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NFL Football Best Bets: Week 3 (2021)

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Two weeks into the NFL season, we need to stay disciplined and understand our priors should still be weighed (roughly 70/30) higher than 2021 performances.

We have had a solid start to the season and only nearly missed being a perfect 6-0. With that, here are the top picks our model has for Week 3.

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Season Total: 5-1, Up 531% (Won -115, -110, -120, +156, +105 bets, lost -100)

Best Bet #1: Minnesota to win SU (+105) over Seattle

You can read more in-depth about this game in my weekly preview, but this selection simply comes down to this:

  • HC Zimmer is surprisingly good ATS (2nd best in NFL since he took over at 59%)
  • The Vikings have a very strong home-field advantage that was not observed during the COVID season. As their first home game, I don’t think the market has incorporated this in its line (21-9-3 ATS)
  • The Vikings tactically match up well with the Seahawks, especially on offense (deep ball play especially)

I lucked out and jumped on this back when it was -2 and closer to +135, but I do still think there is value here is you can snag it at + Moneyline.

Pick: Minnesota + 105 SU

Best Bet #2: Emmanuel Sanders’ OVER 4 Receptions

Yes, there is a lot of juice on most props bets, but I think given the confidence levels in certain opportunities, there is still excess value left on the table. This prop was presented to us by Sharp Football Analytics. It’s a very smart play.

Essentially, although Sanders has proven to be a productive WR in the NFL for some time now, his slow start has caused him to hit the under on his first two reception props, both at 4.5. Given this, the market is likely to price this closer to 4, and I agree he is due for a productive game. Much of this choice has to do with a the matchup and can be summed up as:

  • William Jackson is very likely to shadow Diggs, especially with the amount of man coverage Washington has played this season (almost 2x from last year)
  • Because of this shift, it’s likely Sanders will face Benjamin St. Juste.
  • St. Juste has a PFF grade of 43 and coverage grade even worse at 41.8 through 2 games.

This is just the type of situation Sanders has been overlooked in during his career. Couple that with a plus matchup and the market being low on him, and this provides a positive EV betting opportunity.

Pick: Emmanuel Sanders OVER 4-5 Receptions

Best Bet #3: Zach Wilson Over 1.5 Interceptions (+150)

We have been perfect playing interception totals thus far using our model. Granted, it’s always scary to play a QB MORE than the normal .5 interceptions, but we think there is value here:

  • Given this is a +150 bet, it’s about the same value as a >.5 at the normal -110. In other words, zooming out, we are saying “This QB will throw more picks than the market expects.” It just so happens they expect 1.5 vs. o.5 (and is priced fairly).
  • Wilson is coming off a game with multiple turnover-worthy plays, is a rookie playing a road game vs. a tough defense, and will be in Denver, where the altitude makes things challenging early in the year.
  • This is our interception model’s second highest interception total of the week. This is mainly because of how aggressive Wilson has been throwing into tight windows, how long he holds on to the ball, and how low his CPOE has been (accuracy +/- expectation).
  • Finally, besides Wilson’s current archetype, he faces PFF’s 4th rated Defensive Coverage Unit.

With all these factors on our side, we feel good this is a positive EV bet.

Pick: Zach Wilson >1 .5 Interceptions this week

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Ryan Newman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.