NFL Football Best Bets: Super Bowl LVI MVP (2022)
Itâs been two weeks since we got you your weekly âBest Betsâ, but weâre excited to be back for this special edition, focusing on the second most popular Super Bowl prop bet: Who will win the MVP. Given the unique nature of this piece, we are going to approach this a bit differently.
Best Bets: 37-25-2, Up 1558%
Prepare your Super Bowl Squares contests for friends and family using our tool >>
To start, like with any play we will dive into, we need to get some historical/macro context for a starting point:
Here is how the current odds are figuring out (per BetMGM on 2/6/21):
From a historical context, there are two main angles to consider when making a selection: Winning Team and Position.
The winning team angle is pretty straightforward: DONâT bet on the losing team. We can cite Chuck Howley all we want. It's just not going to happen as it hasnât since 1971 (and only one time ever at that).
As for position, for sharp bettors, the âMVP Betâ has mainly been a de facto/derivative value pick for âwho will win the game/and who is their QBâ. Hence, the 4.5 point favorite Rams QB, Matt Stafford, is priced accordingly at the lowest odds of +135.
*Special note: if you want to bet the Rams winning the Super Bowl, instead of taking 50 cents on the dollar (-200 odds), why not bet Matt Stafford to win the MVP at +135.
As for position, Here is how every yearâs MVP has averaged out:
As you can see, QBs dominate this space. As a general set of rules: If you MUST go non-QB offense, look for a likely 2+ TD scorer. If you want to play the wildcard/defensive route, try to find someone that will create a turnover (good luck, as longtime readers know that predicting turnovers is a foolâs errand).
With that said, we have compiled our best bets for Super Bowl MVP, sorted by our ACTUAL best bet (defined by most profitable, which = best *EV, or estimated value of the pick), down to âletâs have some funâ type bets, that we still see to have some value.
*As a reminder, âEVâ takes into account the likelihood of success x profit relative to the likelihood of failure x loss
Best Bet #1: Either (or both) Joe Burrow +225 AND Matt Stafford +135 to win Super Bowl MVP
Weâve mostly alluded to the reasoning above, but honestly, we are in this business to make money. So, we have a semi-interesting play for you.
And although other opportunities may seem more appealing (with their +1000s, etc.), the MVP is very likely to go to the winning QB. As such, why not bet both players, as even the lower payout has enough juice to make it a profitable angle?
With a $100 bet on BOTH players, ASSUMING the winning QB wins the MVP, youâre up $35-125 (17.5%-62.5% ROI).
Yes, there is a risk that a NON-QB wins the MVP, but a very small one. And better yet, as alluded to earlier, I highly recommend this derivative as a bet instead of a straight-up play. That is, whether you are backing the Rams or the Bengals, I highly recommend, instead, laying money on the respective QBs to win the MVP.
There really needs no other advanced analytics, etc., to cite on this, just the basic premise that we pretty much know that Super Bowl MVP in modern football goes to the winning QB. So why not make a couple bucks off that?
Bet: Either (or both) Joe Burrow +225 AND Matt Stafford +135 to win Super Bowl MVP
Best Bet #2 (i.e., the âif you donât bet a QBâ Best Bet): Cooper Kupp to win Super Bowl MVP +600
I know this is starting to come off a bit âchalkyâ, but we think there is a good reason for this play, particularly if you are not satisfied with the QB MVP payouts.
For starters, to break this down into a mathematical play, given the 6:1 odds, we only need about a 14% chance of this happening to be a profitable EV. Thatâs pretty low, especially given how critical Cooper Kupp is to the offense. And, as you could reason, the only way a WR wins the award (since his production is tied to the MVP-LIKELY QBâs production) is to stand out among his peers relative to the QB. Just by sheer numbers, we can see this is possible with Kuppâs volume. As we mentioned earlier, for a non-QB to become SB MVP, we need scores, and to get scores, we need touches. So why not go with the player that leads the NFL in team share of targets?
Additionally, the Bengals have not shown a proclivity to stop slot WRs, where Kupp runs 73% of his routes. As per SIS, The Bengals have struggled to defend slot receivers all season, allowing a 70.2% completion rate (ranked 25th) and 8.6 yards per target (ranked 27th), according to Sports Info Solutions.
Lastly, as Sharp Football astutely noted:
âKnowing the Bengalsâ tendency to bring standard pressure ä¸ more on that in the discussion on Matthew Staffordâs props ä¸ we could also see an elevated target share for Kupp in this game.
Stafford has been blitzed on less than 20% of his dropbacks in nine games this year ä¸ a reasonable expectation for the Bengalsâ blitz rate in the Super Bowl. In those nine contests, Kupp averaged 8.5 receptions for 108.6 yards, topping 100 yards five times.â
Add it all up, and if you want a non-QB MVP play, it simply has to be Cooper Kupp.
Bet: Cooper Kupp to win Super Bowl MVP +600
Best Bet #3 (the âlongshotâ): Von Miller to win Super Bowl MVP +4500
This is our LONGSHOT pick. In other words, this is the bet you donât wager legit money on, instead, âpizza moneyâ, etc. Better yet, this is the bet you play when you have only 5 bucks left in your account and are hoping for a miracle. By EV, we only need a 2-3% chance of this hitting to be profitable in the âlong-runâ. Yet, there are a few things in Millerâs favor here.
For starters, there are some subjective âfeel goodâ vibes behind this. That is, the MVP Vote is still a subjective vote, and the voters like this as a semi-feel good story. Additionally, Von has won an MVP before, which shouldnât mean much predictively, yet it canât hurt, right?
But most importantly, look at his matchup for this game (thanks to our friends at PFF):
As you can see above, he should not have much of an issue creating pressure. Zooming in a notch, this is magnified when you look at Millerâs Pass Rushing Grade (81.8) vs. Isaiah Princeâs Pass Pro Grade (51.4).
Finally, letâs take a look at Millerâs pressure rate vs. (the Bengals famed) empty set:
Thatâs the fourth-best in the league in generating pressure as an individual vs. the set we are all expecting to see a lot from the Bengals.
If youâre looking for a âlottery ticketâ MVP play, go with Von Miller.
Bet: Von Miller to win Super Bowl MVP +4500
Check out all of our Super Bowl LVI sportsbook offers >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section -- including How to Make Money Betting on Sports -- or head to more advanced strategy -- like Win Totals Strategy for Sports Betting -- to learn more.