NFL Conference Championship Games Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2023)
Three of the four teams that advanced to the AFC and NFC Championship games covered the spread in their Divisional matchups. The Philadelphia Eagles had the easiest time, dominating the New York Giants for the third time this season. The Cincinnati Bengals won outright as six-point underdogs, and the San Francisco 49ers covered a four-point spread in their 19-12 win over the Dallas Cowboys. The Kansas City Chiefs were the only team not to cover, defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-20 in a game that saw Patrick Mahomes hobbled with an injury.
Here is a look at the early Conference Championship game lines and where you should expect them to move.
2023 NFL Playoffs Conference Championships Betting Guide >>
NFL Conference Championship Games Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2023)
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs opened as 1.5-point favorites. But with how good the Bengals looked in Buffalo on Sunday and Mahomes officially suffering a high ankle sprain, the line has started to drift in favor of the Bengals. Heading into the Divisional Round, most of the concern regarding the Bengals was their offensive line. However, they protected Joe Burrow without three starters, leading to a dominant offensive performance.
That offensive line performance, mixed with Mahomes’ injury, will likely give bettors more confidence in the Bengals. Yet, this game is still being played in Kansas City. It is incredibly unlikely that Mahomes doesn’t play on Sunday. With that said, this line may move to a pick ‘em, but it will drift back in favor of the Chiefs before kickoff.
Current Line: Chiefs -1
Predicted Final Line: Chiefs -1.5
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles opened as just 1.5-point favorites, but bettors did not take long to show their support for the No. 1 team in the NFC. The line has already moved a full point and is now inching closer to hitting and potentially passing through a key number.
This opening line seems more like a statement of disrespect for what the Giants accomplished this season than what the Eagles were able to do. The matchup between the Cowboys and the 49ers was expected to be close. So the 49ers will not be punished because it was a close game.
However, now that the lines have been released, bettors are jumping all over the Eagles. This trend should continue as the narrative that Brock Purdy will eventually play like a rookie continues to circulate. Look for this number to go through the key number and settle around four, which is probably where it should have opened anyway.
Current Line: Eagles -2.5
Predicted Final Line: Eagles -4
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