NFL Betting: What We Learned From Week 3 (2020)
Week 3 is almost in the books, and it was our first wild Sunday. We had a number of games go down to the wire with plenty of drama. Taking a look at things from a betting perspective, here’s what we learned from Week 3.
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Raiders Are Still Limited
A lot of people got excited cashing bets with the Raiders last week on Monday Night Football, but buyer beware: this is still a limited team. They are probably in that 8-8 range where they can beat the bad teams and compete with the good ones when everything goes right. However, we saw on Sunday that you really have to pick your spots betting on them.
The Raiders were forced to play from behind on Sunday, and the New England Patriots made sure that anyone but Darren Waller beat them. Waller had two catches for nine yards.
The Raiders just don’t have enough reliable weapons in the passing game outside of Waller to be able to come from behind. Derek Carr was still effective — he went 24-of-32 for 261 yards and a pair of touchdowns — but it’s clear that this team has a ceiling with him. They are 2-1, and there is plenty of optimism given the pieces on this young roster, but I’d be surprised if they are 8-8 or better at the end of the year. With Buffalo, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay on the schedule in their next three games, I’d likely be betting against them.
Rams Are For Real
The NFC West is a division in flux, and the Los Angeles Rams might be the best team in it. Yes, that might be surprising to hear when Russell Wilson is playing out of his mind, and the Seahawks are 3-0. However, keep in mind that the Seahawks’ defense ranks dead last in the NFL in yards allowed per game. They gave up 522 yards to Dallas on Sunday.
Regardless, the Rams have proven that they are again a contender as Jared Goff has regained his swagger. He had 321 yards, two touchdowns, and a pick on Sunday as he helped the Rams dig out of a 28-3 hole at Buffalo. Sure, they eventually lost, but the fact that they got back in the game is a testament to the quality of this team.
In the long run, I don’t expect them to make a serious Super Bowl run, but they’re rock-solid on both sides of the ball, are well-coached, and are once again very effective on offense. With games against the New York Giants, Washington Football Team, a banged-up San Francisco 49ers, the Chicago Bears, and the Miami Dolphins in their next five games, they could and should be 5-3 or 6-2 at the halfway point of the season.
Daniel Jones Might Be The Worst Quarterback In New York
There was a lot of critical talk of New York Jets starter Sam Darnold, as he threw two-pick sixes on Sunday and was again seeing ghosts. However, it’s time to take a good, long look at Daniel Jones of the New York Giants and realize that he simply isn’t the man who will lead the Giants back to respectability. As a matter of fact, I’m not sure if Jones is even better than the much-maligned Darnold. At least with Darnold, one could say is that he’s missing a ton of members of his supporting cast, which wasn’t even that good to begin with. For Jones, he has a slightly better cast but has consistently failed to look the part.
On Sunday, against a banged-up San Francisco 49ers defense, Jones went 17-of-32 for 179 yards, and he turned the ball over twice. The turnovers are just non-stop with him, as he’s always either coughing up the ball or throwing picks — usually about two turnovers per game.
As for the Giants defense, they let backup Nick Mullens go 25-of-36 for 343 yards and a touchdown on Sunday. The Giants are a definite fade going forward on the spread (and consider going under their team totals, too).
Houston Is Broken
The Texans have started the season out 0-3, and while the schedule is partially to blame, getting spanked by three teams they could possibly face in the playoffs is a really bad sign.
The Texans have flaws all over the place. In terms of coaching, they can’t make adjustments. They scored 21 points in the first half at Pittsburgh on Sunday and then were blanked n the second half. They only had six points after the half last week. Overall, their offense just isn’t great, as they’ve now scored 20, 16, and 21 points in each of their three games. Meanwhile, their defense has allowed at least 28 each and every week.
Not all is lost with them, and they might be a good bet with the soft schedule coming up (Minnesota and Jacksonville) in the next two weeks, but overall, this is about an 8-8 team. They’re not that good.
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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.