NFL Christmas Day First & Anytime TD Scorer Picks (Week 17)
What looked like a potentially really fun slate of NFL Christmas Day games has certainly lost some luster, as all three games currently have a spread of a touchdown or greater due to quarterback injuries. Veteran quarterback Josh Johnson is set to start for the Commanders, rookie signal-caller Max Brosmer will make his second start for the Vikings and former seventh-round pick Chris Oladokun will start under center for the Chiefs after their Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew suffered devastating season-ending knee injuries in back-to-back weeks.
I'm here to give you NFL Christmas Day first & anytime TD scorer picks for each game on Christmas Day, and I will certainly have a little bit of action myself, but I do not advise directing too much attention toward these games, with each one having the potential to get really out of hand. Eat some good food, enjoy your time around loved ones and, hopefully, we can cash a few of these bets throughout the day. Merry Christmas!
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NFL Christmas Day First & Anytime TD Scorer Picks (Week 17)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders
First Touchdown Scorer Pick: Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL) | +7900
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick: Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL) | +150
Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson has put together a really strong season, with at least four receptions in all but four of the Cowboys’ games this season, and seven receiving touchdowns. Ferguson leads all Dallas pass-catchers in terms of both red-zone targets and targets inside the 10-yard line, ranking fifth and sixth in those categories, respectively, which is pretty impressive considering the weapons in the Dallas offense.
Ferguson figures to have an A+ matchup on Christmas Day, taking on a Commanders defense that ranks in the bottom seven in points and passing yards per game, allowing the second-most total yards per game in the entire league. They've also been especially bad at defending the tight end position, allowing the seventh-most yards, third-most fantasy points and tied for allowing the second-most touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season.
Ferguson is overdue to get in the end zone, failing to score for five weeks after ripping off all seven of his touchdowns in a midseason seven-game span, and this is the perfect matchup for him to do just that. I'm taking Ferguson to score anytime, with a sprinkle on him as the game's first touchdown scorer.
Anytime Toucdown Scorer Pick: Deebo Samuel (WR – WSH) | +215
The Cowboys’ defense has been debatably worse than Washington's this season, ranking just below the Bengals in terms of points allowed per game. The passing game is where they're especially weak, allowing the most passing yards per game and conceding the most receiving yards, receiving touchdowns and fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts.
Enter Deebo Samuel, who leads the Commanders in high-leverage targets by a wide margin. Samuel has accounted for 27.5% of all red-zone targets to Commanders pass-catchers, and that number jumps up to 35% when they get inside the 10-yard line. Those target shares are good for 14th- and sixth-most in the entire NFL, respectively.
Samuel is always an option to get the ball out of the backfield as well, with one rushing touchdown on 13 carries this season. I think it's fair to assume he might be more likely to carry the ball this week as well, with Josh Johnson starting under center. Johnson puts a ceiling on all offensive personnel for Washington.
However, Samuel has the best chance of finding the end zone for the Commanders with his rushing and receiving upside, and his odds are slightly longer than those of Terry McLaurin. If you're taking a Commanders player to score in this game, go with Samuel.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
First Touchdown Scorer Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown | +650
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown | +100
The Lions need a big game from superstar wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown this week, as they now find their playoff hopes on life support after dropping three of their previous four games. St. Brown has put together another All-Pro caliber season, ranking top-five in both receptions (98) and receiving yards(1,194), with the league's second-most touchdowns (11).
St. Brown is a target monster where it matters the most, ranking second in the entire NFL in both red-zone targets and targets within the 10-yard line, and ranks tops in the NFL in terms of target share in both categories. Despite the Vikings being among the best in the NFL at defending wide receivers, St. Brown still reeled in nine balls for 97 yards when these teams matched up earlier in the season.
While I don't necessarily love the value at +550, the odds heavily imply that a Lions player will score the first touchdown, and St. Brown has done that on two separate occasions this season. I love St. Brown to score an anytime touchdown at even money or better, and I'll also take a sprinkle on him to record the game's first score.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
First Touchdown Scorer Pick: Denver Broncos D/ST | +1900
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick: Denver Broncos D/ST | +475
No Kansas City Chiefs Touchdown Scorer | +185
I'm getting a little funky with the nightcap, looking to take advantage of former seventh-round draft pick Chris Oladokun in his first career NFL start. For starters, this Broncos defense is once again elite, ranking in the top five in both points allowed per game and total yards allowed per game.
While keeping a team out of the end zone for the entirety of the game is certainly no easy task, this Broncos defense has done just that on three separate occasions this season. The odds market is certainly reflective of that, as ‘No Kansas City Chiefs TD’ is the most likely option compared to any other player on their offense to score.
We also literally just saw this happen to the Chiefs last week in a game that was started by Gardner Minshew, where the Chiefs failed to find paydirt against a bottom-seven Titans scoring defense. Regarding the D/ST touchdown, the chances of a turnover obviously skyrocket with Oladokun under center, elevating the possibility that the Broncos capitalize on one for a score.
They also have one of the more electric return men in the NFL in Marvin Mims, who has two return touchdowns in his three-year career. The Chiefs have been eliminated from the postseason for two weeks, and they're down their first- and second-string quarterbacks. I think they would much rather be with their families than play a meaningless football game on Christmas.
Give me the Chiefs’ offense to not score a touchdown in this game against one of the best defenses in the league, and I'll add a sprinkle on a Denver D/ST anytime touchdown with some couch change on the D/ST to score the first touchdown in case it happens right off the bat.