NFL Futures: 10 Player Prop Bets the Experts Love
Sportsbooks are gearing up for the start of the NFL season with dozens of intriguing player props – and some have produced unanimous results from our team of analysts.
Dan Harris, Mike Tagliere, Bobby Sylvester and Kyle Yates have provided their picks for every major player prop available on FanDuel Sportsbook; we’ve added our consensus FantasyPros site projections into the mix, as well. The result: 10 stone-cold locks that bettors would be wise to consider. Here’s the complete list of unanimous plays:
Check out our complete list of 2020 player prop bets here >>
| PLAYER | PROP | HARRIS | TAGS | BOBBY | YATES | PROJ. |
| Dak Prescott | 27.5 passing TDs | OVER | OVER | OVER | OVER | OVER |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2,099 total yards | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER |
| Christian McCaffrey | 15.5 total TDs | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER |
| Miles Sanders | 1,499.5 total yards | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER |
| Zach Ertz | 899.5 receiving yards | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER |
| Zach Ertz | 7.5 receiving TDs | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER |
| Jerry Jeudy | 824.5 receiving yards | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 8.5 receiving TDs | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER |
| Justin Jefferson | 5.5 receiving TDs | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER |
| Denzel Mims | 5.5 receiving TDs | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER | UNDER |
Dak Prescott OVER 27.5 passing TDs: Prescott has surpassed 27.5 passing touchdowns just once in his career, but it was last year when he set career highs in pass attempts (596), passing yards (4,902), and yards per attempt (8.2). And the best part was that Prescott totaled his 30 passing touchdowns last year despite the Cowboys passing just 45% of the time in the red zone, fourth lowest mark in the league. The reason was that Prescott made the most of his limited opportunities, with 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions last year in the red zone. With improved options in CeeDee Lamb and Blake Jarwin replacing Randall Cobb and Jason Witten, Prescott has even more weapons at his disposal, and should continue to have the trust of both Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore close to the goal-line. With Prescott looking for a big payday, expect him to do what he can to maximize his touchdown stats and sail clear of the 27.5 total.
-Dan Harris (@danharris80)
Christian McCaffrey UNDER 2,099 total yards AND 15.5 total TDs: Christian McCaffrey was the 15th running back to post over 2,099 yards from scrimmage in a single season over the past 15 seasons. Not a single one repeated the accomplishment in back to back years. You have to go all the way back to 2002-2003 when LaDainian Tomlinson and Priest Holmes did it (Holmes actually did it three straight years; Marshall Faulk did it four straight from 1998-2001). You can say “well CMC is really freakin’ good,†and I’d agree – but the same was true of Le’Veon Bell, DeMarco Murray and David Johnson too along with all of the others. What McCaffrey did last year is just unsustainable. The same is true from a touchdown perspective, albeit not quite as much. There is some precedent for repeating over 15.5 total touchdowns, as Todd Gurley went for 19 then 21 in 2017 and 2018. You have to go all the way back, again, to LaDainian Tomlinson 13 years ago, though to find the same feat (he did if FIVE straight seasons). No matter how great Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster or LeSean McCoy have been, Gurley is the only one of the past 18 examples to repeat over 15.5 touchdowns so the odds are heavy against McCaffrey in a lackluster Panthers’ offense.
-Bobby Sylvester (@bobbyfantasypro)
Miles Sanders UNDER 1,499.5 total yards: We’ve now watched Doug Pederson in action for four years, yet no one wants to believe that he’s going to have a running back by committee approach. Did we forget how good Ryan Mathews looked in 2016? He played Darren Sproles, Wendell Smallwood, and Kenjon Barner. He then split the work with LeGarrette Blount, Corey Clement, Jay Ajayi, and Smallwood in 2017. Josh Adams, Smallwood, Clement, and Ajayi in 2018. Then, with Sanders on the team, he split the work between him, Jordan Howard, and Boston Scott. Do we not see a trend? Yes, Sanders played a ton towards the end of 2019, but that was out of necessity, as Howard, Sproles, and every wide receiver on their team was hurt. The Eagles have added a lot of receiving talent and have been rumored to be interested in Devonta Freeman and/or LeSean McCoy. None of those rumors should surprise you. Sanders is a phenomenal football player, but if massive opportunity isn’t available, 1,500 total yards is too large of a number that only eight running backs hit in 2019.
-Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL)
Zach Ertz UNDER 899.5 receiving yards AND 7.5 total TDs: Zach Ertz has been a fantasy darling over the past several years, but it’s been in large part due to the vacancy of receiving weapons around him. It’s been no secret that Philadelphia’s receiving options have struggled to stay healthy, which opens the door for Ertz to see more targets than you would expect. This season, the Eagles made sure to revamp the WR room and bring in more competition for targets. With Dallas Goedert continuing to ascend, Jalen Reagor now in the fold, and DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery back healthy, it’s going to be difficult to see Ertz find the necessary targets to reach these lines. It’ll take everything falling apart again in Philly this season for Ertz to jump above this mark.
-Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL)
Jerry Jeudy UNDER 824.5 receiving yards: This has nothing to do with Jeudy’s talent, but 824.5 is a big number for a rookie, especially given Jeudy’s situation. Only seven rookie receivers over the last five years have reached that total, and many of them (Terry McLaurin, A.J. Brown, etc.) have been the top option for their teams. That’s not the case for Jeudy, obviously, with Courtland Sutton the clear top receiver. And not only did the Broncos rank ninth in run rate last year at 43%, but they added Melvin Gordon to the fold, suggesting they plan to continue to lean on the rushing game as much as possible to ease the burden on Drew Lock. Finally, let’s not forget how atypical this offseason is. It is difficult for any rookie to get up to speed on his new playbook with regular training camps, so all of them will be a step behind this year and have a lack of time to build chemistry with their quarterbacks. Jeudy, and any rookie wide receiver, is going to have a difficult time trying to top 824.5 receiving yards.
-Dan Harris (@danharris80)
DeAndre Hopkins UNDER 8.5 receiving TDs: DeAndre Hopkins is a phenomenal talent and you don’t find a single person who would argue otherwise. Even so, he averages a receiving touchdown once every 18.0 targets since his breakout five seasons ago. That’s a 78 game sample size so you can feel confident in projecting it forward. It isn’t as though we except that rate to change, but rather the 166 targets per season. He is moving away from an offense with DeShaun Watson throwing and only Will Fuller to compete with for targets. Now he has a quality, but less dominant passer in Kyler Murray plus he’ll have to fend off Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald and Kenyan Drake for targets. It is tough to imagine him finishing north of the 162 targets he would need (at 1 TD per 18) to reach the 9 touchdowns mark. More likely, he will sit south of 140 and that’s if he can manage to stay on the field for all 16 games.
-Bobby Sylvester (@bobbyfantasypro)
Justin Jefferson UNDER 5.5 receiving TDs: I’m a big fan of Jefferson, but scoring six touchdowns as a rookie wide receiver isn’t the easiest thing to do, especially when you play for an offense that threw the ball just 465 times last season. Think about it this way: Stefon Diggs is a phenomenal talent and was Kirk Cousins’ primary option in a season where Adam Thielen missed half the year, yet he scored just six touchdowns himself in 2019. The Vikings have great options in the red zone with Thielen, Dalvin Cook, Kyle Rudolph, and Irv Smith Jr., which is why leaning on the under makes sense.
-Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL)
Denzel Mims UNDER 5.5 receiving TDs: Denzel Mims fell into a great situation for Dynasty Fantasy Football purposes, but it’s difficult to see how he makes an immediate impactful contribution right out of the gate. Rookie WRs typically don’t perform well in their first season and this is going to be a low scoring offense yet again in 2020. Because of that, it’s difficult to see Mims getting 6 or more receiving TDs. While I do believe he’ll be close to this mark, it’s simply too high of a line for me to feel confident in taking the over. In those situations, I’m more comfortable playing it conservatively and taking the under.
-Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL)
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