NFL Divisional Round Sleeper Picks Player Predictions (2024)
Welcome to Sleeper Picks! Sleeper’s newest offering promised plenty of entertainment and action, and they delivered. We will list our top three picks for this week's NFL action. Similar to fantasy sports, the goal in Sleeper Picks is to draft a team of players based on who you think will perform better on the field. But with Sleeper Picks, you pick teams of 2-8 players from multiple teams based on your preferences and predict whether those players will score more or less than a predetermined amount. There are a number of ways to play and a variety of strategies to employ, and we’ll guide you through the process each week.
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NFL Divisional Round Sleeper Picks
2024 Record: 41-16
Derrick Henry (RB – BAL): OVER 74.5 rushing yards
Derrick Henry ran wild in the Wild Card round and should get another healthy dose of carries against the Bills this weekend. Henry popped for a season high 199 rushing yards when the Ravens faced the Bills in Week 4 but will be facing a healthy defensive front this time with Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano back in the fold and Von Miller healthy and ready for a playoff push. Henry should probably be good for the 100.5 full total, but with potential gamescript concerns, the presence of Justice Hill as the passing down back, and the improved front, the alt line seems like the much shrewder play (and has a much higher probability). King Henry has rushed for 138 or more rushing yards in four straight games. He has had at least 20 carries in each. Hit the More on King Henry for the Divisional Round at Sleeper Picks.
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET): OVER 74.5 rushing yards
Jahmyr Gibbs exploded when David Montgomery was on the shelf with an MCL injury. He should still be the lead back this weekend, but expectations should be tempered, at least as far as his rushing totals. Gibbs rushed for 109 or more rushing yards in each of the three games Montgomery missed. He cracked 91 rushing yards just two other times all season. A lot of this can be attributed to rushing volume, as Gibbs had at least 18 carries in two of the three contests and 23 in two of them (he had just two other games with 18 or more carries). The hope is that Gibbs will still see significant volume, but the full total is set far too high for Montgomery being back as Jahmyr has only hit the lower alt line number of 75 rushing yards in 10 of his 17 games this season. Jahmyr is too explosive to waste time on Less plays unless he is the only game of the day. Grab the More on the Gibbs alt line for the Divisional Round.
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR): OVER 4.5 receptions
The Rams passing game has been atrocious since Week 13. We saw bright spots against Buffalo and flashes against Minnesota last week, but the Rams have made a concerted effort to protect Matthew Stafford and to lean on Kyren Williams and the run game. With that said, Puka has still found a way to eat. Puka has seen at least eight targets in each of those contests, hauling in at least five in each, with seven or more in four of those six games. The full total of 7.5 is perhaps adjusting for projected gamescript, but whatever the case, we want no part of it on either side. Nacua is going to see his volume against the Eagles one way or another, and will be efficient enough to hit at least the five needed for the alt line. Push the More on Puka for Divisional Round weekend.
Writers note: The lines are constantly changing on Sleeper, so there is a high probability that one or all of the numbers may no longer be the same when you open your app. There are excellent values when they are first posted, with the only catch being that they are not all released at the same time. Vigilance could provide a solid return on investment this season, literally.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.