NFL Betting: What We Learned from Week 1 (2021)

Arguably the most important element of picking football games — especially against-the-spread — is avoiding overreaction. That doesn’t mean we should ignore it, though.

Identifying overreaction is key. No week provides more of it than Week 1.

As we go through what we learned over our first full Sunday of NFL action, remember that people are going to erase an entire offseason worth of preparation with sixty minutes of results.

Let’s use that to our advantage.

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Rookie Quarterbacks Couldn’t Find Wins on Opening Day

The rookie class is widely considered one of the best for quarterbacks in recent memory. Week 1 did not further that narrative. At least not in the win column.

All five of the rookie first-round quarterbacks selected in last year’s NFL Draft saw the field in one capacity or another in Week 1, but four of them were on the losing side of the equation. In fairness, each one had at least one reasonable excuse.

• Trevor Lawrence’s Jaguars lost handily, and he threw three interceptions in the process, but he also found the endzone three times and passed for 332 yards.
• Zach Wilson’s Jets also lost, and he was a complete non-factor in the first half — 6-for-16 for 84 yards and an interception. His bright spot? The second half, in which he threw 21 times for 174 yards and two touchdowns.
• Mac Jones’ Patriots lost, although he was exactly what was expected after winning the team’s starting quarterback job in the preseason. He completed just under 75 percent of his passes and finished with 281 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions.
• Justin Fields’ Bears lost, but he shoulders the least of the blame. Fields played five snaps, completed both of his pass attempts, and rushed for a touchdown. Don’t be fooled by the numbers, as his limited action inflates them. Still, he wasn’t part of the problem.
• Finally, Trey Lance’s 49ers served as the only winning team in the group. Unfortunately, for the sake of rookie quarterbacks, he was on the field for the fewest amount of snaps — four. He did complete a touchdown pass in his only attempt of the game, though.

The best way to use this to our advantage is to expect some success from these quarterbacks soon. None were outright disasters for four quarters — out of those who played four quarters — with Jones and Lawrence — probably in that order — offering the best opportunity for wins.

Tennessee’s Pass Defense is Nonexistent

The Tennessee Titans finished last year ranked second-worst in passing touchdowns allowed. Surely, that wouldn’t happen again, right?

Wrong. At least, wrong for one week.

Tennessee was absolutely dominated through the air by the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1 — 280 yards and four touchdowns — but we do have to ask ourselves if this pathetic showing was more from Arizona’s offense or Tennessee’s defense. Ignoring the possibility of both — because, of course, both contributed — the Titans’ recent history should cause concern for the organization. This will absolutely be a situation to monitor, especially since the Titans will face the Seahawks and quarterback Russell Wilson in Week 2.

I’m expecting teams to continue to feast on the Titans’ pass defense until they prove otherwise.

New Orleans has Life After Brees

If we’ve learned anything over the past few years, it is that New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton knows how to win games without quarterback Drew Brees. Still, despite his success, the return of Brees always loomed in the background.

Not anymore.

New Orleans looked flawless on Sunday, including via the passing game. Granted, quarterback Jameis Winston didn’t accumulate a tremendous amount of yards — he didn’t have to — but he did throw a whopping five touchdown passes.

We still have sixteen more regular-season games ahead of us — a full season by last year’s standards — and the Saints will undoubtedly be tested their long-term viability, but the early signs are positive. The team sent a message that it isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

Message received.

Just remember that others also heard it loud-and-clear, and there will probably be some inflated hype because of it.

No Offense in AFC East

Division-wide trends present an odd image since, at one point, each of the teams will play against the others. That happened on Sunday, but it actually didn’t erase the main takeaway.

There was no offense to be found in the AFC East in Week 1.

Of the four teams, the only to win — the Miami Dolphins — was in a shared game against another division-mate — the New England Patriots. All four teams, regardless of opponent, struggled to put points on the board.

Some of this was to be expected. The Jets and Patriots trotted out rookie quarterbacks, while New England and Pittsburgh — the Dolphins’ and Bills’ opponents, respectively — are known to have solid defenses. In the end, at least one team could have broken through and established offense.

None did.

New York scored 14 points, New England and Buffalo each reached 16, while Miami won the day with only 17 points to show for it. That’s a combined 63 points for four teams.

The Texans and Lions combined for 70.

I’m not sure which of the teams will explode, but at least one will. Be ready for it.

The NFC West is Already the Best Division in Football

Entering the season, the NFC West was a powerhouse. It was arguably the best, most complete division in football. One week into the season, the early claims were right.

In addition to three-of-the-four teams playing on the road, all four NFC West teams won and did so in relatively impressive fashion. The closest victory was eight points, and that game was out-of-hand so early that it only became close because of late, “garbage-time” efforts.

Here are the final scores:

• Seattle won 28-16 in Indianapolis
• San Francisco won 41-33 in Detroit
• Arizona won 38-13 in Tennessee
• Los Angeles won 34-14 at home against Chicago

The best part? All four teams will play non-division games in Week 2, which means we could see this NFC West dominance continue for at least another week with a potential 8-0 record. It’s unlikely — and the best way to play this is to expect some regression — but know that it’s possible and that continued success in such a definitive manner will only strengthen the eventual regression.

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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola. He has also been one of the industry leaders in NFL against-the-spread picks over the last 7 years.