NFL Conference Championship Picks Against the Spread (2019)
Conference Championship weekend is upon us, which means there are just three games left in the NFL season. I know, it’s depressing, but wipe your tears and get ready, it’s time to talk football. These two games are the matchups we thought we would see and are the ones we hoped for since they feature rematches from two of the most exciting games this season.
The cream has risen to the top and the four top seeds will be facing off. Down in New Orleans, the Saints look to remain undefeated in postseason home games under Sean Payton. Kansas City is expecting it to be a cold one, possibly symbolic of hell freezing over and the Patriots not making it to the Super Bowl.
The storylines are endless, the excitement cannot be capped, and money is about to flow. I will give you my thoughts on each of the games, then give my NFL Conference Championship picks against the spread, as well as my projected score for the games.
NFC Championship
Rams at Saints (-3)
Weather: Dome
The Rams were in New Orleans during Week 9, which resulted in a 45-35 loss. After scoring 21 unanswered points, the game was in reach for the Rams, but the Saints scored 10 in the fourth quarter to put it away. But that was the regular season, and the Rams will be looking for a little revenge.
While the Saints were the best NFC team during the regular season, many thought that it was their defense that made them mortal. However, the defense has picked up their play, giving up just 16.9 points since Week 7, which obviously includes the shootout win in Week 9. But containing the Rams and their stellar running game will be a tough task.
The Saints ranked second in run defense this season, giving up just 80.2 yards per game. Some of this can be attributed to game flow since teams needed to pass to keep up with the Saints offense. The run defense took a big hit last week with big man Sheldon Rankins tearing his Achilles. This is a large hole to fill, especially with Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson coming to town.
On the other side, the Rams will have their hands full with Michael Thomas, who is coming off 12 catches for 171 yards and a touchdown. In Week 9, Thomas finished with 12 catches for 211 yards and a touchdown. Slowing him down needs to be the top priority for the Wade Phillips’ defense, but it is not a task I am confident they can accomplish. And even if they do, the Saints still have the dangerous deep threat of Ted Ginn Jr., Ben Watson working the middle, Alvin Kamara running multiple routes out of the backfield and split out, and who knows where Taysom Hill will be.
The Saints have won 15 of their last 17 home games, and I think they remain undefeated in the Superdome under Payton. I just think their offense will outmatch the Rams’, and I also think the over is a good bet.
Pick: Saints -3 (Medium Confidence), LAR 27 — NO 31
AFC Championship
Patriots at Chiefs (-3)
Weather: 21 degrees, 4% chance of snow
Both of these teams absolutely dominated their opponents last week, and the Chiefs will look to get their revenge on New England in the AFC Championship. The teams previously met back in Week 6 with the Patriots getting the 43-40 home win, but the Chiefs covered their 3.5-point underdog spread. However, this time around the Patriots are the road three-point underdogs.
If you’re expecting another 80-point game between these squads, think again. Despite being a porous defense all season long, the Chiefs allow just 17.4 points at home, which is third-best in the league. The Patriots have also averaged 12.2 points less on the road compared to at home. New England again dominated at home this year but were just 3-5 SU and ATS on the road. All five of these losses came from teams that did not make the playoffs, which on one hand looks bad, but we could also say they get up for tougher opponents.
The Chiefs top to bottom are the more talented team and they are playing at home. They are the team of the future, while the Patriots are nearing the end of the Brady/Gronk era. On one hand, this game seems like an easy bet. If we are just using our heads and want to analyze numbers, the Chiefs are the obvious play, but do you really want to bet against history? The Patriots are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games as underdogs. Tom Brady is at his best when he is overlooked, and Bill Belichick knows how to game plan to exploit an opponent’s weaknesses in the biggest games. This could quickly become one of those games where the Patriots grind out the clock with the running game and dink-and-dunk passing right from the start. This is a low confidence pick, but I’m not one to do my analysis by looking solely at stats and box scores. Tom Brady is also 24-4 in games under 30 degrees, so there’s that.
Pick: Patriots +3 (Low Confidence), NE 30 — KC 24
Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.