NFL Divisional Round Line Movements & Sharp Money

It’s almost impossible to consume betting content without coming across the phrase “sharps.” “Sharps” refers to professional bettors/betting syndicates that influence lines due to the amount of money they bet and their reputations of profiting long-term. While it’s not uncommon for sharps to square off and take opposite sides, our goal here is to find games with seemingly unanimous sharp support.

Colts at Chiefs (-5, 57)
The Colts are the first of many trendy road underdogs this weekend, and I caution bettors to beware the trendy dog. Arrowhead is a tough place to play, and I’m a little surprised to see the Colts are receiving 58% of bets, especially considering the injuries they are dealing with in the secondary (they just put Mike Mitchell on IR and Malik Hooker is questionable). It seems bookmakers aren’t afraid to back the Chiefs this weekend though, as the line has remained around -5 all week despite more tickets coming in on the Colts.

Cowboys at Rams (-7, 50)
Here is another game where the public is on the road underdog (58% of bets), and again, I will urge caution. Despite the majority of bets coming in on the Cowboys, the line hasn’t budged at most books. Pinnacle, which is considered to be a very sharp book, actually moved the Rams to -7.5 +100. This indicates larger bets are on the Rams, and after looking at the money percentages, I can confirm that is the case. While it’s not a huge discrepancy, the 58% of bets on the Cowboys only makes up 56% of money wagered.

Chargers at Patriots (-4, 47.5)
It’s not often you get an opportunity to be contrarian while backing Tom Brady and the Patriots at home, but that is the case this weekend, as 61% of bets are currently on the Chargers. Despite this being the most lopsided game of the weekend in terms of betting tickets, we’re not seeing much line movement. I believe this line freeze is telling and that the books are okay with needing the Patriots to cover. The Chargers aren’t used to playing in cold weather, and they are also making their second trip east in the past two weeks for another 1:00 pm EST start. Luckily for the Chargers, the weather isn’t expected to be as bad as initially reported. Earlier in the week bettors hammered the under at 47 after hearing ominous weather forecasts, but after dropping as low as 45.5, the total has since been bet back up to 47/47.5.

Eagles at Saints (-8, 51)
The last game of the weekend is also the only game in which we’ve seen significant line movement. The Saints opened as 10-point favorites but were immediately bet down to -8 due to 55% of bets coming in on the Eagles. I’m sure many people remember the beat down that the Saints put on the Eagles in the regular season, but the Eagles have been a much different team with Nick Foles under center. The Saints are also banged up on the offensive line, which isn’t ideal considering the Eagles strength is their defensive line. These factors likely played into the live moving towards the Eagles, but I still think the Saints get the win at home. I also imagine the Saints will be used frequently in teasers this weekend, as bettors will be able to cross through several key numbers.

Alex S. is a correspondent at BettingPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive and follow him @FreeMoneyAlert.