NFL Divisional Round Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2023)
Wild Card Weekend featured four underdogs covering against the spread. The Miami Dolphins lost by just three as 13.5-point underdogs, while the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars won outright as underdogs. Then there was the Baltimore Ravens, who covered as 8.5-point dogs.
However, if you got in on the Cincinnati Bengals at -6.5 at the beginning of the week, then you won your bet. As for the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers, they covered with ease.
Here is a look at the early Divisional Round lines and where you should expect them to move.
NFL Divisional Round Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2023)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs
The Jaguars were far from convincing in their 31-30 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, but to come back from down 27-0 shows how committed this team is to each other. They won’t have as much room for error this week against the Kansas City Chiefs, who will be well-rested coming into Saturday’s contest.
While this line is already north of the key number of seven, look for it to keep moving in favor of the Chiefs as kickoff approaches. The Jaguars don’t have much of a rushing attack, and running the ball is the best way to keep Patrick Mahomes at bay. Though the line should move slightly, it’s unlikely it reaches or passes through the key number of 10.
Current Line: Chiefs -8.5
Predicted Final Line: Chiefs -9.5
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
The Giants did what most thought they would do and defeated the Minnesota Vikings 31-24 in the Wild Card Round. Now, they will head on the road to face off against their division rival and the top team in the NFC.
The Eagles are 2-0 against the Giants this season, defeating them 48-22 in New York and 22-16 in the regular-season finale. In the finale, the Giants had Davis Webb under center, yet they still nearly knocked off a team playing for the top spot in the conference.
Because of that game and how good Daniel Jones looked in the Wild Card Round, expect this line to drop to at least seven. With how the Eagles played in their final four games and Jalen Hurts’ health still a bit of an unknown, this should drop below the key number.
Current Line: Eagles -7.5
Predicted Final Line: Eagles -6.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills
This is the matchup of the weekend, as the initial meeting between these two teams forced the NFL to undertake protocols never before seen. The Bengals were winning the first meeting between these two teams before Damar Hamlin’s injury caused the game to be suspended.
That score, plus the Bills’ terrible performance against the Dolphins, will be fresh on bettor’s minds. With this number in no man’s land, expect this number to drop in favor of the Bengals.
Yet, be wary. The Bengals’ offensive line is decimated. While this is not a unit many public bettors look at before placing a wager, sharps are likely to come in on the Bills on Sunday and perhaps move this line back to where it stands now.
Current Line: Bills -5
Predicted Final Line: Bills -4
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
The Seattle Seahawks were a trendy cover pick last weekend against the 49ers. While they led at halftime, they could not answer any of the 49ers’ blows in the second half. That dominant second-half performance was the best any team looked during Wild Card Weekend… until the Cowboys took the field on Monday night.
The Cowboys demolished Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While no one was expecting the Bucs to do much, Dak Prescott silenced a lot of his doubters with his four-touchdown performance. Brock Purdy was outstanding in his first playoff start, but how will he fair against a Cowboys’ defense that is much better than the Seahawks?
Look for this line to move in favor of Dallas, perhaps even hitting the key number, before settling at 3.5 on gameday.
Current Line: 49ers -4
Predicted Final Line: 49ers -3.5
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