NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)
Super Wild-Card Weekend was indeed super, giving us a Jaguars comeback win for the ages and some other entertaining games. There are four more playoff games on tap this weekend, and Sunday’s Bengals-Bills and Cowboys-49ers matchups are going to be must-see TV.
Even though we’re down to four playoff games this weekend after getting six last week, there’s still a nice selection of player props. We’ll get to this week’s plays in just a moment. But first, a quick recap of a disappointing 3-4 performance in the wild-card round.
The wins: Dak Prescott over 1.5 touchdown passes, Josh Allen over 257.7 passing yards, Travis Etienne over 75.5 rushing yards.
The losses: Kenneth Walker under 60.5 rushing yards, George Kittle over 44.5 receiving yards, Austin Ekeler over 35.5 receiving yards, Hayden Hurst under 31.5 receiving yards.
Here are my favorite selections for the divisional round …
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NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions
Last week: 3-4
Season record: 80-56
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday afternoon.
Brock Purdy UNDER 30.5 pass attempts
Purdy has made six starts for the 49ers following the season-ending injury to Jimmy Garoppolo. Purdy has thrown more than 30 passes in only one of those six starts, and he’s averaged 25.7 pass attempts in those games. The matchup against the Cowboys on Sunday is going to be Purdy’s biggest NFL test thus far. He hasn’t faced a defense that ranks in the top 12 in DVOA against the pass. Dallas ranks third. The Cowboys’ pass rush has generated a league-high 25.6% pressure rate. With linebacker Leighton Vander Esch healthy again after missing Weeks 16-18, the Cowboys are able to let linebacker Micah Parsons go after the quarterback on passing downs, and Parsons is one of the very best pass rushers in the league. This is a dangerous spot for a seventh-round rookie QB, and I expect the 49ers to run the ball early and often to take pressure off Purdy and keep the Dallas pass rush at bay.
Trevor Lawrence OVER 243.5 passing yards
The total for Jaguars-Chiefs is 53, with Kansas City an 8.5-point favorite. That means the Chiefs have an implied point total of 30.75. If things go according to the Vegas script, the Jaguars will have to throw aggressively to keep pace with the high-flying Chiefs. That was the way it worked out in Week 10, when the Chiefs beat the Jaguars 27-17 in Kansas City. Lawrence had 40 pass attempts in that game and threw for 259 yards. The Chiefs faced the third-most passing attempts during the regular season. Lawrence averaged 241.9 passing yards per game during the regular season, but I think we’ll see the Jaguars forced to throw more than usual this week.
Joe Burrow UNDER 279.5 passing yards
Rarely would I consider betting against Burrow, but he’s going to be playing behind a patchwork offensive line on Sunday when the Bills visit Buffalo, and that’s going to be a big problem for him. Starting right tackle La’el Collins is out for the season with a torn ACL and MCL. Starting left tackle Jonah Williams dislocated his kneecap last week and won’t play on Sunday. Starting right guard Alex Cappa is expected to be out with a severe ankle injury. With his offensive line decimated, Burrow threw for only 209 yards against the Ravens last weekend and averaged 6.5 yards per attempt. (Burrow averaged 7.4 yards per attempt during the regular season.) The Bills allowed 232.6 passing yards per game during the regular season. Expect Burrow to have trouble generating big plays in the passing game this week.
Travis Etienne UNDER 70.5 rushing yards
This goes hand in hand with my recommendation of the over on Trever Lawrence’s passing yardage. With the Jaguars 8.5-point underdogs, there’s a good chance they’ll be in chase mode against the Chiefs on Saturday, which would mean a pass-heavy game script. That was the case when the Jaguars lost to the Chiefs 27-17 in Week 10. Etienne had 11 carries for 45 yards in that game. Kansas City’s defense is a pass funnel, largely because opponents are so often in catch-up mode. The Chiefs faced the fourth-fewest rushing attempts by running backs during the regular season and gave up the eighth-fewest rushing yards to RBs.
Kadarius Toney UNDER 31.5 receiving yards
When Toney last faced the Jaguars in Week 10, he had four catches for 57 yards and a touchdown. It was his second-highest yardage total in his seven games with the Chiefs. In the five games he’s played since, Toney has caught eight passes for 102 yards, averaging only two targets a game over that span. Toney finished with fewer than 20 receiving yards in four of those five games. He played a season-high 28 snaps when he last faced Jacksonville, but Toney hasn’t played more than 19 snaps in any game since, and he’s averaged just 14.4 snaps over his last five games. With as few opportunities as Toney has been getting lately, it seems unlikely he’ll top this number.
A.J. Brown OVER 71.5 receiving yards
This is a momentum bet. Brown has cleared this number in four consecutive games and in five of the least six. Two of his last six games were against the Giants, his opponent this week, and Brown had 4-70-1 and 4-95-0 in those games. Since the beginning of December, Brown has averaged 9.8 targets, 5.8 catches and 110.8 receiving yards per game. In his two most recent postseason appearances, Brown had 6-83-1 vs. the Ravens in January 2021 and 5-142-1 vs. the Bengals in January 2022.
Hayden Hurst UNDER 33.5 receiving yards
This is the third straight week I’m betting the under on Hurst’s yardage total. I’ve gone 1-1 on those bets, but I’m sticking to the script even after Hurst went over his yardage total last week with four catches for 45 yards against the Ravens. Hurst has played nine games this season in which Bengals WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have both been active, and he had fewer than 30 receiving yards in six of those nine games. Hurst faces a Buffalo defense that has allowed just 38.5 receiving yards per game this season. With the Bengals missing several starting offensive linemen due to injury, including both offensive tackles, it’s possible that Hurst will run fewer routes than usual and be asked to help block Buffalo’s edge rushers.
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