiefs last week was adjusted to a full touchdown. This game will now serve as Jordan Love’s first career start. Oddsmakers are not expecting much out of the 2020 first-round draft pick. For as much as the Chiefs have struggled relative to preseason expectations, Patrick Mahomes and Co. appear poised to roll to a comfortable victory in Week 9.

Significant NFL Week 8 Line Moves | Totals

Patriots at Panthers (44.5 down to 41.5)

One of the NFL betting underdogs who sprung an upset last week was the New England Patriots. They will be on the road again this Sunday to face a Carolina Panthers team without starting quarterback Sam Darnold. The feel-good start to the year in Charlotte has come to a screeching halt in recent weeks. Although the Panthers snapped a four-game slide last week, it wasn’t exactly thanks to the offense. Darnold got crushed trying to run for a touchdown late and has only been a limited participant in practice this week.

If Darnold is indeed ruled out, former XFL standout P.J. Walker will start for the Panthers. Either way, it will be a difficult task trying to solve the defensive scheming of Bill Belichick. At the same time, New England has been establishing its offensive identity in recent weeks. Damien Harris led a pounding effort against the Los Angeles Chargers last week. So the Patriots might very well be able to run it down Carolina’s throats as well. The Panthers rank just 19th in adjusted run defense. So it’s hard to envision both teams scoring 20 points in this one.

Falcons at Saints (45.5 down to 42.5)

Injuries and the absence of key players have also impacted the NFL betting total in Sunday’s NFC South clash between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. While the Saints lost quarterback Jameis Winston for the year last week, Atlanta also lost top wideout Calvin Ridley, who is stepping away for personal reasons. Expecting Trevor Siemian to replicate last week’s heroics might not be wise for bettors. In addition, the Saints’ defense is arguably the best in the league through the first eight weeks. Both offenses could be facing an uphill trek in this one. 

Along with the personnel factors, trends also lean towards a defensive-minded affair on Sunday. Recent head-to-head meetings between these division rivals have been low-scoring. Both of last year’s matchups stayed under 40 total points.

Check out all of our NFL game previews and picks for the week >>

Week 9 NFL Betting Line Moves Table

Refer to the table below for a side-by-side comparison of the opening and current Las Vegas consensus lines for all Week 9 NFL games, including those discussed above.

Note: All current odds reflect lines at 3 p.m. EDT on Thursday, November 4th

Matchup	Opening Lines	Current Vegas Consensus
Jets Colts	44 -14.5	45.5 -10
Texans Dolphins	45.5 -7	46.5 -5.5
Broncos Cowboys	49 -7.5	49.5 -10
Vikings Ravens	49.5 -6	49.5 -6
Patriots Panthers	-2.5 44.5	-3.5 41.5
Bills Jaguars	-10.5 49.5	-14.5 48.5
Browns Bengals	45 -3	47 -2.5
Raiders Giants	-2.5 47.5	-3 46.5
Falcons Saints	45.5 -5.5	42.5 -6.5
Chargers Eagles	-3 50	-1.5 50
Packers Chiefs	53.5 -2.5	48 -7
Cardinals 49ers	-3 47	PICK PICK
Titans Rams	52 -4	53.5 -7.5
Bears Steelers	40.5 -5	40 -6.5

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.