NFL Betting: What We Learned From Week 6 (2020)
Week 6 of the NFL is almost through but we will have a couple more games on Monday night. Taking a look back to Sunday’s action, let’s see what we learned from this week’s array of games and results.
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Bucs Have A Defense
Much of the offseason news surrounding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was focused on the offensive side of the ball. However, it looks like the defense is where the team has seen significant improvements. On Sunday, they held the red-hot Aaron Rodgers to just 16-of-35 for 160 yards, no touchdowns, and his first two interceptions on the season. They lived in the Packers backfield, compiling five sacks and six tackles for a loss. Entering the week, the Bucs had the second-ranked defense in terms of yards per game and were eighth in terms of points. Do they have the best defense in the NFC? It’s early but they just might.
Consider under’s with this team as many assume easy overs given the offense. This defense is stout and under’s are offering value right now.
Patriots Offense, Newton Just Aren’t Good Enough
There was a lot of hype about Cam Newton after the first couple of games of the season but the reality is this: this offense and Newton just aren’t good enough. It’s hard to blame Newton for everything because he is working with next to nothing. The offensive line is banged up, there are no reliable receivers or tight ends other than Julian Edelman, and who knows what the running game gives him week-to-week. At the same time, Newton himself isn’t good enough. He entered the week with the 27th-best QBR and threw two more picks on Sunday. He has now passed for 162 yards or less in three of his four starts. He is doing all he can but it’s still not good enough. The Pats are barely a playoff-caliber team at this point.
Foles Does Enough For The Bears
There’s been a lot of conjecture that Foles doesn’t exactly deliver much better statistics than Mitchell Trubisky. The analytics guys point to Foles having all sorts of wild outcomes, that some games he’s great and some games he’s not so hot. His QBR was 55.5 entering the week and he’s had games where his QBR is low 30’s and as high as upper 70’s. However, one area where he really helps the Bears is with third down conversions. The Bears were 25th in the category last season, converting 35.7% of their third downs. Under Foles, that’s improved slightly to 37% but you can see the difference as the team is doing a better job of extending drives. With the defense that they have, maybe that’s all it takes. I’m still quite skeptical of their long-term prospects but when you consider that they are at least competent with Foles under center, this team can compete for a playoff spot in the NFC.
Browns Success Contingent On The Ground Game
The Browns disappointed a lot of people on Sunday. It’s not just that they lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers but it’s in the manner that it happened. They were absolutely flattened, trailing 24-0 before halftime. Baker Mayfield came in with a rib injury but he finished the day going 10-of-18 for 119 yards, a touchdown, and two picks. Sure, the Steelers have a good defense but Carson Wentz and a banged-up Philadelphia Eagles offense moved the ball well against this team last week.
For me, the Browns are still a pretty good team. They’re not the Browns of old. However, this team’s success is contingent on running the ball. They came into the week leading the NFL in rushing yards per game (188.4) and they were not able to get anything done on Sunday (75 yards on 22 carries). Mayfield can be forgiven for a bad game here and there – he’s decent – but he looks like a guy who needs the running game to be strong to work off of that. When the Browns are forced to win through the air, he just isn’t consistent enough. That limits the Browns ceiling, in my view. They’re still a strong team but I’m not onboard for any futures with them because their offense is contingent on a ground game success. The better teams will be able to cut that off.
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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.