NFL Black Friday Touchdown Scorers: Bears vs. Eagles (Week 13)
Week 13 of the NFL season is here, and we have a Black Friday game on tap between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Chicago Bears. Heading into this game, both teams are 8-3 and lead their respective divisions.
The Bears have won four straight games, beating the Cincinnati Bengals, New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers. All of those were one-score victories. In fact, of their eight wins, six have been by one score.
As for the Eagles, it’s been a tough few weeks for them. Sure, they beat the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions, but they scored a combined 26 points. Then, last week, they lost to the Dallas Cowboys, blowing a 21-0 lead.
Below are the three best bets for first and anytime touchdown scorers.
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NFL Black Friday Touchdown Scorers: Bears vs. Eagles
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated
Saquon Barkley First Touchdown Scorer (+500)
Heading into this week, Saquon Barkley has been given 81.9% of the Eagles’ running back carries. It’s no surprise that he’s a massive part of this offense, but in addition to that 81.9% share, the Eagles run the ball on 48.06% of their plays, which is the third-highest rate in the NFL.
The Bears are allowing 21.45 carries for 108.18 yards (5.04 yards per carry) and 0.64 rushing touchdowns per game. In the passing game, they’re allowing an average of 5.36 targets, 4.27 receptions, 29.82 yards and 0.27 receiving touchdowns per game. They’ve also allowed a rushing touchdown in back-to-back games.
That 5.04 yards per carry average is the fourth-highest in the NFL.
The Eagles’ passing game looked better last week, but that was against the Cowboys, who have one of the worst defenses in football.
Of all the players on this slate, I’d trust Barkley to be the one to score first.
A.J. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)
A.J. Brown hasn’t been thrilled with his role on the Eagles as of late, but last week, he caught eight passes for 110 yards and a touchdown. That was his best stat line since October 19th, when he caught four passes for 121 yards and two touchdowns.
Brown has been getting work, and he should continue to see targets versus the Bears.
The Bears mostly play Cover 2 and Cover 3. Over the last three weeks, Brown has led the Eagles in target share against these coverages (33.3%), catching 12 out of 15 targets for 135 yards and a touchdown.
Further, the Bears allow 1.27 touchdowns per game to wide receivers, the third-most in the league.
I expect Brown to keep getting looks.
Colston Loveland Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+400)
Colston Loveland has come on as a bigger part of the Bears’ offense, catching three touchdowns over his last four games, including one last week.
This season, against Cover 3 and Cover 6 - the two coverages the Eagles play the most - Loveland has a 14.3% target share, which ranks fourth on the team. The player with the highest target share, Rome Odunze, is at 19.6%. Two of Loveland’s three touchdowns have come against these coverages.
The Eagles don’t allow many touchdowns to tight ends, but they allowed one last week to Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson.
Given the +400 odds, this is a more than reasonable wager to make.