NFL Divisional Round Picks Against the Spread (2019)

Three of the four Wild Card Weekend games resulted in upsets, but the BettingPros Expert Consensus went 4-0! With the four top seeds set to play some Divisional Round football, it’s less likely we see upsets. But you never know. The one thing we do know is there will be some terrific football this weekend. All of these teams have some sort of momentum, so something has to give.

All four games feature something special, so let’s go through each one. I will give you some of my thoughts on the matchups and give each of my NFL Divisional Round picks against the spread, as well as a projected score.

Saturday Games

Colts at Chiefs (-5)
Weather: 35 degrees, 35% chance of rain
Andrew Luck and the Colts are flying high, as they come into Kansas City to face Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. I’ll jump right into this by saying I do not trust the Colts’ offense at Arrowhead. This already is a tough place to play. T.Y. Hilton is less than 100%, and he has struggled to play on grass throughout his career. If Hilton gets shut down, the offense will struggle. I also believe the Chiefs can get to Andrew Luck, something teams failed to do during the season’s second half.

Kansas City has stumbled a bit down the stretch. Well, as much as averaging 30.25 points during the final four games is “struggling.” They needed this bye week to regroup, and Andy Reid needed this week to game plan, which he is notoriously good at when given extra time. Sammy Watkins should return to the lineup, which is just another guy to worry about for this young, but talented Colts defense.

This is just a completely different animal for the Colts. They will need to be rock solid on third downs to win this game, and I don’t think they will do it.

Pick: Chiefs -5 (Medium Confidence), IND 24 — KC 30

Cowboys at Rams (-7)
Weather: 58 degrees, 2% chance of rain
The Cowboys snuck by the Seahawks last week thanks to the coaching of Pete Carroll. I don’t think they’ll be as lucky this week against Sean McVay and the Rams. We know what Dallas wants to do this game: grind the clock with Ezekiel Elliott and keep the Rams offense off the field. The Rams’ run defense ranks dead last in yards allowed per rush, but some of this has to do with game flow. And while Wade Phillips-led defenses seem to struggle in the playoffs for whatever reason, this unit is good enough to force a Dak Prescott turnover or two. I believe the Rams offense will be effective when given the chance. So even if the defense surrenders more long drives than is ideal, the Rams will come away with the win here and cover the spread.

Pick: Rams -7 (Medium Confidence), DAL 20 — LAR 28

Sunday Games

Chargers at Patriots (-4)
Weather: 27 degrees, no chance of rain
The west coast team will be traveling east … blah blah blah. This narrative is overplayed and hasn’t proven correct over the past decade, so let’s make sure to throw it out early. The Chargers were in full control last week against the league’s best defense, which also happened to take place on the east coast. Melvin Gordon came away with an injured knee, but he is likely better than Los Angeles wants us to know. Hunter Henry, who tore his ACL back in May, will also be activated and out there at tight end some for L.A. I expect a strict snap count, but another talented receiver for Philip Rivers doesn’t hurt. The Chargers should be able to play their type of football much better this week against the Patriots.

The Patriots have not been their dominant selves this season, but New England in January is a dangerous place. The offense looks generally healthy, which is a nice change of pace. Unfortunately, the Chargers match up with the Patriots pretty well almost everywhere. The one area I expect New England to attempt to exploit is receivers out of the backfield, with James White and Rex Burkhead mostly. Still, it looks to be a fairly cold game. Tom Brady and his small hands struggle to grip the ball if it gets too cold, which could affect downfield plays. So if the balls are fully inflated, I’m leaning upset.

Pick: Chargers +4 (Low Confidence), LAC 24 — NE 27

Eagles at Saints (-8)
Weather: Dome
The Eagles double-doinked their way into the Divisional Round, but they have to travel to the infamous Superdome. Under Sean Payton, the Saints have not lost a playoff game at home. In other words, it will be a tough environment for Eagles on Sunday. Both offenses come into this game feeling pretty good about themselves, and I expect both units to find success. The over is very much in play, considering six of their seven home games with the starters went for at least 51 points. Both defensive units are underwhelming, but the Saints comes up with big plays in the Superdome.

This is a wide spread, but the Saints can cover it. Those siding with the Eagles straight up are doing so because of last year’s accomplishments. Well, it’s 2019. We should side with the much better team, who has a very real home-field advantage. Look for the Saints to be aggressive early and keep their foot on the pedal.

Pick: Saints -8 (Medium Confidence), PHI 21 — NO 31

Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.