NFL Betting: What We Learned from Week 7 (2021)

Each week, the key is to find a few takeaways from the action we just watched. Of course, with enough games on the schedule, that usually isn’t a problem. For Week 7, however, an odd trend kept emerging: it was almost identical to Week 6.

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The schedule of Week 6 was the lightest to date. Until Week 7.

Teams continued along their paths or made “statement wins” last week. The same was true on Sunday.

For nearly every bullet point of this article, I found myself referencing the exact structure of last week.

That’s not a problem. It means that whatever patterns or regressions appeared in the works one week ago are still showing value. It’s our job to recognize them.

The Green Bay Packers Still Can’t Be Stopped.

I highlighted the Green Bay Packers’ dominance in last week’s column, but it is worth repeating here. The Packers have now won six consecutive contests, and four of them were by double-digit margins-of-victory.

Why repeat it? Because the Packers are also reaching dangerous, overextended territory.

Green Bay has trips to Arizona and Kansas City in the next two weeks, but, right now, nothing has stopped the Packers. If we do need to nitpick, though, we can recognize that they have been slowed.

Despite the 6-1 record, the Packers’ offensive output has been nothing more than average. The team entered Week 6 ranked 24th in yards-per-game and then barely cracked 300 yards against Washington. So if Green Bay were to lose, it likely happens when the offensive efficiency regresses to the mean.

And the Kansas City Chiefs are Finished… Again.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the Kansas City Chiefs still sitting as an undervalued club worth “buying” amid the football-watching world questioning them. Exactly one week ago, I wrote about those same Chiefs proving that they were back. I now sit at the same keyboard for yet another week in yet another changing of the perception and will report that, once again, Kansas City is trending down.

It’s not true. Not entirely anyway.

Indeed, if quarterback Patrick Mahomes is going to miss any time due to injury, we can start to view the Chiefs differently. Otherwise, it’s wise to remember that this is still a long season and Kansas City’s four losses were against the Ravens, Chargers, Bills, and Titans. Those four teams have a combined 18-8 record.

If we are fair to the flaws, then the Chiefs’ defense is such a problem that we should take caution when targeting Kansas City. If an opponent has a pulse on offense, it should have some success. While we can expect the offense to get back on track, it is possible that the defense doesn’t find its rhythm for a long time.

The Carolina Panthers are Desperate.

Seven weeks into the season, the Carolina Panthers have already had two streaks of at least three games: a three-game winning streak and, now, a four-game losing streak. The latter has pushed the organization to the brink of desperation.

Already, Carolina has pulled off two trades in-season for defensive backs C.J. Henderson and Stephon Gilmore, but the latest loss now has the team in the market for a quarterback. Starter Sam Darnold was benched toward the end of Sunday’s games, and there are rumors that the franchise is looking to bring in Deshaun Watson through another trade.

In this case, it’s not reasonable to speculate how practical or possible the trade is. However, the takeaway from this new installment is that Carolina remains in “win-now” mode despite the losing streak. The Panthers are still a team to watch closely, and we should prepare to buy again soon.

The Atlanta Falcons are .500.

Don’t look now, but the Atlanta Falcons are winning football games! I know it seems impossible that the team completes games with a higher score than its opponents, but that’s what happened twice in the last two contests and three times since Week 3.

Are the Falcons good? That’s a little less clear.

Atlanta has squeezed out wins against some of the league’s worst teams, and not a single one has been impressive. In fact, despite the 3-3 record, Atlanta has a point differential of minus-41! So if that’s the metric, then no, the Falcons are not good.

But they might be in the coming weeks.

Atlanta has improved and found an offensive game plan that is working. It also has a reasonable matchup on deck against the reeling, as mentioned earlier, Panthers. So it might be time to look favorably on the Falcons.

The Cincinnati Bengals Win Their Statement Game.

It was the perfect setup, and it played out exactly as it should have. First, the Ravens won a statement game in Week 6, they were featured in this column for doing so, and then the Bengals went into Baltimore and took care of business. It was impressive, eye-opening, and systematic.

It was also essential for the perception of the team.

Earlier in the year, the Bengals were underdogs in Pittsburgh. Cincinnati won.

Then, the Bengals were underdogs at home against Green Bay. Cincinnati lost in overtime.

Finally, the Bengals were underdogs in Baltimore. Cincinnati won.

As far as anyone can tell, the questions have been answered. The Bengals are good, quarterback Joe Burrow is healthy and winning games, and the team is destined for a great future.

Maybe, but it’s also possible that this is the exact wrong time to jump on board the bandwagon — again, look at what happened to the Ravens after last week’s big win. The National Football League is all about timing and, while the Bengals certainly are good, they are also constantly undervalued at the wrong time. Unfortunately, that won’t be the case anymore.

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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola. He has also been one of the industry leaders in NFL against-the-spread picks over the last 7 years.