NFL Championship Sunday Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions (2025)

With only three games left in the NFL season, betting opportunities are dwindling. Carpe diem!

Before we get to this week’s selections, a quick recap of the divisional round ...

The wins: John Metchie under 36.5 receiving yards

The losses: Patrick Mahomes over 250.5 passing yards, C.J. Stroud under 230.5 passing yards, Derrick Henry over 99.5 rushing yards, Dyami Brown under 35.5 receiving yards, Cooper Kupp under 42.5 receiving yards

Fitz’s Favorite NFL Championship Sunday Prop Bets

• Last week: 1-5
• Season record: 94-95

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday, Jan. 23.

Patrick Mahomes UNDER 251.5 passing yards

Betting against Patrick Mahones in the playoffs isn't comfortable. But let's be honest: We haven't gotten vintage Mahomes this season.

Mahomes has averaged 288.9 passing yards in regular-season games over his eight-year career but averaged a career-low 245.5 passing yards per game this season. His 6.8 yards per pass attempt were also a career low.

Mahomes began his postseason by throwing for 177 yards at home against the Texans. He's thrown for fewer than 251.5 yards in three of his last five games.

Mahomes will be facing a Bills defense that held him to 196 passing yards and 5.9 yards per pass attempt when Buffalo beat Kansas City 30-21 in Week 11. Mahomes has taken a career-high 36 sacks in the regular season behind a retooled offensive line, and the Bills had the league's 10th-highest pressure rate this season.

Historically, Mahomes has been a monster in the postseason. But again, we haven't seen a lot of vintage Patrick Mahomes this season. I think the under is a sound percentage play here.

Jalen Hurts OVER 32.5 rushing yards

Hurts has topped this number in five straight games and 10 of his last 11. In the one week where he missed, he finished just short of this number with 29 rushing yards. Hurts has averaged 50.2 rushing yards over his last five contests.

The Eagles are a ridiculously run-heavy team these days. Hurts has thrown 22 or fewer passes in six of his last seven games. It's primarily Saquon Barkley carrying the mail for Philadelphia, but Hurts has averaged 9.6 rushing attempts per game this season, playoffs included.

In two previous games against Washington this season, Hurts had 10 carries for 39 yards, and then, in a contest where he played only 12 snaps before being sidelined with a concussion, three carries for 41 yards. I think Hurts goes over this total vs. the Commanders.

Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 36.5 rushing yards

The BettingPros Player Prop Cheat Sheet is with me on this one, projecting Robinson for 44.7 rushing yards and giving this bet a 59.7% cover probability.

Robinson had 15 carries for 77 yards last week in the Commanders' upset of the Lions. Since the start of December, Robinson has had double-digit carries in 6-of-7 games, averaging 12.9 carries and 50.7 rushing yards per contest over that span.

After losing run-stuffing LB Nakobe Dean to a season-ending knee injury in their playoff opener against the Packers, the Eagles gave up 106 rushing yards to the Rams' Kyren Williams last week on 19 carries.

Although QB Jayden Daniels is on a heater, Commanders’ offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury will probably strive for offensive balance in this game rather than letting his rookie QB air it out against an Eagles pass defense that allowed a league-low 6.0 yards per pass attempt and ranked second in DVOA against the pass.

Terry McLaurin UNDER 65.5 receiving yards

McLaurin caught 4-of-6 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown against the Lions last week, but most of that yardage came on a 58-yard catch-and-run TD.

The matchup is why the under on McLaurin's receiving yardage is so appealing.

When McLaurin faced the Eagles in Week 11, he was held to one catch for 10 yards. He ran the vast majority of his routes against one of Philadelphia's excellent rookie cornerbacks, Quinyon Mitchell, and wasn't even targeted on any of the plays where Mitchell was his closest defender, according to Next Gen Stats. In a second meeting with the Eagles in Week 16, McLaurin moved around a bit more often but still ran a majority of his routes against Mitchell, finishing with 5-of-6 targets for 60 yards. Since Week 10, Mitchell is giving up just 18.4 yards per game on throws into his coverage, per PFF.

It’s hard to see McLaurin having a big game against one of the NFL's best young cover men and one of the league's best overall pass defenses.