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NFL Divisional Round Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions (Saturday)

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After byes in the Wild Card Round, the No. 1 seeds are making their playoff debuts on Saturday. They’re both sizable favorites.

I expect one of those matchups to be closer than the spread suggests, impacting the choices for our Same-Game Parlay (SGP). The other vast spread significantly impacted the legs of our second SGP.

Let’s dive into our favorite SGPs for the NFL Divisional Round Saturday games.

Saturday’s Best Same Game Parlay Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens beat the Texans 25-9 in Week 1. Baltimore was a 9.5-point favorite and covered. However, C.J. Stroud and the Texans have improved dramatically since then, and Baltimore hasn’t covered spreads that were at least a touchdown at a high rate. According to Covers, the Ravens were only 2-4 against the spread (ATS) when favored by at least 6.0 points this season. Meanwhile, the Texans were 6-2 ATS when they were underdogs and Stroud started.

The Texans can lean on Devin Singletary in a cushy matchup if they can keep it close, making the first two legs correlated. According to The 33rd Team, running backs have averaged 101 rushing yards per game at 4.8 yards per carry against the Ravens since Week 10.

Singletary has dominated Houston’s backfield opportunities and rushed at least 13 times in five of his previous six games. He also had over 59.5 rushing yards in each game with at least 13 carries during that span.

The outlook isn’t as bright for Gus Edwards. The “Gus Bus” likely won’t be force-fed as often if the game is close. Moreover, his matchup is brutal. Houston’s stout run defense has held running backs to only 73.1 rushing yards per game and a paltry 3.32 yards per carry since Week 10.

Edwards also didn’t often eclipse 52.5 rushing yards in the regular season, accomplishing the feat only six times in 17 games. He also had under 52.5 rushing yards in four of his previous six games. This isn’t a spot for the Edwards to get rolling, saying nothing of Dalvin Cook factoring into the backfield mix this week.

The Ravens won 13 games in the regular season. Justin Tucker had over 1.5 made field goals in eight of the victories. Baltimore won by 25, 37, 16, 32 and seven points in the wins when he had under 1.5 made field goals. In addition, he missed one of his two attempts in the seven-point win in that sample. So, Tucker is an excellent bet to convert over 1.5 field goals if the Ravens win, especially if it’s not a blowout.

Parlay Odds: +750

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have a blistering implied total of 30.0 points, and Christian McCaffrey is a touchdown machine. A -340 line for an anytime touchdown would usually be outrageous. However, it’s a reasonable price for “CMC.” San Francisco’s do-it-all running back scored a touchdown in 13 of 16 games in the regular season.

He was also a consistent source of rushing production. According to Pro-Football-Reference, CMC averaged 91.2 rushing yards per game, with a median of 94. He had over 91.5 rushing yards nine times. Furthermore, McCaffrey had over 91.5 rushing yards in eight of San Francisco’s 12 regular season wins, with an average and median of 101.2 and 100.5, respectively.

The matchup is stellar for McCaffrey. According to The 33rd Team, running backs averaged 95 rushing yards per game at 4.6 yards per carry against the Packers from Week 10 through Week 18. Understandably, Green Bay’s opponents chose to attack their soft run defense. Per RotoViz’s pace app, Green Bay’s opponents had a 48% situation-neutral rush rate since Week 16. McCaffrey should feast.

George Kittle can eat, too. He averaged 63.8 receiving yards per game in the regular season, with a median of 67.5. Conversely, the Packers have yielded 62.3 receiving yards per game to tight ends since Week 10. While Kittle has had some duds this year, which was bound to happen in a stacked offense, the matchup is ideal for a blow-up game from the former Hawkeye.

The Packers are 9.5-point underdogs. Jordan Love will be busy if the game goes according to the odds. Additionally, Love will likely have to play nearly flawlessly if Green Bay can spring the upset.

Fortunately, Love has shredded opposing defenses down the stretch. Since Week 10, Love has been Pro Football Focus’s (PFF’s) highest-ranked passer. In those 10 games, he had 2,710 passing yards (271.0 per game), 23 touchdowns and three interceptions while averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt. In that time frame, Love had over 249.5 passing yards eight times. Love is on fire, and FantasyPros projects him to have 258.7 passing yards against the 49ers.

Parlay Odds: +650

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:


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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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